20201014-USDA-USDA_Rice_Outlook_2020.10.14_13页_266kb

Rice Outlook Summary

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the U.S. and global rice market conditions for the 2020/21 marketing year. It includes updates on production, imports, exports, domestic use, and price forecasts, as well as insights into international rice production and trade trends.

Main Points

U.S. Domestic Outlook

• Production Forecast: U.S. rice production for 2020/21 is raised to 226.3 million cwt, an increase of 1.3 million cwt or 23% from the previous year.
• Yield and Area: The yield forecast was increased by 38 pounds per acre to 7,567 pounds per acre, with a slight increase in harvested area to 2.991 million acres.
• Regional Performance:
  • Arkansas: Harvested area increased by 28%, contributing significantly to the overall production rise.
  • Louisiana: Production is forecast at 32.2 million cwt, up 22%, due to both increased area and yield.
  • Mississippi: Production is forecast at 12.6 million cwt, up 51.5%, mainly due to expanded area.
  • Texas: Despite damage from Hurricane Laura and Tropical Storm Hanna, production is forecast at 11.6 million cwt, up 5% due to increased area.
  • California: Production is forecast at 44.9 million cwt, up 7%, driven by a 3% increase in area and a 4% increase in yield.
• Harvest Progress: As of October 4, 71% of the U.S. crop was harvested, 3 percentage points behind the previous year and 7 percentage points below the 5-year average.
• Exports: U.S. rice exports are forecast at 99.0 million cwt, up 5% from the previous year, with long-grain exports rising 10%.
• Import Forecast: U.S. rice imports are raised to 37.3 million cwt, up 0.5 million cwt from the previous forecast.
• Domestic and Residual Use: Total domestic and residual use is projected at a record 145.5 million cwt, up 1% from the previous year.
• Ending Stocks: Ending stocks are forecast at 47.7 million cwt, up 65% from the previous year.
• Farm Prices: The season-average farm price (SAFP) for long-grain rice is raised to $11.50 per cwt, while southern medium- and short-grain rice prices are raised to $11.60 per cwt.

International Outlook

• Global Production: Forecast at a record 501.5 million tons (milled basis), up 1.9 million tons from the previous forecast and over 1% from the previous year.
• Major Producers: Production forecasts were raised for India, Pakistan, the Philippines, and the United States.
• Consumption and Residual Use: Forecast at a record 499.4 million tons, up 3.0 million tons from the previous forecast.
• Ending Stocks: Global ending stocks are projected at 179.2 million tons, down 5.7 million tons from the previous forecast but still up 1% from the previous year.
• Trade Forecast: Global rice trade in 2021 is projected at 44.2 million tons, down 0.2 million tons from the previous forecast but up 3% from the previous year.
• Country-Specific Updates:
  • India: Production forecast increased by 1.6 million tons, driven by a higher yield and expanded area.
  • Pakistan: Production increased due to higher yield, despite heavy flooding in Sindh province.
  • Brazil: Production increased slightly, with higher yield and tight domestic supplies expected to boost plantings.
  • Japan: Production forecast reduced due to lower harvested area, continuing a long-term decline.
  • China: Expected to be the largest supplier of medium- and short-grain rice to the U.S.
  • Vietnam: Production is forecast at a record level due to increased yields and area.

Key Information

• U.S. Import Sources: Thailand, India, and Brazil are the primary sources for long-grain imports, with Thailand and India providing premium varieties like jasmine and basmati.
• U.S. Export Markets: Latin America is expected to be the top market for U.S. rice in 2020/21, with Brazil becoming the third-largest supplier.
• Price Trends: California medium- and short-grain rice prices have dropped due to early harvest, while U.S. long-grain prices remain stable.
• Supply and Demand Balance: The stocks-to-use ratio for U.S. rice is forecast at 19.5%, up from 12.0% in the previous year.
• Global Trends: Global rice stocks are projected to reach a record high, with India and the U.S. being the main contributors to the increase.

Summary Table

Conclusion

The 2020/21 U.S. rice market is characterized by increased production, stable long-grain prices, and record global rice production and consumption. Despite challenges like weather disruptions and harvest delays, the U.S. remains a key player in the global rice trade, with Latin America as the primary export market. The stocks-to-use ratio is expected to improve, reflecting a more balanced supply and demand outlook.