20180117-USDA-USDA_Rice_Outlook_2018.01.17_23页_1mb

Rice Outlook Summary (2017/18)

Core Content

This document provides a comprehensive overview of the U.S. and global rice market outlook for the 2017/18 marketing year, including production, supply, use, and price forecasts. It also includes insights into international trade dynamics and market trends.

U.S. Domestic Outlook

Production Forecast

• Total U.S. Rice Production: Lowered to 178.2 million cwt, a 20% decline from the previous year.
• Harvested Area: Decreased by 17,000 acres to 2.37 million, the smallest since 1987/88.
• Yield: Increased slightly, with an average of 7,507 pounds per acre, still below the 2013/14 record.
• State-Specific Changes:
  • Arkansas: Largest area decline (down 27%), contributing to nearly half of the national production drop.
  • Mississippi: Area dropped 41% to 114,000 acres, the smallest since 1977/78.
  • Louisiana: Area declined 8% to 395,000 acres.
  • Texas: Area dropped 16% to 158,000 acres.
  • California: Area declined 17% to 443,000 acres, affected by drought and flooding.
• By Rice Class:
  • Long-grain: Production estimated at 127.9 million cwt, down 23% from the previous year.
  • Medium- and Short-grain: Combined production at 50.4 million cwt, down 1.9 million cwt from the previous estimate.

Supplies and Stocks

• Total U.S. Rice Supplies: Projected at 249.2 million cwt, 15% below the previous year.
• Beginning Stocks: At 46.0 million cwt, down 1% from the previous year.
• Long-grain Beginning Stocks: Up 37% to 31.0 million cwt, the highest since 2011/12.
• Medium- and Short-grain Beginning Stocks: Down 45% to 11.5 million cwt, the lowest since 2009/10.
• December 1 Stocks: Estimated at 129.2 million cwt, 23% below the previous year, indicating strong domestic and residual use.

Use and Exports

• Total Use: Forecast at 220.0 million cwt, up 2.0 million cwt from the previous forecast but 11% below the previous year.
• Domestic and Residual Use: Raised to 120.0 million cwt, up 5.0 million cwt from the previous forecast.
• Exports: Lowered to 100.0 million cwt, 3.0 million cwt below the previous forecast and 14% below the previous year.
• Long-grain Exports: Lowered 3.0 million cwt to 71.0 million cwt.
• Milled Rice Exports: Projected at 66.0 million cwt, down 1.0 million cwt from the previous forecast.
• Rough-rice Exports: Down 2.0 million cwt to 34.0 million cwt, the smallest since 2011/12.

Prices

• Season-Average Farm Price (SAFP):
  • Long-grain: Lowered to $11.30 to $12.30 per cwt, still up from $9.64 per cwt a year earlier.
  • Medium- and Short-grain: Raised to $14.50 to $15.50 per cwt, up from $12.90 per cwt a year earlier.
  • California Medium- and Short-grain: Raised to $15.50 to $16.50 per cwt, up from $13.70 per cwt a year earlier.
• Cash Prices (Week Ending Jan 9):
  • U.S. Long-grain Milled Rice: $585 per ton, up $20 from early December.
  • U.S. Long-grain Rough-rice: $295 per ton, down $20 from early December.
  • California Medium-grain Milled Rice: $858 per ton, up $10 from the previous week.
  • California Medium-grain Export Price: $915 per ton, up $25 from the previous week.
  • Thailand's Prices: Little change, with 100%-grade B milled white rice at $411 per ton and premium jasmine rice at $984 per ton.

Global Outlook

Production Forecast

• Global Production: Raised to 484.7 million tons, 0.5% below the year-earlier record.
• Upward Revisions:
  • Philippines: +770,000 tons to 11.97 million tons.
  • Pakistan: +300,000 tons to 7.2 million tons.
  • Ecuador: +193,000 tons to 882,000 tons.
  • Russia: +15,000 tons to 640,000 tons.
• Downward Revisions:
  • Costa Rica: -32,000 tons to 123,000 tons.
  • U.S.: -5,000 tons to 5.66 million tons.

Consumption and Stocks

• Global Consumption: Projected at a record 481.7 million tons, 1.0 million tons above the previous forecast.
• Global Ending Stocks: Projected at 141.1 million tons, up 3.0 million tons from the previous year and the highest since 2000/01.
• Major Stock Contributors: Bangladesh and the Philippines.

Trade Forecast

• Global Trade: Projected at 46.2 million tons, up 0.7 million tons from the previous forecast but 0.6 million tons below the previous year.
• Top Exporters: India and Thailand.
• Top Importers: China and Nigeria, followed by the EU and Bangladesh.
• U.S. Exports: Lowered to 3.3 million tons, due to tighter supplies and export competition.

Key Market Trends

• Export Dynamics: U.S. exports to Western Hemisphere markets were slower than expected, impacting the forecast.
• Weather Impact: Severe weather conditions, including droughts, floods, and typhoons, affected production and yields in several states and countries.
• Price Volatility: U.S. milled rice prices increased, while Thailand's prices remained stable.

Additional Information

• Rice Chart Gallery: Updated on Jan 19, 2018.
• Next Release: Feb 12, 2018.
• Contact: Nathan Childs and Sharon Raszap Skorbiansky for further details.
• Subscription: Available for ERS e-mail notifications.
• Data Sources:
  • Rice Monthly Tables
  • Rice Chart Gallery
  • Related websites for detailed reports and analyses.