2018年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Niger_Third_Review_Under_the_Extended_Credit_Facility_Arrangement_Request_for_Waiver_of_Nonobservance_of_Performance_Criterion_and_Request_for_Augmentation_of_Access_88页_2mb

IMF Country Report No. 18/372 - Niger Summary

Core Content

This document outlines the IMF's Third Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement for Niger, including a waiver request for nonobservance of the performance criterion on domestic payments arrears clearance and a request for augmentation of access to IMF resources. The report covers economic developments, program performance, policy discussions, and structural reforms implemented by Niger, with a focus on macroeconomic stability, revenue mobilization, expenditure quality, and fiscal sustainability.

Main Points

1. IMF Disbursement and Program Adjustments

• The IMF Executive Board approved the disbursement of SDR14.1 million (about US$19.5 million) on December 10, 2018, bringing total disbursements under the ECF arrangement to SDR56.4 million (about US$78.1 million).
• The ECF arrangement was increased to SDR118.44 million (about US$164.1 million), or 90% of Niger's quota, to address unforeseen financing gaps caused by security issues, uranium sector challenges, and food security needs.

2. Program Performance

• Economic developments in 2018 aligned with program projections, with real GDP growth expected at 5.2% due to strong construction and service sector activity.
• Inflation dropped from 5.4% in April to 3.1% in October, partly due to one-off factors such as tax and administrative price hikes, and the collapse of the main bridge.
• Fiscal consolidation was ahead of schedule, with the basic fiscal deficit at 2.8% of GDP and the overall deficit at 4.4% of GDP for 2018.
• The government committed to eliminating all domestic payment arrears by the end of 2018, though targets were missed due to delays in clearance, prompting a waiver request.

3. Outlook and Risks

• Economic growth is projected to rise to 6.5% in 2019, driven by good harvests, large-scale projects, and private investments.
• Inflation is expected to fall below the 3% WAEMU ceiling in 2019.
• The current account deficit is likely to deteriorate initially but decline to below 14% of GDP in 2023.
• Downside risks include commodity price shocks and regional security issues.

Key Policies and Reforms

A. Preserving Macroeconomic Stability

• Fiscal consolidation has strengthened macroeconomic stability, with the overall deficit projected to decline from 4.5% of GDP in 2019 to 3% in 2020.
• Debt management is a priority, with concessional loans preferred and new legislation on public-private partnerships (PPPs) implemented.
• The Inter-Ministerial Committee on Public Debt and Budgetary Support is fully functional, and public debt management is being centralized in the Treasury.

B. Broadening the Revenue Base

• Revenue measures in 2019 include:
  • Reinstating the tax on international phone calls.
  • Substituting banking tax for VAT in line with WAEMU requirements.
  • Integrating telecom regulator receipts into the budget.
  • Simplifying taxation for small businesses.
  • Marking petroleum products to combat smuggling.
  • Intensifying tax arrears collection.
• The total revenue measures for 2019 are expected to generate 1.01% of GDP.

C. Improving Spending Quality

• The government is focusing on more efficient and targeted spending.
• Program budgeting and public investment coordination are being improved.
• Social spending is prioritized, particularly in education and health, and cash transfers and school lunch programs are included.
• A system to monitor social expenditure is being introduced from mid-2019.

D. Structural Reforms

• Private sector development is a key objective, with efforts to improve the Doing Business ranking and increase foreign direct investment (FDI).
• Public administration reforms are ongoing, including the implementation of the Treasury Single Account (TSA) and digital systems.
• State-owned enterprises (SOEs) and public entities are being reformed, with audits and governance improvements planned.
• Financial inclusion is a priority, with plans to launch a new strategy and organize a round table for its implementation.

Key Figures and Tables

1. Recent Economic Developments and Outlook (2013-23)

• Real GDP growth is expected to average 7% over the next five years.
• Inflation is projected to fall below 3% in 2019.

2. Fiscal Developments (2013-18)

• The basic fiscal deficit for 2018 was 2.8% of GDP.
• The overall fiscal deficit for 2018 was 4.4% of GDP.

3. Tax Performance (2014-18)

• Revenue mobilization is a key focus, with tax reforms and administrative improvements.

4. Indicators of Financial Inclusion (2010-17)

• Financial inclusion remains low, with private credit and deposits at 16.1% and 14.4% of GDP, respectively.

Additional Documents

• Letter of Intent and Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies are included.
• Technical Memorandum of Understanding outlines the terms and conditions of the IMF arrangement.

Conclusion

Niger is working to strengthen macroeconomic stability and foster sustainable growth through fiscal consolidation, revenue mobilization, and structural reforms. The IMF's support is crucial in addressing unforeseen financing gaps, and the government's commitment to eliminating domestic payment arrears and improving public spending efficiency is highlighted. Challenges such as commodity price shocks and regional security issues remain, but ongoing reforms and investment projects are expected to boost economic prospects.