20240127-五矿期货-锌周报_宏观情绪向好_炼厂利润承压__30页_3mb

报告摘要

Zinc Market Analysis Summary: January 27, 2024

Highlights: Zinc prices showed upward momentum last week, driven by improved domestic equity market sentiment post-LPR cut. Benchmark prices: LME zinc rose 423% to 25,775 dollars/ton, while SHFE zinc (2403 contract) climbed 356% to 21,410 yuan/ton. The spread between international and domestic prices narrowed, with the Shanghai-London ratio declining, closing the import window.
Inventory Balance: LME zinc inventories decreased by 105,000 tons, reaching 1.916 million tons. SHFE zinc exchange inventory slight increased by 45 tons to 226,000 tons, including 38,000 tons held by traders. Societal inventory rose by 770,000 tons to nearly 786,000 tons, attributed to reduced buying near the holiday period.
Supply Assessment: Zinc refining margins are constrained, with Chinese spot processing fees at 4,100 yuan/ton and international rates at $80/dry ton, both at low levels. This limits producer profitability and contributes to supply tightness.
Demand Outlook: End-user demand weakened significantly due to Chinese New Year, with industries like galvanization and die-casting cutting production. Galvanization sector operating rates fell to 50.35%, die-casting to 45.74%, and zinc-based oxidation to 55.65%. Overall consumption is expected to decline as factories shut down.
Key Drivers: The recent monetary policy easing boosted domestic risk assets, supporting prices. Supply constraints persist from low refining margins, while demand is seasonal and weak. This points to short-term volatility around the 20,200-21,600 yuan/ton range.
Trading Insight: Market sentiment suggests cautious positioning, with no strong recommendations for short-term trades due to supply-demand imbalances and holiday-related demand decline. The overall market is expected to stay range-bound for the immediate term.

Summary Concluded

The report indicates a mixed but generally volatile market, with supply more resilient than demand currently, potentially leading to narrowing price ranges. Continuous monitoring of holiday impacts and processing fee levels is advised.

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