20210816-USDA-USDA_Rice_Outlook_2021.08.16_15页

Rice Outlook Summary

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the U.S. and global rice market outlook for the 2021/22 crop year, including production, supply, use, and price forecasts. It highlights the impact of weather conditions, shifts in crop types, and trade dynamics on U.S. and international rice markets.

Main Points

U.S. Domestic Outlook

• Production Forecast: The U.S. 2021/22 rice production was reduced by 1% to 197.4 million cwt, a 13% decrease from the previous year.
• Yield Forecast: The all-rice yield for 2021/22 is 7,544 pounds per acre, 76 pounds below the previous forecast and 1% lower than the previous year.
• Harvested Area: The total harvested area is forecast at 2.616 million acres, down 12% from the previous year.
• Regional Yields:
  • Texas: 7,000 pounds per acre, 14% below previous year.
  • Arkansas: 7,500 pounds per acre, unchanged from previous year.
  • Mississippi: 7,350 pounds per acre, down 1% from previous year.
  • Missouri: 7,700 pounds per acre, up 6% from previous year.
  • California: 8,700 pounds per acre, down 20 pounds from previous year.
• Total Supply: U.S. total rice supply for 2021/22 is forecast at 279.3 million cwt, down 5 million cwt from previous forecast.
• Imports: U.S. imports for 2021/22 are forecast at 38.0 million cwt, the highest on record.
• Exports: U.S. exports for 2021/22 are forecast at 91.0 million cwt, up 1 million cwt from previous forecast.
• Domestic and Residual Use: Forecast at 151.0 million cwt, down 2 million cwt from previous forecast.
• Ending Stocks: Forecast at 37.3 million cwt, down 4 million cwt from previous forecast.
• Price Forecasts:
  • Long-grain SAFP: Increased by 10 cents to $12.90 per cwt.
  • Medium- and short-grain SAFP: California increased to $22.00, South and California increased to $19.30 and $14.50 respectively.

U.S. 2020/21 Outlook

• Imports: Reduced by 1 million cwt to 33.7 million, 10% smaller than previous year.
• Exports: Raised by 1 million cwt to 94.0 million, with long-grain exports unchanged at 65.0 million.
• Ending Stocks: Forecast at 43.9 million cwt, down 2 million cwt from previous forecast.
• SAFP: Long-grain SAFP increased by 10 cents to $12.60, all-rice SAFP increased by 10 cents to $13.90.

Global Outlook

• Total Production: Forecast at a record 507.5 million tons (milled basis), up 1.4 million tons from previous forecast.
• Production Changes:
  • Increased: Bangladesh, Brazil, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Vietnam.
  • Decreased: Cuba, Kazakhstan, Russia, and the U.S.
• Consumption and Residual Use: Forecast at a record 514.3 million tons, up 0.3 million tons from previous forecast.
• Ending Stocks: Forecast at 170.1 million tons, down 3.2 million tons from previous forecast.
• Global Trade: Forecast at 47.7 million tons for 2022, up 0.65 million tons from previous forecast.
• Key Exporters:
  • 2022 Imports: China and India are the main importers for medium- and short-grain rice.
  • 2022 Exports: China, India, and Thailand are the top suppliers to the U.S., including Puerto Rico.
• Price Trends:
  • Asian aromatic prices (Thailand, Vietnam, Pakistan) declined over the past month.
  • India has become the most competitive price source since late 2018.
  • U.S. long-grain prices are now close to South American prices.
  • U.S. medium- and short-grain prices are higher than Asian alternatives due to reduced supply.

Key Information

• Supply and Use Revisions: Both 2020/21 and 2021/22 forecasts were adjusted due to changes in imports, exports, and production.
• Weather Impact: Persistent rainfall in the South delayed planting and harvesting, while severe drought in California reduced rice acreage.
• Market Competition: U.S. rice faces increased competition from South American suppliers, especially in Latin American markets.
• Trade Dynamics: China and India are significant players in both U.S. imports and exports, with China being the largest supplier of medium- and short-grain rice.
• Stock-to-Use Ratio:
  • U.S. long-grain: 15.7% (down from 17.4%).
  • U.S. medium- and short-grain: 12.6% (down from 17.7%).
  • Global: 33.1% (down from 34.9%).

Summary Table

Conclusion

The 2021/22 U.S. rice market shows a decrease in production and supply, with a notable shift in crop types and a reduction in domestic use. Despite this, U.S. imports remain high, driven by strong demand and competitive pricing from Asian suppliers. Global rice production and consumption are both expected to reach record levels, with continued declines in ending stocks. India and China are central to both U.S. import and export dynamics, with U.S. rice prices being affected by global market trends and competition from other regions.