2018年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Mali_Tenth_Review_under_the_Extended_Credit_Facility_Arrangement_and_Request_for_Waiver_of_Nonobservance_of_a_Performance_Criterion_50页_1mb

IMF Country Report No. 18/360: Mali

Core Content

This document outlines the Tenth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement for Mali, which was approved by the IMF Executive Board on December 10, 2018. The review included a request for a waiver of nonobservance of a performance criterion, specifically related to tax revenue shortfalls. The review enabled the disbursement of SDR 31.65 million (approximately US$43.85 million), bringing the total disbursements under the ECF arrangement to SDR 186.6 million (about US$258.53 million) or 100 percent of quota.

The ECF arrangement was initially approved in 2013 and has been augmented and extended in 2016 and 2017 to address evolving economic challenges. These include security crises, fluctuating commodity prices, and adverse weather conditions. The program has aimed to achieve macroeconomic stability, poverty reduction, revenue mobilization, and improvement of public financial management (PFM).

Main Views and Key Information

Economic Performance and Outcomes

• Macroeconomic stability was restored despite ongoing insecurity, volatile commodity prices, and adverse weather.
• Real GDP growth averaged around 5.3% annually from 2013 to 2017, driven by performance in agriculture, services, and construction.
• Inflation remained subdued, staying below the WAEMU convergence criterion of 3%.
• Tax revenue grew at an average of 0.8% of GDP per year and reached the WAEMU average, though it did not meet the target of 20% of GDP.
• Poverty and inequality remain high, requiring more inclusive policies in the medium term.

Performance Targets and Compliance

• All continuous performance targets were met, with only one end-June 2018 quantitative target not achieved.
• Gross tax revenue fell short by 1.2% of GDP, due to weak taxpayer compliance, fraud, and uncertainties ahead of the July presidential election.
• The ceiling on government bank and market financing was met with a significant margin.
• External payment arrears and new external debt contracting were met, as well as the basic fiscal balance target.

Program Implementation and Challenges

• Structural reforms have been slow to implement, with only four out of ten structural benchmarks met by end-October 2018.
• Key challenges include weak institutional capacity, vested interests, and political economy issues.
• Reforms that were delayed include:
  • Raising the tax exemption threshold from CFAF 12.5 million to CFAF 100 million.
  • Establishing the Treasury Single Account (TSA) due to technical and administrative difficulties.
  • Reducing non-collateralized non-performing loans (NPLs) and non-operating assets (NOAs) in the banking sector.
  • Implementing the oil price formula systematically.
  • Taxpayer compliance improvement plan delayed due to technical committee validation issues.

Fiscal and Structural Policies

• The 2019 draft budget provides a sound basis for fiscal policy and reflects the commitment to meeting the WAEMU fiscal deficit target.
• The authorities are seeking to build fiscal buffers, protect outlays on infrastructure, social, and human capital, and maintain sustainable public finances.
• The IMF staff supports the request for a waiver of nonobservance of the gross tax revenue performance criterion.
• Structural reforms are needed to promote private sector activity, economic diversification, and inclusive growth.

Outlook and Risks

• The near-term macroeconomic outlook is favorable, but downside risks include fragile security conditions, fluctuating commodity prices, and weather-related shocks.
• Current account deficits are expected to remain large due to higher oil prices and limited growth in export revenues.
• Fiscal risks persist due to inadequate revenue collection, increased fraud, and organizational inefficiencies.
• Public debt remains a concern, with public debt as a percentage of GDP increasing from 26.4% in 2013 to 39.5% in 2023.

Supporting Documents and Contacts

• The staff report and Letter of Intent were released for public access, with market-sensitive information excluded.
• The IMF's transparency policy allows for the deletion of sensitive information in published reports.
• The report is available from the IMF Publication Services at the provided address and contact details.

Summary of Key Figures

Conclusion

The IMF's Tenth Review for Mali was completed successfully, enabling further disbursement under the ECF arrangement. Despite the economic challenges and security risks, the program has achieved macroeconomic stability and fiscal targets. However, structural reforms and fiscal sustainability remain key priorities for the authorities. The IMF staff supports the waiver request and calls for continued efforts in revenue mobilization, public financial management, and governance improvements to ensure long-term economic stability and inclusive growth.