20220114-USDA-USDA_Rice_Outlook_2022.1.14_18页_430kb

Rice Outlook Summary - January 2022

Core Content

This report provides an updated analysis of the U.S. and global rice markets for the 2021/22 marketing year. It includes revised production, import, export, and use forecasts, along with insights into price trends and market dynamics.

Main Points

U.S. Domestic Outlook

• Rice Production:
  The U.S. 2021/22 rice production is estimated at 191.8 million cwt, a 2.0 million cwt reduction from the previous forecast. This is 16% below the 2020/21 level due to smaller harvested areas, with Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Missouri all showing declines, except for Missouri which saw a slight increase due to record yields.

• Harvested Area:
  Harvested area for the 2021/22 crop is estimated at 2.49 million acres, a 17% decline from the previous year. Texas had a 1% increase, while Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Missouri all saw reductions.

• Yield:
  The U.S. average yield is forecast at 7,709 pounds per acre, up 90 pounds from the previous year and the highest on record. Arkansas and Missouri saw the largest yield increases, while Texas had a 16% decrease due to persistent rainfall and delayed harvests.

• Import Forecast:
  The U.S. 2021/22 rice import forecast was lowered to 31.0 million cwt, a 2.5 million cwt reduction from the previous forecast. This is 9% below the 2020/21 level. Long-grain imports account for the majority of the reduction, with Thailand still the largest supplier.

• Export Forecast:
  U.S. rice exports are projected at 88.0 million cwt, a 1.0 million cwt decrease from the previous forecast. Long-grain exports remain at 64.0 million cwt, while medium- and short-grain exports are forecast at 24.0 million cwt, down 17% from the previous year. Haiti and Central America are the top markets for long-grain, and Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are the largest markets for medium- and short-grain.

• Domestic and Residual Use:
  Total domestic and residual use is estimated at 145.5 million cwt, a 2.0 million cwt decrease from the previous forecast. Long-grain use is forecast at 113.0 million cwt, while medium- and short-grain use remains at 32.5 million cwt.

• Ending Stocks:
  The U.S. 2021/22 ending stocks forecast is 33.0 million cwt, a 1.5 million cwt decrease from the previous forecast. The stocks-to-use ratio is expected to drop to 14.2%, down from 17.7% in the previous year. Long-grain stocks are projected at 21.4 million cwt, and medium- and short-grain stocks at 9.1 million cwt.

• Season-Average Prices:
  Season-average farm prices (SAFP) for long-grain rice and medium- and short-grain rice in the South and California have been raised. The California medium- and short-grain SAFP is forecast at $24.00 per cwt, the highest since 2008/09.

Global Outlook

• Global Production:
  Global rice production for 2021/22 is forecast at 509.9 million tons, a 0.9 million ton decrease from the previous forecast but still the highest on record. Production forecasts were lowered for Mali, Sri Lanka, and the United States, but raised for Colombia and Vietnam.

• Global Consumption and Residual Use:
  Global rice consumption and residual use is projected at 510.3 million tons, a 0.6 million ton decrease from the previous forecast but still a record high. Consumption and residual use forecasts were lowered for Mali, the United States, and others, but raised for Brazil, Cote d'Ivoire, and Vietnam.

• Global Ending Stocks:
  Global rice ending stocks are expected to drop to 186.1 million tons, a 0.7 million ton decrease from the previous forecast.

• Global Trade:
  Global rice trade for 2022 is projected at 49.5 million tons, a 0.7 million ton increase from the previous forecast, but still 2% below the pre-pandemic level.

• Major Exporters and Importers:
  India has raised its export forecasts for both 2021 and 2022. Thailand remains the largest supplier of long-grain rice to the U.S., while India and China are the top suppliers of medium- and short-grain rice.

Key Information

• California experienced a 21% reduction in harvested area due to severe drought, while Missouri saw a 0.5% increase in production due to a record yield.
• Texas had a 15% decline in production despite an increase in harvested area, due to weaker yields.
• Political instability, gang violence, and an earthquake have hindered trade with Haiti.
• South American exporters are expected to increase their market share in Latin America and Northeast Asia, especially in Mexico and Central America.
• India's Government-held stocks are available for export, with North Africa, the Middle East, and Oceania as major destinations.
• Australia is expected to increase its exports due to a strong area expansion and higher global trading prices for medium-grain rice.
• Thailand and India have seen declines in their export volumes to the U.S., primarily due to supply chain disruptions and higher freight costs.

Summary Table