20140114-USDA-Rice_Outlook_23页_214kb

报告摘要

Rice Outlook Summary (RCS-14a, January 14, 2014)

Core Content Overview

This report provides an updated forecast for U.S. and global rice production, use, trade, and prices for the 2013/14 crop year. Key changes and trends are analyzed based on revised estimates from the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) and global market conditions.

U.S. Rice Production and Use

Production Estimate

Total U.S. 2013/14 rice production is estimated at 189.9 million cwt, up 1.2 million cwt from the previous estimate.
All rice yield increased to a record 7,694 pounds per acre, up 34 pounds from the previous forecast.
Planted area rose by 4,000 acres to 2.49 million acres, still the smallest since 1987/88.
Long-grain production increased by 2%, while combined medium- and short-grain production decreased by 3%.

Regional Production Changes

Arkansas: 80.9 million cwt, down 16% from the previous year.
Mississippi: 9.2 million cwt, down 1%.
Missouri: 11.0 million cwt, down 11%.
Texas: 11.1 million cwt, down 1%.
Louisiana: 30.1 million cwt, up 18% due to expanded area and record yield.
California: 566,000 acres planted, up 1% from the previous year, with a yield of 8,480 pounds per acre.

Domestic and Residual Use

Total domestic and residual use is projected at 120.0 million cwt, up 4.0 million cwt from the previous forecast.
Long-grain use is estimated at 88.0 million cwt, up 4.0 million cwt from the previous forecast.
Combined medium- and short-grain use is estimated at 32.0 million cwt, up 11% from the previous year.

Exports

Total U.S. exports are projected at 99.0 million cwt, down 1.0 million cwt from the previous forecast and 8% below the previous year.
Long-grain exports are estimated at 67.0 million cwt, down 12% from the previous year.
Combined medium- and short-grain exports are estimated at 32.0 million cwt, up 3% from the previous year.
Rough-rice exports are estimated at 35.0 million cwt, up 0.8 million cwt from the previous year.
Milled and brown rice exports are estimated at 64.0 million cwt, down 1.0 million cwt from the previous forecast.

Ending Stocks

U.S. ending stocks for all rice are forecast at 28.3 million cwt, down 1.85 million cwt from the previous forecast and 22% below the previous year.
Long-grain carryout is estimated at 17.3 million cwt, down 21% from the previous year.
Medium- and short-grain carryout is estimated at 8.7 million cwt, down 29% from the previous year.
U.S. stocks-to-use ratio is at 12.9%, the lowest since 2007/08.

Season-Average Farm Price (SAFP)

Long-grain SAFP remains forecast at $14.80–$15.80 per cwt, up from $14.40 per cwt a year earlier.
Combined medium- and short-grain SAFP is forecast at $16.30–$17.30 per cwt, down 50 cents per cwt on both ends from the previous forecast.

Global Rice Outlook

Production

Global rice production for 2013/14 is forecast at a record 471.1 million tons, up 0.55 million tons from the previous forecast.
Production increases were reported for Brazil, Pakistan, and the U.S..
Global rice area expanded to 160.1 million hectares, up 2.7 million hectares from the previous year.
Yield is forecast at 4.39 tons per hectare, slightly below the 2012/13 record due to adverse weather in China and India.

Use and Trade

Global rice use (including residual) is projected at 473.1 million tons, up 0.2 million tons from the previous forecast.
Global rice trade for 2014 is forecast at a record 40.2 million tons, up 1.9 million tons from 2013.
Pakistan's 2014 export forecast was raised by 0.4 million tons to 3.4 million tons, while Philippines' import forecast was raised by 0.2 million tons to 1.4 million tons.

Price Trends

Thailand's rice prices declined by 4–10% for most grades, with premium jasmine rice at $1,018 per ton for the week ending January 6.
Vietnam's prices also declined, influenced by lower prices from other sources and expected harvest of its main crop.
U.S. long-grain milled rice prices dropped slightly, with $590 per ton for the week ending January 7.
U.S. long-grain rough-rice prices remain at $380 per ton for the week ending December 10.

Ending Stocks

Global ending stocks for 2013/14 are forecast at 105.2 million tons, up 0.9 million tons from the previous forecast but down 1.9 million tons from the previous year.
Thailand is projected to have record ending stocks of 14.7 million tons, while China, India, Indonesia, the U.S., and Vietnam are expected to see smaller stocks.

Key Trends and Drivers

U.S. supply reductions and increased competition from Asian exporters are expected to impact U.S. rice prices.
Weather conditions and crop yields are significant factors in both U.S. and global production changes.
Global demand is shifting, with Bangladesh, Brazil, Cambodia, China, Egypt, India, Indonesia, and Vietnam driving the increase in consumption.
Thailand and Vietnam are key players in global rice trade, with Thailand's prices now lower than Vietnam's for similar grades.

Conclusion

The 2013/14 U.S. rice crop is expected to be slightly higher than the previous forecast, but lower than the previous year, with long-grain showing the most improvement. Global production is at a record high, driven by increased area and favorable weather. However, global ending stocks are expected to decline for the first time since 2006/07, with Thailand leading the increase in stocks. Price declines are widespread, particularly in Thailand and Vietnam, affecting U.S. export competitiveness. U.S. ending stocks are at a 22-year low, with stocks-to-use ratios at their lowest levels since 2007/08.