20170714-USDA-USDA_Rice_Outlook_2017.07.14_27页_911kb

Summary of the Rice Outlook Report (RCS-17G, July 14, 2017)

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the U.S. and global rice market outlook for the 2017/18 season, including production, supply, export, and price forecasts, as well as updates on crop progress and conditions.

U.S. 2017/18 Rice Outlook

• Production Forecast: Reduced by 5% to 191.3 million cwt due to a smaller harvested area of 2.48 million acres, which is 20% below the previous year.
• Harvested Area: Declined across most southern states, with Arkansas accounting for two-thirds of the U.S. reduction (down 27% from a year earlier).
• Crop Progress: Slightly behind a year earlier, with most states showing improvement since May. California lagged significantly, with only 3% of its crop headed by July 9.
• Crop Conditions: Improved in most states, with 72% of the U.S. crop rated in good or excellent condition for the week ending July 9, up from 65% in mid-May.
• Total Supplies: Projected at 261.6 million cwt, down 11% from the previous forecast and 32.5 million cwt below a year earlier.
• Ending Stocks: Reduced to 32.6 million cwt, down 4% from the previous forecast and 29% below a year earlier.
• Exports: Forecast at 109.0 million cwt, down 3.0 million cwt from the previous forecast and 6% below the year-earlier level. Long-grain exports remain the largest category.
• Domestic Use: Forecast at 120.0 million cwt, down 5 million cwt from the previous forecast and 9% below the year-earlier level.
• Prices: Season-average prices for both 2016/17 and 2017/18 are projected to rise, with the 2017/18 all-rice SAFP at $11.80-$12.80 per cwt, up 80 cents from the previous forecast.

International Outlook

• Global Production: Forecast at 483.7 million tons (milled basis), up 2.6 million tons from the previous forecast, but slightly below the 2016/17 record.
• Key Upward Revisions:
  • India: Production forecast increased by 2.0 million tons to 108.0 million tons, driven by higher yields and expanded area.
  • Thailand: Production forecast raised by 0.9 million tons to 20.4 million tons, reflecting full recovery from drought.
  • Vietnam: Production forecast increased by 350,000 tons to a record 28.45 million tons, due to higher yields and slightly more area.
• Key Downward Revisions:
  • United States: Production forecast reduced by 0.3 million tons to 6.07 million tons due to smaller harvested area.
  • Madagascar: Production forecast lowered by 0.2 million tons to 2.05 million tons due to low yields from dry weather and a cyclone.
  • Peru: Production forecast reduced by 95,000 tons to 2.11 million tons due to smaller area and lower yields.
  • Mexico, Bolivia, Guyana: Also saw small reductions in production forecasts.
• Global Consumption: Projected at 479.6 million tons, nearly unchanged from last month but 1.5 million tons below the year-earlier record. Major declines in consumption are expected in Thailand, the U.S., China, and Indonesia.
• Global Ending Stocks: Forecast at 122.5 million tons, up 2.0 million tons from the previous forecast and the largest since 2001/02.
• Exports: Global export forecast raised to 43.4 million tons, with India being the largest exporter.

Key Information

• Rice Chart Gallery Update: Scheduled for July 18, 2017.
• Next Release: Expected on August 14, 2017.
• Price Trends: Thailand's price quotes have declined since mid-June, while U.S. prices and Vietnam's quotes have risen.
• Import Sources: Thailand is the largest supplier of rice to the U.S., with India and Pakistan following, primarily exporting basmati rice.
• Competitiveness: The U.S. faces strong competition from Asian exporters in the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa for long-grain rice, and from Egypt and Australia in the medium- and short-grain market.
• Crop Area Shifts: Farmers in the U.S. have reduced planted area due to adverse weather, with California experiencing the largest drop due to flooding.
• Stocks by State: Arkansas had the highest rice stocks on June 1, 2017, at 41.8 million cwt, while California reported lower stocks.

Main Points

• U.S. production and exports are projected to decline due to smaller harvests and higher prices.
• Global production increased due to favorable conditions in major exporters like India, Thailand, and Vietnam.
• Crop conditions have improved in most U.S. states since mid-May, with Arkansas and Missouri showing significant recovery.
• Season-average farm prices are expected to rise for both 2016/17 and 2017/18, with the U.S. all-rice price forecast at $11.80-$12.80 per cwt.
• Global consumption is projected to decrease slightly, with major reductions in Thailand, the U.S., China, and Indonesia.
• Ending stocks globally are at a near-record high, indicating a surplus in international markets.