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报告摘要

2017/18 U.S. and Global Rice Outlook Summary

Core Content Overview

This report provides an updated forecast for the 2017/18 U.S. and global rice markets, including production, supply, use, and price outlooks. It is approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board and outlines changes from previous forecasts, emphasizing the impact of weather conditions and market dynamics.

U.S. Domestic Outlook

Crop Forecast

U.S. 2017/18 Rice Crop: Forecast at 186.5 million cwt, a 4.8 million cwt reduction from the previous forecast and 17% below the 2016/17 level.
Smallest crop since 2011/12.
Yield Forecast: 7,513 pounds per acre, 194 pounds below the previous forecast but 4% higher than a year earlier.
Harvested Area: Remains at 2.48 million acres, 20% lower than 2016/17.
Delta States: Account for 85% of the projected decline, with Arkansas, Mississippi, and Louisiana experiencing significant area and yield reductions due to historical flooding and adverse weather.

Supplies and Use

Total U.S. Rice Supplies: Projected at 256.6 million cwt, a 5.0 million cwt reduction from the previous forecast and 37.3 million cwt below 2016/17.
Domestic and Residual Use: Forecast at 117.5 million cwt, a 2.5 million cwt reduction from the previous forecast and 11% below 2016/17.
Exports: Remain unchanged at 109.0 million cwt, 6% below 2016/17 due to higher U.S. prices and increased global competition.

Ending Stocks

U.S. Ending Stocks: Projected at 30.1 million cwt, a 2.5 million cwt reduction from the previous forecast and 34.5% below 2016/17.
Stocks-to-Use Ratio: 13.3%, the lowest since 2007/08.

Farm Prices

Season-Average Farm Prices (SAPF): Raised for both classes of rice and growing regions.
Long-Grain SAPF: $11.50-$12.50 per cwt, 30 cents higher than the previous forecast and well above 2016/17's $9.60.
Medium- and Short-Grain SAPF: $14.20-$15.20 per cwt, 80 cents higher than the previous forecast and up from $12.80 in 2016/17.
All-Rice SAPF: $12.20-$13.20 per cwt, 40 cents higher than the previous forecast and higher than $10.30 in 2016/17.

International Outlook

Global Production

2017/18 Global Production: Forecast at 482.6 million tons, 1.1 million tons below the previous forecast and 1.3 million tons below the 2016/17 record.
Harvested Area: A record 161.8 million hectares, up 1.7 million hectares from the previous year.
Yield: Global average yield of 4.45 tons per hectare, down from the 2016/17 record of 4.51 tons per hectare, mainly due to India's expanded area and lower yields.

Production Revisions

Bangladesh: Reduced by 0.4 million tons due to flash flooding in April.
Sri Lanka: Reduced by 0.4 million tons due to reduced yala crop and drought effects.
U.S.: Reduced by 153,000 tons due to lower yield and flooding in the Delta.

Consumption

2017/18 Global Consumption: Forecast at 479.1 million tons, 0.6 million tons below the previous forecast and 1.3 million tons below the 2016/17 record.
Consumption Reductions: Occurred in China, Nigeria, South Korea, Japan, and the U.S..
Consumption Increases: Occurred in India, Burma, and Cambodia.

Ending Stocks

Global Ending Stocks: Projected to increase 3% to 122.9 million tons, the highest since 2001/02.
Thailand: Accounts for most of the increase in global ending stocks.
China: Accounts for 61% of global ending stocks, up 9% from the previous year.
Global Stocks-to-Use Ratio: 25.7%, up from 24.9% in 2016/17.

Trade Outlook

2017 Global Trade

Forecast: 43.2 million tons, 7% higher than 2016/17 and the third-highest on record.
Export Increases: From Burma, China, India, the U.S., and Vietnam.
Import Increases: From Bangladesh, China, Ecuador, Madagascar, Nigeria, the Philippines, Saudi Arabia, and Sri Lanka.
Import Decreases: Indonesia and Colombia are projected to see reduced imports.

2018 Global Trade

Forecast: 43.9 million tons, 0.5 million tons higher than the previous forecast and 0.7 million tons above the year-earlier revised forecast.
Export Increases: From Australia, Brazil, China, India, and Pakistan.
Import Increases: From Angola, Cote d'Ivoire, Cuba, Guinea, Iraq, Madagascar, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Sierra Leone, and the United Arab Emirates.
Export Reductions: From Egypt due to an export ban.

Key Points

Weather Impact: Severe flooding in the U.S. Delta and California delayed plantings and reduced yields.
Market Dynamics: Higher U.S. prices and increased global competition led to reduced exports.
Global Trends: Global production exceeded consumption, leading to higher ending stocks.
India's Role: India's export forecast increased by 0.5 million tons to 11.5 million tons, marking a near-record level.
Sri Lanka and Bangladesh: Both experienced reduced production due to weather-related issues, leading to increased imports.

Supporting Data

Maps A and B: Show production changes and percent changes by U.S. state.
Map C and D: Highlight global production revisions and percentage changes.
Table A: Summarizes trade forecasts for 2017 and 2018, including export and import changes and comments on revisions.