2015年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Mali_Third_Review_Under_the_Extended_Credit_Facility_Arrangement_Request_for_Waiver_of_Performance_Criteria_and_Request_for_Modification_of_Performance_Criteria_85页_1mb

Summary of the IMF Third Review for Mali under the ECF Arrangement

Core Content

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the third review of Mali's performance under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement, approving a disbursement of SDR 4 million (approximately US$5.6 million), bringing total disbursements to SDR 18 million (about US$25.3 million). The review occurred in the context of a still fragile security environment and included a request for waiver of performance criteria and modification of certain performance indicators.

Main Points

Economic Recovery and Outlook

• Mali's economic recovery is gaining momentum, driven by improved cereal production and manufacturing growth in 2014.
• Real GDP growth reached 7.2% in 2014, up from 1.7% in 2013 and 0% in 2012.
• Inflation remained low at 0.9% in 2014, with no significant external or domestic cost pressures.
• The current account deficit widened to 7.3% of GDP in 2014, partly due to lower gold production and increased imports.
• The outlook for 2015 is positive, with the trade deficit expected to narrow to 4% of GDP due to lower petroleum imports.

Performance Criteria and Program Outcomes

• Program performance was mixed in 2014 but improved in early 2015.
• The basic fiscal balance slipped to -1.6% of GDP in 2014, below the program target of -0.9%.
• Tax revenue in 2014 was 14.9% of GDP, 0.9% below the target, due to customs administration conflicts and administrative weaknesses.
• By end-March 2015, tax revenue returned to track, exceeding the gross tax revenue floor by CFAF 7 billion.
• The authorities requested a waiver for the 2014 performance criteria on tax revenue and government financing, citing administrative issues and the impact of lower international oil prices.

Fiscal Policy and Budget Adjustments

• The 2015 draft supplementary budget is a temporary measure to address pressing spending needs, including military expenditure and deferred payments.
• Tax revenue is targeted to increase by 1.8% of GDP through higher taxation on oil, telecommunications, financial transactions, alcohol, and tobacco, as well as reforms in tax and customs administration.
• The supplementary budget allows for a relaxation of the basic fiscal deficit to 0.8% of GDP and the overall deficit (cash basis) to 5.0% of GDP, partly due to arrears payments and delayed expenditures.

Key Policy Recommendations

• Maintain macroeconomic stability by keeping the basic fiscal balance close to zero and aligning the overall fiscal balance with debt sustainability.
• Accelerate tax and customs administration reforms to improve tax revenue collection and broaden the tax base.
• Strengthen public financial management and tighten expenditure control.
• Implement reforms to improve the business environment, particularly in the financial and electricity sectors, and enhance anti-corruption efforts.

Risks and Challenges

• The economic outlook is vulnerable to adverse weather conditions, security instability, and fluctuations in international commodity prices.
• High dependence on gold and cotton exports exposes Mali's balance of payments to international price volatility.
• A rapid increase in oil prices could slow down recovery, given Mali's reliance on petroleum imports.
• The volatile security situation may undermine business and consumer confidence, discourage donor support, and hinder progress.

Program Implementation and Support

• The program includes a multi-year military programming law, delayed wage increases, and payments for the peace agreement.
• The 2015 supplementary budget incorporates an increase in grants due to the cancellation of a €63 million debt by France and potential aid from China and other non-traditional partners.
• The budget deficit is expected to be financed equally by donors and the regional financial market, with government financing increasing by about one third in 2015.
• The implementation of reforms in tax and customs administration, along with improved coordination between these bodies, has contributed to better tax auditing and revenue collection.

Conclusion

The IMF acknowledges the progress made by Mali in improving public financial management and tax administration, while also highlighting the need for continued reforms to ensure sustainable economic growth and recovery. The approval of the disbursement and the requested waivers reflect the Fund's recognition of the challenges faced by the country and the importance of addressing them through structural reforms and improved governance.