20181113-USDA-Rice_Outlook_26页_1mb

报告摘要

Rice Outlook Summary (RCS-18K, November 13, 2018)

Core Content Overview

This report provides an outlook for U.S. and global rice markets for the 2018/19 marketing year. It includes updates on production, imports, exports, ending stocks, and prices, highlighting changes in supply and demand dynamics across different regions and rice classes.

Key Domestic Highlights

U.S. 2018/19 Production Forecast

Total production is forecast at 218.3 million cwt, a 0.5 million cwt decrease from the previous forecast due to a slightly lower yield.
California yield was lowered by 100 pounds per acre to 8,500 pounds, but still up 1% from the previous year.
U.S. harvested area remains at 2.9 million acres, up 22% from a year earlier.
Total production increase is 22.5% from a year earlier, driven by expanded area.
Long-grain production is forecast at 158.6 million cwt, up 24% from a year earlier.
Medium- and short-grain production is forecast at 59.7 million cwt, up 18% from a year earlier.

U.S. 2018/19 Import Forecast

Total imports are raised to a record 28.0 million cwt, up 1.0 million cwt from the previous forecast.
Medium- and short-grain imports increased by 1.0 million cwt, reaching 4.5 million cwt, which is 27% above a year earlier.
The increase is mainly due to a 21,000-ton shipment from China to Puerto Rico in September.
Long-grain imports remain at a record 23.5 million cwt, with Thailand, India, and Pakistan as the main suppliers.
Total carryin for all rice is estimated at 29.4 million cwt, down 36% from a year earlier.

U.S. 2018/19 Export Forecast

Total exports are forecast at 96.0 million cwt, down 2.0 million cwt from the previous forecast.
Long-grain exports account for all the downward revision, projected at 67.0 million cwt, up 6% from a year earlier.
Medium- and short-grain exports are forecast at 29.0 million cwt, up 22% from the 2017/18 low.
Exports to Iraq increased in October, with 90,000 tons expected to ship, all long-grain milled rice.
Venezuela has significantly reduced rice imports, contributing to the slower shipment pace.
Latin America and Northeast Asia are expected to import more U.S. milled rice.

U.S. Ending Stocks

Total ending stocks are projected at 46.7 million cwt, up 2.5 million cwt from the previous forecast and 59% above a year earlier.
Stocks-to-use ratio is at 20.4%, well above the 13.2% in 2017/18.
Long-grain ending stocks are forecast at 32.4 million cwt, up 1.6 million cwt, and the stocks-to-use ratio is at 19.1%.
Medium- and short-grain ending stocks are forecast at 12.8 million cwt, up 0.9 million cwt, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 21.8%.

U.S. Rice Prices

2018/19 long-grain SAFP is projected at $10.20-$11.20 per cwt, down 10 cents from the previous forecast.
Southern medium- and short-grain SAFP is forecast at $11.60-$12.60 per cwt, up $1.00 on both ends.
California medium- and short-grain SAFP is projected at $17.30-$18.30 per cwt, up $1.50 on both ends.
U.S. medium- and short-grain SAFP is forecast at $15.60-$16.60 per cwt, up $1.40 on both ends.
All-rice SAFP is projected at $11.50-$12.50 per cwt, up 30 cents on both ends.
September cash prices declined for both rice classes and all regions due to larger harvests and reduced sales.

Key International Highlights

Global Production Forecast

Global production for 2018/19 is forecast at 490.7 million tons, up 3.6 million tons from the previous forecast.
The largest upward revision is for China, which increased its production forecast by 2.8 million tons to 143.6 million tons.
Production increases are also seen in Bangladesh, Cambodia, Thailand, and the United States.
Production declines are forecast for Argentina, Australia, Brazil, and others.

Global Consumption Forecast

Global consumption is projected at a record 488.4 million tons, up 1% from a year earlier.
Consumption increases are forecast for China, Indonesia, South Korea, and Venezuela.
Consumption decreases are seen in Japan and South Korea, due to long-term diet diversification.
Consumption and residual use are projected to increase in Angola, Benin, Burkina-Faso, Cambodia, and others.

Global Ending Stocks

Global ending stocks are projected to increase 1.4% to a record 163.0 million tons, up 17.8 million tons from the previous forecast.
The substantial increase is largely due to China's ending stocks, which are forecast at 113.0 million tons, up 17.0 million tons.
China's stocks-to-use ratio is projected at a record 79%, while the global ratio is at 33.3%, unchanged from a year earlier.

Key Market Trends

China is the dominant player in global rice markets, with significant revisions in production and ending stocks.
Puerto Rico has become a major importer of medium- and short-grain rice from China, due to lower prices and U.S. shipping costs.
India and Pakistan have seen export forecasts lowered for 2019, while China, Thailand, and the U.S. are expected to lead in export growth.
U.S. market share in Latin America is expected to recover, with Mexico, Central America, and Venezuela as key markets.
Brazil is emerging as a significant buyer of U.S. rough rice, shifting from milled to rough.
Global trade for 2019 is forecast at a record 49.2 million tons, up 1% from 2018.

Summary of Changes

Production in the U.S. is up 22.5% from a year earlier, but down 0.5 million cwt from the previous forecast.
Imports are up 1.0 million cwt to a record 28.0 million cwt, driven by China's shipments to Puerto Rico.
Exports are down 2.0 million cwt, but up 10% from a year earlier.
Ending stocks are up 59% for the U.S., with long-grain stocks at a record 32.4 million cwt.
Global production is up 3.6 million tons, with China being the main contributor.
Global consumption is up 1%, with China, Indonesia, South Korea, and Venezuela showing increases.
Global ending stocks are projected to increase 1.4%, with China holding 70% of global stocks.