20131003-大和证券-Asia_Pacific_Daily_32页_1mb
报告摘要
Asia Pacific Daily - 3 October 2013
Core Content Summary
The document provides a detailed analysis of various financial and market developments in the Asia Pacific region, focusing on company updates, macroeconomic research, and investment recommendations. It also includes insights on the Euro area and related financial instruments.
Major Changes
-
Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YZJSGD SP):
- Analyst: Benjamin Lim
- Rating: Upgraded from Underperform to Hold
- Target Price: Raised from SGD 0.850 to SGD 1.120
- Key Update: Confirmed 17 new shipbuilding contracts worth USD871 million, bringing total YTD order wins to USD2.1 billion, exceeding prior expectations.
- Impact: This demonstrates stronger-than-expected order momentum, with new contracts for 12 bulk carriers and 5 containerships. The company is expanding into larger vessel projects, indicating growing customer confidence.
-
OfficeMate Pcl (OFM TB):
- Analyst: Siriporn Arunothai
- Rating: Changed from Buy to Hold
- Target Price: Reduced by 67.8% to Bt38.00
- Key Update: Change of plan affecting the target price.
Macro Research
-
Euro Wrap-Up:
- Analyst: Chris Scicluna
- Overview: The ECB's Governing Council meeting provided little new information. Draghi confirmed the euro area economy is progressing as expected, with continued economic recovery anticipated but with downside risks still present.
- Inflation: Expected to remain low in the near term, with the ECB anticipating a balanced outlook in the medium term.
- Policy: No changes to the assessment of the economic outlook. A refi rate cut is more likely than a new LTRO in the short term if inflation weakens further.
-
ECB Policy Insights:
- The ECB's forward guidance remains unchanged, with policy rates expected to stay low.
- The case for a new LTRO is weak due to low money market rates and declining excess liquidity.
Other Research
-
China Cement and Steel Weekly:
- Analyst: Felix Lam
- Focus: Post-holiday demand expectations.
-
CITIC Securities (6030 HK):
- Analyst: Leon Qi
- Rating: Outperform
- Key Point: Trading gains and new REIT activity.
-
China Resources Cement Holdings (13 HK):
- Analyst: Felix Lam
- Rating: Buy
- Key Point: Fujian is the next key market after South China.
-
Coal India (COAL IN):
- Analyst: Saurabh Mehta
- Rating: Buy
- Key Point: September volumes are back on track.
-
CapitaMall Trust (CT SP):
- Analyst: David Lum
- Rating: Outperform
- Key Point: On course for performance.
Memo - Quick Updates
-
Fubon Financial (2881 TT):
- Analyst: Jerry Yang
- Key Point: Management changes, but investment thesis remains unchanged.
-
Daiwa's Banner Products:
- Key Point: Analysts' company visits.
-
Economic Calendar - October 2013:
- Key Point: Includes various events and company roadshows.
-
Rating and Target-Price Information:
- Recently Published Reports: Available for reference.
-
Company Roadshows:
- A list of upcoming roadshows with dates, companies, events, and venues.
Daiwa Asian Events
- A list of upcoming Daiwa events in the Asia Pacific region, including conferences and corporate days in various locations.
