20210514-USDA-USDA_Rice_Outlook_2021.05.14_17页_406kb

Rice Outlook Summary

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the U.S. and global rice market outlook for the 2021/22 season, including production, supply, use, and price projections. It also includes updates on the 2020/21 season and international production and consumption trends.

Main Views

U.S. Domestic Outlook

• Production: U.S. rice production for 2021/22 is projected at 203.6 million cwt, a 11% decrease from the previous year, due to smaller plantings.
• Carryin: Carryin is forecast at 42.9 million cwt, a 49% increase from the previous year.
• Imports: Imports are expected to reach a record 38.5 million cwt, an 8% increase from the previous year.
• Total Supply: Total supply is projected at 285.0 million cwt, a 2% decrease from the previous year.
• Exports: Exports are expected to drop 3% to 88.0 million cwt, the lowest since 2017/18, due to smaller supplies and less competitive prices.
• Domestic and Residual Use: Combined domestic and residual use is projected at 156.0 million cwt, a 1% decline from the previous year.
• Ending Stocks: Ending stocks are forecast at 41.0 million cwt, a 4% decrease from the previous year.
• Farm Prices: Season-average farm prices (SAFP) are projected to rise for both long-grain and medium- and short-grain rice, with long-grain SAFP at $12.80 per cwt and medium- and short-grain SAFP at $13.20 per cwt.

U.S. 2021/22 Supply and Use Projections

• Long-grain Supplies: Projected at 214.1 million cwt, down 1% from the previous year.
• Medium- and Short-grain Supplies: Projected at 69.9 million cwt, down 6% from the previous year, the smallest since 2017/18.
• Ending Stocks by Class: Long-grain ending stocks are projected at 31.1 million cwt, up 4% from the previous year. Medium- and short-grain ending stocks are projected at 7.9 million cwt, down 29% from the previous year.
• Stocks-to-Use Ratio: The overall all-rice stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 16.8%, down from 17.3% in the previous year. Long-grain ratio is up to 17.6%, while medium- and short-grain ratio is down to 12.7%.

U.S. 2020/21 Supply and Use Projections

• Imports: Remain at 35.7 million cwt, a 4% decline from the previous year.
• Exports: Remain at 91.0 million cwt, a 3% decline from the previous year.
• Long-grain Imports: Forecast at 29.0 million cwt, down 3% from the previous year.
• Medium- and Short-grain Imports: Forecast at 6.7 million cwt, down 11% from the previous year.
• Long-grain Exports: Forecast at 63.0 million cwt, down 2.5% from the previous year.
• Combined Medium- and Short-grain Exports: Forecast at 28.0 million cwt, down 5% from the previous year.

Key Information

Regional Production Trends

• U.S.: Production is projected at 203.6 million cwt, with a significant decline in long-grain due to reduced planting areas in the Delta, and a nearly 10% drop in medium- and short-grain due to reduced irrigation in California.
• Global: Production is forecast to reach a record 505.4 million tons, up 1.9 million tons from the previous year, with Bangladesh, China, South Korea, and Taiwan leading the increase. India and the U.S. are expected to show the largest production declines.

International Outlook

• Global Consumption and Residual Use: Projected to increase to a record 513.3 million tons, up 7.9 million tons from the previous year, with China and India accounting for the majority of the increase.
• Global Ending Stocks: Forecast at 168.0 million tons, down 7.9 million tons from the previous year, with China and India leading the decline.
• Trade Trends: Global rice trade is expected to expand by 0.1 million tons to 46.4 million tons in 2022, with Thailand and India as major exporters. Thailand is expected to maintain its dominance in long-grain exports, while India's exports may decline due to higher domestic demand.

Price Trends

• U.S. Rice Prices: Rising due to tighter supplies, with long-grain prices at $12.80 per cwt and medium- and short-grain prices at $13.20 per cwt.
• International Prices: Thailand and Vietnam's rice prices remain stable, while U.S. milled rice prices are expected to drop due to competition from Asian and South American suppliers.

Summary Table

Conclusion

The 2021/22 U.S. rice market is characterized by a smaller production crop, increased carryin and imports, and a decline in exports. Despite this, prices are expected to rise due to tighter supplies. Globally, production is set to reach a record high, with consumption and residual use also increasing, leading to a decline in ending stocks. Thailand and India remain key players in international rice trade, with the U.S. facing increased competition from South American and Asian suppliers.