20210211-USDA-Rice_Outlook_India_s_2021_Rice_Export_Forecast_Raised_to_a_Record_15.0_Million_Tons_13页_366kb

Rice Outlook Summary

Core Content

The Rice Outlook report from the USDA Economic Research Service provides an analysis of the U.S. and global rice markets for the 2020/21 market year. It includes updates on production, supply, use, and trade forecasts, along with price trends and regional developments.

Main Points

U.S. Domestic Outlook

• Total supplies for 2020/21 are forecast at 292.4 million cwt, the highest since 2016/17, up over 9% from the previous year.
• Long-grain supplies are the highest since 2010/11 at 217.3 million cwt, up 16%.
• Medium- and short-grain supplies are down 5% to 74.1 million cwt.
• Production increased by 23%, mainly due to a 21% expansion in harvested area.
• Imports are forecast at 36.2 million cwt, down 3% from the previous year.
• Exports are forecast at 93.0 million cwt, down 1.0 million cwt from the previous forecast, primarily due to lower sales to traditional buyers like Mexico and Haiti.
• Ending stocks are raised to 39.4 million cwt, up 38% from the previous year.
• Season-average farm prices (SAFP) for long-grain and southern medium- and short-grain rice are raised, influenced by higher-than-expected prices in December.
• California's medium- and short-grain SAFP is at $19.00 per cwt, $2.60 below the revised 2019/20 SAFP of $21.60.
• U.S. medium- and short-grain SAFP is at $16.90 per cwt, $1.30 below the revised 2019/20 SAFP of $18.20.
• All-rice SAFP is at $13.40 per cwt, 20 cents above the previous forecast but 20 cents below the revised 2019/20 SAFP.

Global Outlook

• World rice production for 2020/21 is forecast at 504.0 million tons, a record high and up 0.85 million tons from the previous forecast.
• Production increases are mainly in Indonesia, the Philippines, and Sri Lanka, while Argentina, Guyana, and Nigeria saw reductions.
• Global consumption and residual use are forecast at 504.2 million tons, a record and up 2.2 million tons from the previous forecast.
• China accounts for the largest increase in consumption, up 1.5 million tons, driven by higher industrial and feed use.
• Global ending stocks are forecast at 178.1 million tons, down 1.4 million tons from the previous forecast and the first annual decline in 14 years.
• India and China are the main contributors to the reduction in global ending stocks due to increased domestic use and exports.
• Global rice trade is projected at 46.1 million tons, up 0.5 million tons from the previous forecast and 3% higher than a year earlier.
• Export forecasts for Burma, India, and Vietnam are raised, while Brazil, China, and Thailand see reductions.
• Import forecasts for Bangladesh, China, and Nigeria are raised, while Philippines and Sri Lanka are lowered.
• Thailand increased its export price quotes by 6%, while India's rose 5%, remaining the most competitive among Asian exporters.
• U.S. prices for both long-grain and medium- and short-grain rice remain unchanged despite a large U.S. crop.

Key Information

Production

• U.S. all-rice production is at 227.6 million cwt, up 23% from the previous year.
• Long-grain production is up 36%, driven by a 33% increase in harvested area.
• Medium- and short-grain production is down 5%, with the South experiencing a 29% reduction in harvested area.
• Global production increases are attributed to Indonesia, the Philippines, and Sri Lanka, with Nigeria seeing a 6.3% decline.

Trade

• India is projected to export 15.0 million tons of rice in 2021, a record.
• Thailand’s export forecast is 6.5 million tons, down 0.5 million tons from the previous forecast.
• U.S. exports are expected to remain focused on long-grain and medium- and short-grain varieties, with long-grain being the largest category.
• Major importers in 2021 include China, Bangladesh, and Nigeria, while Australia, the Philippines, and China are expected to see the largest drops in imports.

Prices

• Thailand’s export prices for white rice increased by $30 per ton, and for parboiled rice by $29 per ton.
• Jasmine rice (premium aromatic) from Thailand remains at $830 per ton.
• India's export prices rose 5%, but it still offers the most competitive prices.
• U.S. prices for long-grain and medium- and short-grain rice remain unchanged.

Summary Table

Conclusion

The 2020/21 rice outlook indicates stronger production and higher global consumption, leading to record global production and consumption. The U.S. domestic market shows a record supply and ending stocks, with export reductions primarily due to lower demand from traditional buyers. India emerges as the largest exporter, while Thailand and Vietnam also see increased exports. Price trends are mixed, with Thailand and India showing price increases, while U.S. prices remain unchanged. The global stocks-to-use ratio is 35.3%, slightly lower than the previous year but still below the 2000/01 record.