20210714-USDA-USDA_Rice_Outlook_2021.07.14_15页_517kb

Rice Outlook Summary

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the U.S. and global rice market conditions for the 2021/22 crop year, including production, supply, use, and price forecasts, as well as regional and international trade updates.

U.S. Domestic Outlook

2021/22 Rice Crop Projection

• Total U.S. production for 2021/22 is projected at 199.34 million cwt, a 2% decrease from the previous forecast and a 12% decline from the same period in 2020/21.
• Harvested area is estimated at 2.616 million acres, 12% below the 2020/21 level and 45,000 acres less than the previous forecast.
• Yield is projected at 7,620 pounds per acre, 32 pounds less than the previous forecast due to a smaller share of California plantings, which are typically higher yielding than Southern states.

Regional Planting and Crop Progress

• Planted area for 2021/22 was lowered 2% to 2.66 million acres, with significant declines in California (19%), Arkansas (15%), and Mississippi (34%).
• Long-grain planting is 2.077 million acres, 11% below the previous year and unchanged from March intended plantings.
• Medium- and short-grain planting is 584,000 acres, 48,000 acres less than the March forecast and 17% below the previous year.
• Crop progress as of July 4:
  • Arkansas: 2% headed, 1% above 2020/21 but 2% below the 5-year average.
  • Missouri: 1% headed, 2% behind 2020/21 and 4% below the 5-year average.
  • Mississippi: 13% headed, 3% behind 2020/21 and 13% below the 5-year average.
  • Louisiana: 40% headed, 17% behind 2020/21 and 14% below the 5-year average.
  • Texas: 56% headed, unchanged from the 5-year average but 1% behind 2020/21.
  • California: 15% headed, 4% behind 2020/21 but 3% ahead of the 5-year average.

Supply and Use Projections

• Total U.S. supplies for 2021/22 are projected at 284.3 million cwt, 1.2 million cwt above the previous forecast but 2% below the 2020/21 level.
• Long-grain supplies are at 216.1 million cwt, 4 million cwt above the previous forecast and nearly unchanged from 2020/21.
• Medium- and short-grain supplies are projected at 67.1 million cwt, 2.8 million cwt below the previous forecast and 9% below 2020/21, the smallest since 1998/99.
• Total use for 2021/22 is projected at 243.0 million cwt, 1% below 2020/21.
• Exports are forecast at 90.0 million cwt, 2 million cwt above the previous forecast but 3% below the year-earlier revised forecast.
• Domestic and residual use is forecast at 153.0 million cwt, 3 million cwt below the previous forecast but 1 million cwt above the year-earlier revised forecast, the highest on record.

Ending Stocks and Prices

• Ending stocks for 2021/22 are forecast at 41.3 million cwt, 2.3 million cwt above the previous forecast but 10% below the year-earlier revised forecast.
• All-rice stocks-to-use ratio is 17.0%, down from 18.8% a year earlier.
• Long-grain ending stocks are forecast at 33.1 million cwt, 3 million cwt below the previous forecast but 1% above the year-earlier level.
• Medium- and short-grain ending stocks are projected at 7.1 million cwt, 10% below the previous forecast and 41% below the year-earlier level.
• Stocks-to-use ratio for medium- and short-grain is 11.9%, down from 19.6% a year earlier.
• Season-average farm prices (SAFP) for 2021/22:
  • California medium- and short-grain: Raised to $22.00 per cwt, up $2.30 from 2020/21 and the highest since 2008/09.
  • Southern medium- and short-grain: Raised to $13.50 per cwt, up 50 cents from 2020/21 and the highest since 2014/15.
  • Long-grain SAFP in 2020/21 was reduced by 10 cents to $12.50 per cwt, down from $13.00 in 2020/21.

International Outlook

Global Production and Consumption

• Global rice production for 2021/22 is forecast at 506.0 million tons (milled basis), a 0.6 million ton decrease from the previous forecast.
• Global rice consumption is projected at 514.0 million tons, also a 0.6 million ton decrease from the previous forecast.
• Global ending stocks are forecast at 167.0 million tons, 1.5 million tons below the previous forecast and 7.9 million tons below the year-earlier level.
• India accounts for the bulk of the downward revision in global ending stocks.

Trade Projections

• Global rice trade in calendar year 2022 is projected at 47.0 million tons, 0.1 million tons above the previous forecast but 0.9 million tons below the year-earlier revised forecast.
• Weaker imports by Bangladesh of Indian rice are a major factor behind the projected smaller global trade.
• Export forecasts for 2022 were raised for Australia and Brazil.
• Import forecasts for 2022 were raised for China and Egypt.
• India's 2021 exports were raised by 1.0 million tons to a record 18.0 million tons.
• Top suppliers of medium- and short-grain rice to the U.S. are China, India, and Thailand, with India increasing its share in the U.S. market since June 2020.
• Thailand is the largest supplier of long-grain rice to the U.S., with jasmine rice as the primary product.
• Vietnam and India are the second and fourth-largest suppliers of long-grain rice, respectively.
• Brazil is the third-largest supplier, exporting both whole-grain and broken-kernel rice.

Price Trends

• Thailand's regularly milled white rice prices declined 8-9% from the previous month.
• Vietnam's prices for both old and new crops also declined.
• India's prices remain the most competitive in Asia.
• U.S. long-grain milled prices are unchanged since early June.
• California medium- and short-grain milled prices have continued to rise.

Key Information

• U.S. production is expected to decline by more than 12% in 2021/22 due to lower harvested area and weather impacts.
• California is the main contributor to the decline in harvested area, driven by severe drought and low reservoir levels.
• U.S. exports of all rice are up 2.0 million cwt from the previous forecast, with Venezuela being a major buyer of long-grain rough-rice.
• Domestic and residual use is down 3.0 million cwt from the previous forecast but up 1.0 million cwt from the year-earlier level.
• Global trade is expected to decline slightly due to weaker imports by Bangladesh and reduced U.S. supplies.
• India is increasing its share in the U.S. medium- and short-grain market, with China and Thailand as the top suppliers.
• Prices for medium- and short-grain rice are rising in the U.S., while Thailand and Vietnam experienced price declines.
• Ending stocks for 2021/22 are 41.3 million cwt, 10% below the year-earlier level, indicating tighter supply conditions.

Summary Table