20231223-五矿期货-锰硅周报_价格继续维持震荡盘整_等待向上驱动强化_56页_4mb

Manganese Silicide Weekly Analysis Summary

Key Points for Manganese Silicide

• Base Price: Current spot price in Tianjin is 6400 CNY/ton (up +110 month-over-month), with a basis of -14 CNY/ton, indicating a relatively tight market and low historical deviation.
• Profit: Production profit in Inner Mongolia decreased to 38 CNY/ton (up +113 from cost), while Ningxia and Guangxi showed losses of -370 CNY/ton and -580 CNY/ton, respectively, reflecting deteriorating profitability.
• Supply and Production: Weekly production hit 2012,000 tons, up +26,000 tons from previous week, still near seasonal highs, putting upward pressure on prices.
• Demand and Inventory: Steel production increased to 2615,000 tons, but iron water output held steady at 22,564 tons per day, with inventory at 3,205,000 tons down -116,000 tons, suggesting slight easing in excess supply.
• Strategy: Price is likely to consolidate in the near term; while downward space is limited due to cost support, upward potential is constrained by seasonal demand weakness and high inventory, so await stronger drivers for a potential bounce.

Key Points for Ferrosilicon Weekly Analysis

• Base Price: Current spot price in Tianjin is 6920 CNY/ton (down -30 month-over-month), with a basis of +54 CNY/ton, indicating a non-tight market.
• Profit: Profitability is mixed–Inner Mongolia saw marginal improvement to 312 CNY/ton, but Ningxia and Qinghai maintained losses of -174 CNY/ton and -112 CNY/ton, unchanged from the month, with expectations of limited gains.
• Supply and Production: Weekly output fell slightly to 1,138,000 tons (-11,000 tons month-over-month), still at high levels, maintaining supply pressure.
• Demand and Inventory: Iron water output dropped slightly (-22 tons per day), and non-steel demand like magnesium is weak, with inventory standing at 1,569,000 tons (-77,000 tons month-over-month).
• Strategy: The market is in a consolidation phase; while downward limits are set by costs, upward drivers are absent, so traders should wait for supply-side changes for any rebound.

Note: For both commodities, market conditions reflect seasonal slowdowns and high inventories, with prices potentially remaining range-bound until clearer catalysts emerge.