2016年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Ghana_Second_Review_Under_the_Extended_Credit_Facility_Arrangement_and_Request_for_Waiver_for_Nonobservance_of_Performance_Criterion_100页_1mb

Summary of the Second Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Request for Waiver for Nonobservance of Performance Criterion for Ghana

Core Content

This document outlines the results of the Second Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement for Ghana, including the IMF Executive Board's decision to approve a US$114.6 million disbursement and grant a waiver for the nonobservance of the performance criterion on non-accumulation of external arrears. The review took place in October–November 2015, and the staff report was finalized on December 23, 2015.

Main Points

1. Program Implementation and Performance

• The program implementation has been broadly satisfactory.
• All performance criteria were met by end-August 2015, except for the non-accumulation of external arrears, which was not observed due to small payment delays.
• The indicative inflation target was missed by more than 2 percentage points, primarily due to exchange rate depreciation and utility tariff increases.
• Social protection spending exceeded the indicative target, showing progress in the program.

2. Economic Outlook

• The non-oil real GDP growth for 2015 was revised upward due to better-than-expected performance in the first half of the year.
• Total GDP growth was lower due to reduced oil and gas production.
• 2016–2017 growth is expected to rebound with the normalization of electricity provision and increased hydrocarbon output.
• Inflation is expected to remain above the upper band of the target until the end of 2016.
• The economic outlook remains difficult, with downside risks due to the electricity crisis, cocoa harvest, and gold production.

3. Fiscal Consolidation

• The 2015 fiscal consolidation target is on track.
• The 2016 budget aims for a stronger fiscal consolidation than initially planned, with a target of reducing the overall cash deficit by 2% of GDP.
• The government debt ratio continues to increase, and financing conditions remain tight, necessitating more aggressive fiscal adjustment.
• The 2016 budget includes one-off measures to address election costs and fiscal adjustments, including:
  • Sale of communication spectrum: 0.4% of GDP
  • Introduction of a new income tax act: 0.3% of GDP
  • Implementation of ECOWAS Common External Tariff: 0.2% of GDP
  • Administrative measures to improve tax compliance: 0.2% of GDP
  • Realignment of mandatory transfers to statutory funds: 0.7% of GDP
  • Rationalization of internally generated funds: 0.1% of GDP
  • Total fiscal measures: 1.9% of GDP

4. Debt Management and Financing

• The gross financing needs for 2016 are expected to decline, which will help ease financing conditions.
• The Eurobond issuance in October 2015 (US$1 billion) reduced pressures on the domestic debt market.
• Domestic financing conditions remain tight, with T-bill and bond yields elevated and medium-term debt issuance undersubscribed.
• The 2016 budget aims to reduce reliance on T-bills and lengthen domestic debt maturities.

5. Monetary Policy and Inflation

• The Bank of Ghana (BoG) has tightened monetary policy, raising the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) to 26%.
• The real rate increased by 2%, and monetary conditions have tightened.
• Inflation remains elevated, with headline inflation at 17% and core inflation at 23% in the second half of 2015.
• The BoG is expected to further tighten monetary policy if inflationary pressures persist.
• The amended Bank of Ghana Act and foreign exchange market deepening are key reforms to improve monetary policy transmission.

6. Financial Sector Stability

• Asset quality in the financial sector has deteriorated, particularly in the manufacturing sector.
• The non-performing loan ratio increased from 11% in June 2015 to 14% in October 2015.
• Provisioning ratios have declined, indicating increased risk.
• The BoG has taken steps to increase financial sector resilience, including improving asset classification and implementing new banking laws.

7. Structural Reforms

• The structural reform agenda is progressing more slowly than expected.
• One out of four structural benchmarks has been completed.
• Key structural benchmarks:
  • Financial stability: Completed with a bank asset quality review and a provisioning plan for SOEs.
  • Public Financial Management (PFM): Delayed, but the PFM reform strategy was approved by the cabinet in June 2015.
  • Revenue administration: Partially implemented with the adoption of the presumptive income tax and proposed VAT registration threshold revisions.
  • Tax policy: Partially implemented with reduced tax exemptions and new tax rates for free zone companies.

8. Debt Sustainability

• The Debt Sustainability Analysis by the IMF and World Bank was conducted.
• The non-accumulation of external arrears criterion was not met due to small payment delays.
• The IMF granted a waiver based on corrective measures being taken by the authorities.
• The new medium-term debt management strategy is welcomed to reduce financing risks and improve debt sustainability.

9. Program Modality and Financing Assurances

• The IMF Executive Board approved the second review and waiver.
• The total disbursements under the ECF arrangement now reach SDR 249.075 million (about US$343.7 million).
• The program is expected to continue with new targets for 2016, including fiscal consolidation, monetary tightening, and structural reforms.

Key Information

• Date of Review: October 21 to November 5, 2015.
• Disbursement Approved: SDR 83.025 million (about US$114.6 million).
• Total Disbursements: SDR 249.075 million (about US$343.7 million).
• Program Duration: Three years, with a total SDR 664.20 million (about US$918 million) approved in April 2015.
• Performance Criteria: All were met except for non-accumulation of external arrears.
• Fiscal Deficit (2015 Jan–Aug): 4.7% of GDP, lower than budgeted.
• Primary Balance (2015 Jan–Aug): 0.2% of GDP, indicating a surplus.
• Exchange Rate: Cedi stabilized in August 2015, supported by foreign exchange inflows and investor confidence.
• Inflation: Headline inflation reached 17% in the second half of 2015, with core inflation at 23%.
• Non-Performing Loans (NPLs): Increased to 14.1% in October 2015.
• Arrears Clearance: GH¢ 2.3 billion (1.5% of GDP) planned for 2016.
• Eurobond Issuance: US$1 billion in October 2015, with a higher coupon than peers due to tight global financial conditions.

Conclusion

The IMF acknowledges the progress made in Ghana's economic program but emphasizes the need for continued fiscal discipline, monetary tightening, and structural reforms to ensure debt sustainability and macroeconomic stability. The waiver for the external arrears criterion was granted due to corrective measures, and the 2016 budget is expected to further consolidate the fiscal position and reduce financing risks.