Regional Indices
| Market | 1D % | 1M % | YTD % | 13E % | 14E % | 13E | 14E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TPX | -1.5 | 5.1 | 36.7 | 62.0 | 9.5 | 14.6 | 13.4 |
| HSCEI | 0.2 | 5.2 | -9.6 | 9.0 | 8.4 | 7.0 | 6.4 |
| HSI | 0.5 | 5.8 | 1.4 | 10.1 | 7.0 | 10.9 | 10.2 |
| KOSPI | 0.0 | 3.9 | 0.1 | 17.9 | 22.9 | 11.0 | 8.9 |
| TWSE | 0.4 | 2.2 | 6.7 | 35.2 | 11.8 | 15.6 | 14.0 |
| SENSEX* | 0.7 | 3.3 | 0.5 | 8.3 | 17.0 | 15.3 | 13.0 |
| FSSTI | -0.9 | 3.2 | -0.5 | -2.1 | 9.4 | 14.8 | 13.5 |
| FBMKLCI* | 0.1 | 3.1 | 4.8 | -1.2 | 9.2 | 16.5 | 15.1 |
| SET* | 0.1 | 6.4 | 1.2 | 13.9 | 13.8 | 13.3 | 11.7 |
| PCOMP* | 2.7 | 5.0 | 9.5 | 8.4 | 7.8 | 19.7 | 18.3 |
| JCI* | 1.0 | 7.0 | 1.6 | 11.0 | 14.8 | 15.4 | 13.4 |
| AS51 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 12.2 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 15.1 | 13.8 |
*Valuation based on MSCI Universe
**MSCI index priced as of 1 Oct
Financial Summary (YZJ)
Key Assumptions (USDm)
| Year to 31 Dec | 2013E | 2014E | 2015E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue change | -1.9 | 15.2 | 24.3 |
| Net profit change | -0.7 | 12.4 | 20.5 |
| Core EPS change | -0.7 | 12.4 | 20.5 |
Financial Summary (CNY)
| Year to 31 Dec | 2013E | 2014E | 2015E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (m) | 13,713 | 11,891 | 11,140 |
| Operating profit (m) | 3,219 | 2,670 | 2,858 |
| Net profit (m) | 2,709 | 2,368 | 2,528 |
| Core EPS (FD) | 0.707 | 0.618 | 0.660 |
| EPS change (%) | -23.1 | -12.6 | 6.7 |
| Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) | -3.6 | 7.7 | n.a. |
| PER (x) | 7.8 | 9.0 | 8.4 |
| Dividend yield (%) | 3.8 | 3.9 | 4.2 |
| DPS | 0.212 | 0.216 | 0.231 |
| PBR (x) | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| EV/EBITDA (x) | 5.8 | 6.6 | 5.9 |
| ROE (%) | 16.5 | 13.0 | 12.8 |
Key Ratios (CNY)
| Year to 31 Dec | 2013E | 2014E | 2015E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales (YoY) | -7.3 | -13.3 | -6.3 |
| EBITDA (YoY) | -28.0 | -15.7 | 5.4 |
| Operating profit (YoY) | -30.4 | -17.1 | 7.1 |
| Net profit (YoY) | -23.1 | -12.6 | 6.7 |
| Core EPS (YoY) | -23.1 | -12.6 | 6.7 |
| Gross-profit margin | 26.0 | 25.8 | 28.8 |
| EBITDA margin | 25.5 | 24.8 | 27.9 |
| Operating-profit margin | 23.5 | 22.5 | 25.7 |
| Net profit margin | 19.8 | 19.9 | 22.7 |
| ROAE | 16.5 | 13.0 | 12.8 |
| ROAA | 8.0 | 6.9 | 7.3 |
| ROCE | 13.7 | 11.2 | 11.5 |
| ROIC | 15.3 | 12.8 | 13.1 |
| Net debt to equity | net cash | net cash | net cash |
| Effective tax rate | 19.0 | 19.0 | 19.0 |
| Accounts receivable (days) | 18.1 | 14.5 | 12.8 |
| Current ratio (x) | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.3 |
| Net interest cover (x) | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| Net dividend payout | 30.0 | 35.0 | 35.0 |
| Free cash flow yield | 15.6 | 6.6 | 7.4 |
Company Profile: Yangzijiang Shipbuilding
- Core Companies: Jiangsu Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Ltd and Jiangsu New Yangzi Shipbuilding Ltd
- Expertise: Advanced shipbuilding expertise and modern facilities
- Production: Rational and efficient production procedures and technologies
- Recent Development: Secured USD2.1bn in orders for 2013, with 17 new contracts announced on 1 October 2013
Share Price Performance
- 12-month range: 0.805–1.165 SGD
- Market Cap (USD bn): 3.47
- 3m avg daily turnover (USD m): 13.23
- Shares outstanding (m): 3,832
- Major shareholder: Newyard Worldwide Holdings (26.1%)
Summary of Key Points
- Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YZJ) has seen a strong order momentum with new contracts totaling USD871 million, surpassing prior expectations.
- The company's target price was raised to SGD1.12, and the rating upgraded to Hold.
- The improved order book and visibility into 2015-16 revenue are expected to lead to higher EPS forecasts.
- The Euro area is showing signs of recovery in line with ECB expectations, with no changes to monetary policy.
- The ECB is likely to maintain low interest rates and may consider a refi rate cut if inflation weakens further.
- A range of company events and roadshows are scheduled for October 2013, including NDRs and luncheons.
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