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2016/17 U.S. and Global Rice Outlook Summary

Core Content Overview

This report provides an update on the U.S. and global rice production, supply, trade, and price forecasts for the 2016/17 marketing year. It includes revised estimates based on the latest data and outlines the outlook for the next marketing year, 2017.

U.S. Rice Outlook

Production Estimate

• The 2016/17 U.S. rice production was lowered by 10.6 million cwt to 224.1 million cwt, still 16% above the previous year.
• Arkansas, Missouri, and Texas accounted for 85% of the downward revision in the U.S. production estimate.
• Arkansas had the largest increase in rice plantings (up 18% to 1.55 million acres), with long-grain dominating the expansion.
• California increased plantings by 26% to 541,000 acres, returning to more typical levels after drought-related restrictions.
• Mississippi and Texas saw yields increase by 1% and 7%, respectively, while Arkansas and Louisiana had lower yields due to adverse weather conditions.
• Louisiana had the largest area reduction for medium- and short-grain rice, while California saw a significant increase in medium- and short-grain area.

Exports and Use

• Rough-rice exports increased by 1.0 million cwt to 43.0 million cwt, while milled-rice exports decreased by the same amount.
• Total U.S. rice exports were forecast at 112.0 million cwt, up 4% from 2015/16.
• Domestic and residual use was lowered by 1.0 million cwt to 132.0 million cwt, still 19% above the previous year.
• Ending stocks were reduced by 9.6 million cwt to 50.1 million cwt, the largest since 1986/87.
• All-rice ending stocks are 8% above the previous year, with long-grain stocks at 29.7 million cwt and medium- and short-grain stocks at 17.6 million cwt.

Prices

• Season-average farm prices for both classes of rice are expected to decline.
• All-rice season-average farm price (SAFP) is projected at $9.90–$10.90 per cwt, down from $12.10 in 2015/16.
• Long-grain SAFP is $9.20–$10.20 per cwt, down from $11.10 in 2015/16.
• Medium- and short-grain SAFP is $11.90–$12.90 per cwt, down from $15.30 in 2015/16.
• California medium- and short-grain prices remain well below the previous year, at $13.00–$14.00 per cwt.
• U.S. milled rice prices continue to decline, with Southern long-grain at $450 per ton and long-grain rough rice at $240 per ton.

Global Rice Outlook

Production

• Global production for 2016/17 was lowered by 1.5 million tons to 480.0 million tons, still the highest on record.
• Major downward revisions were made for Brazil, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and the U.S., due to smaller harvested areas and weaker yields.
• Sri Lanka had its smallest crop since 2006/07, with yields at 3.46 tons per hectare, the lowest since 2003/04.
• Pakistan saw a 140,000-hectare reduction in harvested area, with production down 2–3% from the previous year.
• Brazil had a reduction in nonirrigated rice plantings, leading to a smaller crop but record high yields for the entire country.
• Russia saw a reduction in production by 75,000 tons due to lower yields.

Consumption and Trade

• Global consumption for 2016/17 is projected at 477.8 million tons, a record high and nearly unchanged from 2014/15.
• Global trade for 2017 is expected at 40.8 million tons, up 3% from the previous year but below the 2014 record.
• Thailand and Vietnam are expected to increase exports in 2017, with Thailand’s exports raised to 9.7 million tons and Vietnam’s exports projected to increase.
• U.S. milled rice prices continue to decline, while Thailand’s export prices remain unchanged.

Key Information

• U.S. supplies are forecast at 294.1 million cwt, the second highest on record, down 3.5% from the previous forecast.
• Beginning stocks for all rice are 46.5 million cwt, down 4% from the previous year.
• Imports are forecast at 23.5 million cwt, down 3% from the previous year, with brokens being the main category affected.
• Ending stocks are 50.1 million cwt, still 8% above the previous year, with all-rice stocks-to-use ratio at 20.5%.
• Thailand’s prices for regular-milled white rice and jasmine rice remain unchanged, while Vietnam’s prices are $29 per ton lower than Thailand’s similar grades.
• Global ending stocks are 118.7 million tons, down 1% from the previous forecast, but 2% above the previous year.
• Global trade in 2016 was 39.7 million tons, down 7% from the previous year, with declines in exports from major producers like Australia, India, and Vietnam offsetting increases from Argentina, Pakistan, and the U.S..

Summary of Changes

Contacts and Resources

• Nathan Childs: nchilds@ers.usda.gov, (202) 694-5292
• Beverly Payton: bpayton@ers.usda.gov, (202) 694-5165
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• Data and Reports:
  • Rice Monthly Tables
  • Rice Chart Gallery
  • Rice Outlook Reports