20170512-USDA-USDA_Rice_Outlook_2017.05.12_23页_705kb

Rice Outlook Summary (RCS-17E, May 12, 2017)

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the U.S. and global rice production, use, trade, and price outlook for the 2017/18 marketing year. It is approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board and includes updates on planting progress, yield projections, and market trends.

U.S. Domestic Outlook

• 2017/18 U.S. Rice Production: Projected at 201.0 million cwt, a 10% decline from the previous year due to a 17% reduction in planted area.
• Yield: A record 7,716 pounds per acre, up 7% from the prior year.
• Total U.S. Rice Supplies: Forecast at 273.1 million cwt, 7% less than 2016/17.
• Beginning Stocks: Increased to 48.1 million cwt, up 3.5% from the previous year.
• Imports: Projected at 24.0 million cwt, slightly up from 2016/17 but below the 2014/15 record.
• Total Use: Projected at 235.0 million cwt, 11 million cwt less than the prior year.
• Exports: Forecast at 110.0 million cwt, down 4 million cwt from the previous year.
  • Long-grain exports: Down 3 million cwt, due to tighter supplies and higher prices.
  • Medium- and short-grain exports: Down 1 million cwt, with most sales going to Northeast Asia.
• Ending Stocks: Projected at 38.1 million cwt, 21% lower than the prior year.
• Season-Average Farm Prices (SAFP):
  • Long-grain: $10.20-$11.20 per cwt, up from $9.50-$9.90 in 2016/17.
  • California medium- and short-grain: $13.10-$14.10, up from $13.10-$13.70.
  • Southern medium- and short-grain: $10.50-$11.50, up from $9.80-$10.20.
  • All-rice: $10.70-$11.70, up from $10.20-$10.60.

Global Outlook

• Global Rice Production (milled basis): Projected at 481.3 million tons, fractionally below the 2016/17 record but 2% higher than 2015/16.
• Harvested Area: Increased to 161.8 million hectares, the highest on record.
• Average Yield: Slightly lower at 4.44 tons per hectare, down from the previous year's record.
• Global Trade (2018): Projected at 42.3 million tons, up more than 2% from the prior year but below the 2014 record.
• Major Exporters: India, Thailand, Vietnam, Pakistan, and the U.S. are expected to lead.
• Major Importers: China, Nigeria, the EU, the Philippines, Cote d'Ivoire, and Saudi Arabia are projected to be the largest.
• Global Consumption: Projected at a record 480.1 million tons, up 1.4 million tons from 2016/17.
• Global Ending Stocks: Projected at 119.8 million tons, the highest since 2001/02, with China accounting for most of the increase.

Regional Highlights

• East Asia:
  • China: Projected at 145.0 million tons, up slightly.
  • Japan: Down 2% to 7.6 million tons.
  • South Korea: Down 7% to 3.9 million tons, lowest since 1968/69.
• South Asia:
  • India: Projected at 106.0 million tons, down slightly.
  • Pakistan: Up 100,000 tons to 6.9 million tons.
  • Bangladesh: Record 34.7 million tons, up 0.1 million tons.
  • Sri Lanka: Record 3.3 million tons, up 40% from the previous year.
• Southeast Asia:
  • Thailand: Projected at 19.5 million tons, up 5%.
  • Vietnam: Up 1% to 28.1 million tons.
  • Burma: Down 1% to 12.3 million tons.
• South America:
  • Colombia: Up 7% to 1.77 million tons.
  • Paraguay: Record 643,000 tons, up 28%.
  • Guyana: Record 690,000 tons, up 23%.
• Caribbean:
  • Mexico: Up 5% to 199,000 tons, largest since 2007/08.
  • Cuba and Haiti: Projected declines due to drought and flooding.
• Africa:
  • Sub-Saharan Africa: Near-record 15.2 million tons, with Nigeria as the largest producer.
  • Madagascar: Down 8% to 2.24 million tons due to drought and flooding.
  • Tanzania: Unchanged at 1.14 million tons, nearly doubled over the past decade.
• Egypt and Australia: Both exporters of medium- and short-grain rice, with Egypt down 17% in production and Australia at 630,000 tons, nearly unchanged from the prior year.
• EU: Projected to produce 2.1 million tons, with Italy and Spain as the main producers.

Key Market Trends

• U.S. Exports: Projected to decline in 2018 due to tighter supplies and higher prices.
• Thailand and Vietnam: Price increases noted for high-quality rice, with Thailand's prices rising sharply.
• Global Trade Revisions:
  • 2017 global trade increased by 0.4 million tons to 41.3 million tons.
  • 2018 global trade forecast at 42.3 million tons, with revisions based on sales and demand trends.
• Price Quotes:
  • Thailand's regular-milled white rice prices increased by 5%.
  • Vietnam's 5% broken kernels prices rose slightly.
  • U.S. long-grain milled rice prices increased, while rough rice prices decreased.

Conclusion

The U.S. rice market is expected to see a 10% production decline due to smaller planted areas, despite record yields. Prices are projected to rise, and both domestic and export use are expected to decrease. Globally, production is slightly down, but trade is expected to increase, with Thailand, Vietnam, and the U.S. leading in exports. China and Nigeria remain the largest importers. Price increases are noted in key markets, reflecting strong demand and limited supply.