20160114-USDA-Rice_Outlook_24页_991kb

报告摘要

Rice Outlook Summary (2015/16)

Core Content

The Economic Research Service (ERS), in collaboration with the World Agricultural Outlook Board, provides an updated outlook for the 2015/16 U.S. rice market, including production, supply, use, and price forecasts. The report also covers global rice production, trade, and consumption trends, as well as international market developments.

U.S. Rice Outlook

Production Forecast

The 2015/16 U.S. rice crop was raised by 1 million cwt to 192.3 million cwt, a 1% increase from the previous estimate.
Long-grain production increased by 0.7 million cwt to 133.0 million cwt, a 18% decrease from a year earlier.
Medium- and short-grain production increased by 0.9 million cwt to 59.3 million cwt, nearly unchanged from the prior year.

Supply Forecast

Total U.S. rice supply is forecast at 264.9 million cwt, a 5% decrease from a year earlier.
Long-grain total supply is forecast at 180.0 million cwt, a 10% decrease from a year earlier.
Medium- and short-grain total supply is forecast at 83.0 million cwt, an 8% increase from a year earlier.

Use and Exports

Total U.S. rice use is forecast at 223.0 million cwt, a 3% decrease from a year earlier.
Domestic and residual use was reduced by 6.0 million cwt, while exports were increased by 4.0 million cwt.
U.S. rice exports for 2015/16 are forecast at 102.0 million cwt, a 2% increase from the prior year.
Rough-rice exports are forecast at 35.0 million cwt, a 3% increase from a year earlier.
Milled and brown rice exports (on milled basis) are forecast at 67.0 million cwt, a 1% increase from a year earlier.

Ending Stocks

U.S. ending stocks are forecast at 41.9 million cwt, a 3.1 million cwt increase from the previous forecast.
Long-grain ending stocks are forecast at 23.0 million cwt, a 2.2 million cwt increase.
Medium- and short-grain ending stocks are forecast at 17.0 million cwt, a 6% increase.
The stocks-to-use ratio is forecast at 18.8%, down from 21.1% a year earlier.

Prices

Season-average farm prices (SAFP) for both classes of rice are lower than the previous forecast.
Long-grain SAFP is projected at $11.00-$12.00 per cwt, a 50-cent decrease from the previous forecast.
Medium- and short-grain SAFP is projected at $16.60-$17.60 per cwt, a 40-cent decrease from the previous forecast.
California's medium- and short-grain SAFP is forecast at $20.00-$21.00 per cwt, a 50-cent decrease from the prior year.
Southern medium- and short-grain SAFP is forecast at $11.50-$12.50 per cwt, a 30-cent decrease from the previous forecast.

Global Rice Outlook

Production Forecast

Global rice production for 2015/16 is forecast at 470.1 million tons, an 0.8 million ton increase from the previous forecast.
Production is 2% below a year earlier, with China, the European Union, Mali, and the Philippines reporting increases.
Thailand accounts for more than half of the global area decline.
Global yield is projected at 4.41 tons per hectare, down from the 2014/15 record of 4.46 tons per hectare.

Consumption and Ending Stocks

Global rice consumption is forecast at 484.3 million tons, a 0.4 million ton increase from the previous forecast.
Consumption is expected to exceed production for the third consecutive year.
Global ending stocks are projected to decline 14% from a year earlier to 89.7 million tons, the lowest since 2007/08.

Trade Forecast

Global rice trade for 2016 is projected at 42.1 million tons, a 2% increase from the previous forecast, the second highest on record.
Export forecasts for 2016 were raised for Pakistan, Thailand, the U.S., and Vietnam.
Import forecasts for 2016 were raised for Indonesia and the Philippines, and reduced for Cote d'Ivoire, the EU, Nigeria, and Sri Lanka.

Key International Developments

Exporters

Thailand raised its 2016 export forecast to 10.3 million tons, driven by strong demand and a 2-million-ton agreement with China.
Vietnam raised its 2016 export forecast to 7.3 million tons, a 12% increase from the previous year.
Pakistan raised its 2016 export forecast to 4.6 million tons, driven by larger sales to Indonesia.
U.S. raised its 2016 export forecast to 3.33 million tons, based on strong shipment pace and competitive pricing.

Importers

Indonesia raised its 2016 import forecast to 2.0 million tons, due to delayed purchases from Thailand and Vietnam and El Niño impacts.
Philippines raised its 2016 import forecast to 2.0 million tons, in response to Government supply announcements.
South Africa raised its 2016 import forecast to 1.05 million tons, due to reduced corn supplies.
Honduras raised its 2016 import forecast to 180,000 tons, in response to strong U.S. purchases in late 2015.
Mali lowered its 2016 import forecast to 130,000 tons, due to a larger crop.

Regional Highlights

U.S. States

Arkansas led the decline in rice plantings, accounting for over half of the 340,000 acre reduction.
California saw favorable conditions, resulting in a record yield of 8,890 pounds per acre.
Mississippi, Missouri, Louisiana, and Texas all reported declines in rice plantings and yields, with Texas experiencing the largest drop in plantings since 1901/02.

Global Regions

Asia (especially China, the Philippines) saw increases in production.
Latin America and Southeast Asia are key markets for U.S. rice exports.
Africa and Middle East are significant buyers of U.S. medium- and short-grain rice.

Summary of Key Trends

U.S. production increased slightly, but domestic use decreased.
Exports were raised due to strong shipment pace and competitive pricing.
Global production declined for the second consecutive year.
Global consumption is expected to exceed production, leading to a 14% decline in ending stocks.
Prices for both long-grain and medium- and short-grain rice are lower than the previous forecast.
California and Thailand are the largest contributors to U.S. medium- and short-grain and long-grain supplies, respectively.
Thailand and Vietnam are the largest exporters globally.
Indonesia and Philippines are the largest importers of U.S. rice.