20231026-东吴证券-中国中免-601888.SH-2023年三季报点评_业绩符合预期_海棠湾项目即将投运_3页_450kb

报告摘要

Key Financial Highlights: China No.1 Duty Free's Q1-Q3 2023 performance showed revenue of CNY50.8 billion, up 29% year-on-year, and attributable profit of CNY52.06 billion, representing a 125% increase YoY, slightly exceeding forecasts. Q3 alone saw revenue grow 279% YoY and profit surge 942% YoY relative to 2022, with maintained "Buy" recommendation from East Wu Securities.
Performance Analysis: Gross margins improved to 34.3% in Q3, up from 32.5% in Q2, indicating recovery. Sales expenses rose 114 percentage points YoY to 17.8% of revenue due to international tourist客流, while net profit margin was 9.0%, unchanged sequentially but higher than prior periods.
Market Drivers: Hainan's tourism sector drove growth, with 2023Q1-Q3 off-island luxury sales up 286% YoY, reaching CNY349.4 billion, and tourist arrivals reaching 253 million, supporting recovery in sales volume and market share.
Future Outlook: Management expects continued strength from new policies and the upcoming海棠湾 project openings, with revised forecasts for growing profits and revenue. Risk factors include economic uncertainty and policy execution risks, but upside remains strong given high tourism demand.

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