2015年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Haiti_Eighth_Review_Under_the_Extended_Credit_Facility_and_Request_for_Waiver_of_Nonobservance_of_Performance_Criterion_50页_1mb

Haiti: Eighth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility and Request for Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion

Core Content Overview

This document outlines the results of the eighth review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) for Haiti, conducted by the IMF staff in 2014. It includes the Staff Report, Press Release, Statement by the Executive Director, and related technical documents. The review assesses economic developments, fiscal and monetary policies, and the possibility of a new ECF arrangement. It also highlights the policy recommendations and risks associated with the current and future economic outlook.

Main Points of the Review

1. Program Performance and Waiver Request

• The final review under the ECF was conducted.
• The March 2014 performance criterion on net international reserves (NIR) was met, but the performance criterion on net central bank credit to the central government was not observed due to lower-than-programmed treasury bill placements.
• A waiver is justified as the deviation was minor and the fiscal deficit was lower than anticipated.
• The zero ceiling on the contracting or guaranteeing of public sector non-concessional external debt with maturities up to one year was observed.

2. Economic Outlook for FY2015

• GDP growth is projected at 3.0–3.5%, with downside risks due to volatile oil prices and uncertainty around elections.
• Inflation is expected to reach 6.5% (end-of-period).
• The current account deficit is projected to decrease to 4.5% of GDP, driven by lower oil prices and a reduced fiscal deficit.

3. Fiscal Issues

• The fiscal deficit for FY2014 was 6.3% of GDP, 0.4% below program projections.
• The FY2015 budget aims to reduce the deficit to 3.6% of GDP.
• Fuel price increases in October contributed to fiscal savings of at least 1% of GDP.
• Domestic revenues reached 12.3% of GDP in FY2014, below projections due to fuel price freeze, but were more than offset by lower spending.
• Tax reforms and improved tax administration are expected to increase revenues by 0.3% of GDP.
• Budget support is expected to decline to 0.8% of GDP in FY2015.

4. Monetary and Financial Policies

• The central bank (BRH) tightened monetary policy in mid-FY2014, but loosened it towards the end of the year.
• Exchange rate depreciation of 4% in FY2014, faster than recent years, affected inflation and fiscal sustainability.
• Base money remained almost unchanged due to offsetting currency in circulation and gourde deposits.
• Broad money grew by 8.8% y/y, below nominal GDP growth.
• Non-performing loans (NPLs) increased slightly but banks remain well-capitalized and profitable.
• Reserve requirements were increased to 37% for gourde deposits and 40% for foreign currency deposits.
• The exchange rate is still used as a nominal anchor, and international reserves are expected to be maintained at 4–5 months of prospective imports.

5. Structural Reforms

• Progress was made in several structural reforms, including:
  • Tax administration improvements, though challenges remain with e-payment systems and IT integration.
  • Treasury Single Account (TSA) implementation is ongoing, with new accounting centers established.
  • Public Investment Program (PIP) is under review, with the goal of creating a unified investment framework.
  • Electricity sector reforms include private management contracts and cost reduction measures.
• The ministry of economy and finance has revised tax codes and is reducing tax exemptions.
• A new mining code is being prepared for parliamentary adoption.

6. Risks and Challenges

• Downside risks include:
  • Reduced Petrocaribe inflows due to lower oil prices, which could impact the fiscal balance.
  • Political instability and delayed elections could hinder reforms and increase public expectations.
  • Weather events and commodity price shocks remain significant risks.
• The reduction in oil prices could lead to a decrease in fiscal revenues by 1.5% of GDP and lower Petrocaribe financing by 0.5% of GDP.

Key Policy Recommendations

• Fiscal consolidation should be the main driver of adjustment, rather than monetary tightening.
• The exchange rate should be allowed to adjust more freely to market pressures.
• Petrocaribe flows should be monitored closely to avoid financing shortfalls.
• Structural reforms should be accelerated, particularly in tax administration, debt management, and public investment.
• Mitigation measures should be implemented to protect vulnerable populations during price adjustments.
• Systematic stress testing and IMF technical assistance should continue to strengthen financial sector resilience.

Financial Implications

• A total of SDR 1.638 million will be disbursed following the review.
• Total ECF disbursements reached SDR 40.950 million.
• Treasury bill stock is expected to increase by 0.4% of GDP.
• Reserve coverage decreased to below 5 months of imports, but is still considered adequate.

Conclusion

The review highlights mixed progress in fiscal and monetary policy and structural reforms. While macroeconomic stability has been maintained, downside risks remain, particularly related to Petrocaribe financing, political uncertainty, and external vulnerabilities. The authorities intend to request a new ECF arrangement to support continued reforms and sustain growth. The IMF encourages a more sustainable fiscal position, flexible monetary policy, and enhanced structural reforms to mitigate risks and improve long-term economic prospects.