20211112-USDA-USDA_Rice_Outlook_2021.11.12_18页_505kb

报告摘要

Rice Outlook Summary: November 2021

Core Content

The Rice Outlook report for the 2021/22 season provides an analysis of U.S. and global rice production, trade, and market conditions. Key revisions in production, imports, exports, and ending stocks have been made, with the U.S. and global markets showing mixed trends in supply and demand.

U.S. Domestic Outlook

Production Forecast

Total U.S. production for 2021/22 is raised to 193.8 million cwt, an increase of 1.8 million cwt from the previous forecast.
Yield for 2021/22 is a record 7,756 pounds per acre, up 131 pounds from the previous forecast and 137 pounds above a year earlier.
Harvested area remains 2.5 million acres, 16 percent below a year earlier, with the exception of Texas, where it increased by 5 percent.
Long-grain production is raised to 146.7 million cwt, down 14 percent from a year earlier due to reduced area.
Medium- and short-grain production is forecast at 47.1 million cwt, up 0.8 million cwt from the previous forecast, but 17 percent below a year earlier, the smallest since 2005/06.
California has the smallest harvested area at 405,000 acres, down 21 percent from a year earlier due to severe drought and low reservoir levels.
Arkansas and Louisiana account for most of the remaining U.S. medium- and short-grain production.

Supply and Use

Total U.S. supplies are forecast at 272.5 million cwt, up 2.3 million cwt from the previous forecast, but 6 percent below a year earlier.
Long-grain supplies are forecast at 29.7 million cwt, 76 percent higher than 2020/21.
Medium- and short-grain supplies are projected at 11.5 million cwt, up 7 percent from a year earlier.

Imports

U.S. long-grain imports are forecast at 27.0 million cwt, down 1.0 million cwt from the previous forecast and 1 percent from a year earlier.
Long-grain imports slowed due to container shortages and high ocean freight costs.
India and Thailand are the main long-grain suppliers, with Thailand providing 42,941 tons in September, up 12.5 percent from a year earlier.
Brazil and Pakistan also supply long-grain rice, though at much lower volumes.

Exports

U.S. all-rice exports are forecast at 90.0 million cwt, down 1.0 million cwt from the previous forecast and 4 percent from a year earlier.
Long-grain exports are projected at 64.0 million cwt, down 1.0 million cwt from the previous forecast and 2 percent from a year earlier.
Medium- and short-grain exports are projected at 26.0 million cwt, down 10 percent from 2020/21.
Mexico is the largest export market for long-grain rice, while Japan, Iraq, Haiti, and Canada are the main buyers of medium- and short-grain rice.

Domestic and Residual Use

Domestic and residual use is raised to 147.5 million cwt, up 1.5 million cwt from the previous forecast.
Long-grain domestic use is forecast at 115.0 million cwt, up 1.0 million cwt from the previous forecast.
Medium- and short-grain domestic use is forecast at 32.5 million cwt, up 0.5 million cwt from the previous forecast and slightly above a year earlier.

Ending Stocks

U.S. ending stocks are forecast at 35.0 million cwt, up 1.8 million cwt from the previous forecast but 20 percent below a year earlier.
All-rice stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 14.7 percent, down from 17.7 percent a year earlier.
Long-grain ending stocks are forecast at 24.5 million cwt, down 1.5 million cwt from the previous forecast.
Medium- and short-grain ending stocks are forecast at 8.0 million cwt, up 0.3 million cwt from the previous forecast but 30 percent below a year earlier.

Farm Prices

U.S. season-average farm prices (SAFP) for all rice are forecast at $14.80 per cwt, up $0.80 from the year-earlier revised estimate.
California medium- and short-grain SAFP is forecast at $23.00 per cwt, up $2.10 from the previous estimate and the highest since 2008/09.
Southern medium- and short-grain SAFP is forecast at $14.00 per cwt, up $0.90 from the year-earlier revised estimate.
Long-grain SAFP remains at $13.00 per cwt, up 40 cents from a year earlier.

International Outlook

Global Production

Global rice production for 2021/22 is forecast at a record 511.7 million tons, up 1.0 million tons from the previous forecast and 4.4 million tons above a year earlier.
Production forecasts were raised for Burkina Faso, Chad, Congo (Kinshasa), Ethiopia, Guinea, Tanzania, United States, and Uruguay.
Production forecasts were lowered for Ecuador, Niger, and Turkey.
Congo (Kinshasa) and Guinea accounted for the majority of the upward revision in global production.

Global Consumption and Residual Use

Global rice consumption and residual use are forecast at a record 511.3 million tons, down 1.0 million tons from the previous forecast but 9.7 million tons above a year earlier.
India accounts for the bulk of the downward revision in global consumption and residual use, with its forecast lowered by 1.5 million tons to 103.5 million tons.
China's consumption and residual use is forecast at 154.9 million tons, down 0.2 million cwt from the previous forecast but still a record and up 3 percent from a year earlier.

Global Ending Stocks

Global ending stocks are forecast at a record 187.9 million tons, up 4.3 million tons from the previous forecast and 0.5 million tons above a year earlier.
India accounts for the bulk of the upward revision in global ending stocks.

Global Trade

Global rice trade for calendar year 2022 is projected at 48.7 million tons, down slightly from the previous forecast and 0.6 million tons below the year-earlier record.
India increased its long-grain export forecast, while Burma and China saw reductions.
China is expected to have abundant government-held stocks of medium- and short-grain rice available for export.
Australia is expected to increase its exports due to a strong area expansion in 2021/22, partly due to higher global trading prices for medium-grain rice.

Key Trends

U.S. production increased due to higher yields, but the overall crop is still 15 percent smaller than a year earlier.
Imports were reduced due to slower shipments from Asia, particularly long-grain rice.
Exports declined due to smaller supplies and less competitive prices, with Mexico, Japan, Iraq, and Haiti as key markets.
Ending stocks decreased in the U.S. and globally due to higher consumption and lower production.
Farm prices are projected to rise in the U.S., especially for medium- and short-grain rice, driven by reduced supply and increased demand.
Global production is expected to rise, with India, China, and Thailand leading the increase, while Ecuador, Niger, and Turkey face production declines.