20161213-USDA-Rice_Outlook_19页_536kb

报告摘要

Rice Outlook Summary (RCS-16L, Dec. 13, 2016)

Core Content Overview

This report provides an analysis of the 2016/17 U.S. and global rice market outlook, including production forecasts, trade expectations, and price trends.

U.S. Domestic Outlook

Production and Supply

Total U.S. rice production for 2016/17 is projected at 234.8 million cwt, a 22% increase from the previous year, making it the second highest on record.
Planted area increased by 22% to 3.18 million acres, with Arkansas and California accounting for two-thirds of the increase.
Yield for 2016/17 is 7,493 pounds per acre, up 23 pounds from the previous year.
Long-grain production is forecast at 176.1 million cwt, a 32% increase from the previous year.
Medium- and short-grain production remains at 58.7 million cwt, 1% below the previous year.
Total U.S. supplies are projected at 304.7 million cwt, the highest on record.
Long-grain supplies are forecast at 219.3 million cwt, up 22% from the previous year.
Medium- and short-grain supplies are projected at 82.6 million cwt, up 1% from the previous year.
Total imports are forecast at 23.5 million cwt, down 3% from the previous year, marking the second consecutive decline.
Beginning stocks are estimated at 46.5 million cwt, down 4% from the previous year.

Use and Exports

Total rice use for 2016/17 is forecast at 245.0 million cwt, with domestic use at 133.0 million cwt and exports at 112.0 million cwt.
Rough-rice exports are forecast at 42.0 million cwt, up 10% from the previous year, with a 1.0-million-cwt increase due to stronger sales to Latin America.
Milled rice exports are forecast at 70.0 million cwt, down 1.0 million cwt from the previous month, due to lack of sales outside core markets.
Ending stocks are forecast at 59.7 million cwt, the highest since 1985/86, up 29% from the previous year.
Long-grain ending stocks are forecast at 37.3 million cwt, up 64% from the previous year.
Medium- and short-grain ending stocks are forecast at 19.6 million cwt, down 6% from the previous year.

Farm Prices

U.S. season-average farm price (SAFP) for 2016/17 is projected at $9.90 to $10.90 per cwt, a 20-cent decline from the previous month and below $12.10 in 2015/16.
Long-grain SAFP is projected at $9.20 to $10.20 per cwt, down from $11.10 in 2015/16.
California medium- and short-grain SAFP is projected at $13.00 to $14.00 per cwt, down $1.50 from the previous forecast and well below the $18.30 in 2015/16.
Southern medium- and short-grain SAFP is projected at $9.20 to $10.20 per cwt, down from $11.20 in 2015/16.
U.S. all-rice SAFP is projected at $9.90 to $10.90 per cwt, down from $12.10 in 2015/16.

International Outlook

Global Production

Global production for 2016/17 is forecast at 481.5 million tons, up 2% from the previous year, the highest on record.
Production forecasts were lowered for China, the Philippines, Colombia, Guyana, and Iraq due to smaller area and lower yields.
China's production is forecast at 144.85 million tons, down 0.9 million tons from the previous year due to severe summer flooding.
Philippines' production is forecast at 11.5 million tons, down 0.5 million tons due to two typhoons in October.
Guyana's production is forecast at 560,000 tons, down 16% from the previous year due to dry weather and low profit margins.
Colombia's production is forecast at 1.63 million tons, up 16% from the previous year.
Uruguay's production is forecast at 910,000 tons, up 3% from the previous year.
Iraq's production is forecast at 173,000 tons, up 57% from the previous year.
Peru's production forecast was raised by 130,000 tons to 2.18 million tons due to higher area estimates.

Global Consumption and Stocks

Global consumption is forecast at 477.4 million tons, slightly down from the previous forecast but up 2% from the previous year.
Global ending stocks are projected at 120.2 million tons, up 3% from the previous forecast and the highest since 2001/02.
China accounts for the bulk of the increase in global ending stocks, at 69.3 million tons, the highest since 2001/02.
U.S. ending stocks are forecast at 1.9 million tons, the highest in three decades.
India and Thailand's ending stocks are projected to decline in 2016/17.

Global Trade

Global trade for 2017 is projected at 40.6 million tons, up 2.6% from the previous year, but below the 2014 record of 44.1 million tons.
U.S. and Vietnam's trading prices declined, while Thailand's prices rose.
Export revisions include lower forecasts for Burma, Guyana, and China, and higher forecasts for Peru and Cote d'Ivoire.
Import revisions include higher forecasts for Cote d'Ivoire and Guinea, and lower forecasts for Malaysia and Bangladesh.
2016 global trade is projected at 39.6 million tons, down 7% from the previous year.

Key Price Trends

Thailand's prices for most grades of regular-milled white rice increased 3-5%, with Grade B milled rice at $379 per ton and jasmine rice at $593 per ton.
Vietnam's high-quality 5%-broken kernels are quoted at $337 per ton, down $13 from the previous month.
U.S. long-grain milled rice prices continued to decline due to a bumper crop and lack of new sales.
U.S. long-grain rough rice prices are at $250 per ton, unchanged from the previous month.
California medium- and short-grain milled rice prices are unchanged, at $618 per ton.
Export prices for California medium-grain milled rice are down $15 to $650 per ton.

Important Notes and Updates

The Rice Chart Gallery will be updated on December 15, 2016.
The next release is scheduled for January 17, 2017.
The U.S. rice balance sheet had no supply side revisions this month.
Rice Outlook is approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board.

Contact and Subscription Information

Nathan Childs (domestic): nchilds@ers.usda.gov, (202) 694-5292
Beverly Payton (Web Publishing): bpayton@ers.usda.gov, (202) 694-5165
Subscribe to ERS e-mail notifications at: http://www.ers.usda.gov/subscribe-to-ers-e-newletters/
Rice Monthly Tables: http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/?page=1&topicId=0&authorId=0&seriesCode=RCS&sort=CopyrightDate&sortDir=desc
Rice Chart Gallery: http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/rice-chart-gallery/
Related Websites:

Summary of Key Points

U.S. production is at a record high due to increased area and yield.
U.S. ending stocks are projected at 59.7 million cwt, the highest since 1985/86.
Global production is also at a record high, up 2% from the previous year.
Global trade is expected to increase 2.6% to 40.6 million tons in 2017, but remains below record levels.
Thailand's prices rose, while U.S. and Vietnam's prices declined.
California medium- and short-grain prices were lowered due to lower demand and market expectations.
China, the Philippines, Colombia, and Guyana experienced production reductions due to weather and yield issues.
Global ending stocks are up 3%, with China being the main contributor.
U.S. long-grain exports are forecast to increase, while milled rice exports remain unchanged.
Price revisions reflect market dynamics and supply changes.