20170413-USDA-USDA_Rice_Outlook_2017.04.13_23页_798kb

报告摘要

Summary of the Rice Outlook Report (RCS-17D, April 13, 2017)

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the U.S. and global rice market conditions and outlook for the 2016/17 and 2017/18 crop years, including planting intentions, production forecasts, trade estimates, and price trends.

U.S. Domestic Outlook

2017/18 Planting Intentions

U.S. rice growers indicated 2.63 million acres for the 2017/18 crop, a 17% decline from the previous year.
Long-grain accounted for all of the decline in planting area.
California remained nearly unchanged with 530,000 acres of medium- and short-grain rice.
Arkansas saw a 23% drop in plantings, the lowest since 2013/14, with long-grain down by 22%.
Louisiana had a 8.5% drop, the lowest since 2007/08, with long-grain accounting for the entire decline.
Mississippi and Missouri also reported significant declines, with 38.5% and 13% respectively.
Texas reported a 15% drop, with long-grain accounting for all of the decline.

2017/18 Crop Progress

By April 9, planting was 31% complete, slightly ahead of the 5-year average.
Gulf Coast States (especially Louisiana) had more advanced planting than the Delta region.
California had not yet started planting, with most activity expected in May.

2016/17 U.S. Rice Supplies

Total U.S. rice supplies are 294.1 million cwt, 11% above the previous year, the second-highest on record.
Long-grain supplies increased by 16% to 209.7 million cwt.
Medium- and short-grain supplies slightly declined to 81.6 million cwt.
Beginning stocks on March 1, 2017, were 46.5 million cwt, down 4% from the previous year.
Long-grain stocks increased to 22.7 million cwt, while medium- and short-grain stocks declined to 20.9 million cwt in the South.

2016/17 Export Forecast

Total U.S. rice exports were raised by 3.0 million cwt to 113.0 million cwt, up 5% from the previous year.
Long-grain exports increased by 2.0 million cwt to 78.0 million cwt.
Medium- and short-grain exports increased by 1.0 million cwt to 35.0 million cwt, the highest since 1980/81.
Milled rice exports were 67.0 million cwt, down 4% from the previous year.
Rough rice exports hit a record 46.0 million cwt, up 20% from the previous year.

2016/17 Ending Stocks

Ending stocks were reduced to 49.1 million cwt, the highest since 1986/87, due to increased exports.
Long-grain ending stocks were 29.7 million cwt, up 31% from the previous year.
Medium- and short-grain ending stocks were 16.6 million cwt, down 25% from the previous year.

Season-Average Farm Prices

U.S. all-rice season-average farm prices (SAFP) are projected at $10.30–$10.70 per cwt, down from $12.20 in the previous year.
Long-grain prices are $9.60–$10.00 per cwt, the lowest since 2011/12.
California medium- and short-grain prices are $13.30–$13.90 per cwt, down from $18.10.
Southern medium- and short-grain prices are $9.80–$10.20 per cwt, the lowest since 2008/09.

Global Outlook

2016/17 Global Production

Global production is projected at 481.1 million tons, a 2% increase from the previous year, the highest on record.
Indonesia, Brazil, and Pakistan saw the largest production revisions.
Indonesia increased production by 0.55 million tons to 37.15 million tons due to expanded area and higher yields.
Pakistan increased production by 160,000 tons to 6.8 million tons, with a record yield.
Brazil increased production by 92,000 tons to 8.16 million tons due to higher area.
Colombia and Peru also saw increases due to higher yields.
Burma and Japan had slight production decreases.

2016/17 Global Use and Stocks

Global consumption (including post-harvest losses) is projected at 479.2 million tons, up 0.4 million tons from the previous forecast.
Global ending stocks are projected at 118.1 million tons, the highest since 2001/02.
Indonesia, Japan, Burma, and U.S. had downward revisions in ending stocks.
China accounts for most of the increase in global ending stocks.

2017 Global Trade

Global trade is projected at 41.0 million tons, down 0.2 million tons from the previous month but up 2% from the previous year.
Egypt and Pakistan saw reductions in exports due to export bans and weak sales.
U.S., Taiwan, and Turkey saw increases in export forecasts.
Indonesia and Uzbekistan had reduced import forecasts, while Bangladesh, Ecuador, Kenya, and Laos saw increases.

Price Trends

Thailand saw minimal price changes for regular-milled white rice, with 100%-Grade B at $382 per ton and parboiled 5%-brokens at $372 per ton.
Vietnam had lower prices for high-quality 5%-broken kernels at $348 per ton, significantly below Thailand's prices.
U.S. long-grain milled rice prices rose slightly, with Southern long-grain at $465 per ton.
U.S. long-grain rough rice prices remained at $245 per ton.
California medium-grain milled rice prices increased to $590 per ton, driven by strong U.S. sales.

Key Information

Rice Chart Gallery will be updated on April 17, 2017.
RCS-17D is approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board.
The next release is scheduled for May 12, 2017.
Planting surveys for the 2017/18 crop will be conducted in early June and released in the June 30 Acreage report.
Weather conditions in the U.S. have been favorable in some regions, particularly in southwest Louisiana.
Heavy rainfall in California has delayed planting and caused flooding.
Supply side revisions were minimal for the 2016/17 balance sheet, with no changes in supply estimates.
Global trade is expected to increase slightly, with China being a key driver of import growth.