20250612-大越期货-聚烯烃早报_18页_762kb

LLDPE Summary

The LLDPE market is analyzed with a mixed outlook due to various factors. Fundamentally, the macroeconomic situation shows slight improvement in PMI, easing discussions on U.S.-China tariffs, and support from rising oil and coal prices, which underpin costs. However, supply and demand are neutral to bearish, with seasonal low demand for agro films, ongoing factory downtime, high inventory levels, and potential new capacity additions creating downward pressure. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term, supported by costs but constrained by weak demand and inventory pressures. Key risks include significant oil price volatility and U.S. policy uncertainties.

PP Summary

For PP, the analysis mirrors LLDPE with a focus on cost support from energy rebounds and slight PMI uplift, amid ongoing tariff discussions. Supply-demand balance remains neutral, characterized by weak demand from sectors like tubing and woven bags, high inventory, and seasonal factors. The outlook is for short-term oscillation, influenced by cost dynamics but hampered by overall weak demand. Risks are similar, highlighting oil price swings and policy-related issues that could impact prices.

Supply-Demand Balance Overview

The data shows steady growth in both PE and PP capacity and consumption over the years 2018-2025E, indicating increasing market volumes. For instance, PE capacity rose from 18,695 kt in 2018 to an expected 43,195 kt by 2025, while PP mirrored similar expansion. This points to sustained industry development but also risks from overcapacity if demand does not keep pace.

Key Risks

Common threats to both LLDPE and PP include global oil price fluctuations and U.S. policy uncertainties, which could disrupt markets. No specific recommendations are provided, as this report is for informational purposes only.