20150429-大和证券-Asia_Pacific_Daily_90页_5mb

Asia Pacific Daily Summary - 29 April 2015

Core Content

The Asia Pacific Daily report provides a comprehensive overview of stock performance, analyst recommendations, and market trends for the region. It includes updates on company earnings, target prices, and upcoming events such as roadshows and conferences.

Key Companies and Analyst Recommendations

• China International Marine Containers (2039 HK)

  • Analyst: Kelvin Lau
  • Rating: Buy → Outperform
  • Target Price: HKD25.00 (up 8.7% from HKD23.00)
  • Key Drivers: Container manufacturing, Qianhai development
  • Impact: 1Q15 recurring net profit up 319% YoY, driven by container manufacturing and offshore engineering. Sales of dry and reefer containers increased 81% and 16% YoY respectively. However, road transportation vehicle sales declined 16% YoY due to weak domestic demand.
  • Recommendation: Revised target price due to optimistic outlook on container manufacturing, but downgraded to Outperform due to recent strong share-price rally. Key risks include weaker-than-expected sales volumes and delays in Qianhai development.

• Hyundai Heavy Industries (009540 KS)

  • Analyst: Sung Yop Chung
  • Rating: Buy → Underperform
  • Target Price: KRW130,000 (down 10.3% from previous target)
  • Impact: Management advised to take profits, suggesting a potential slowdown in the sector.

• Lotte Chemical (011170 KS)

  • Analyst: Jun Yong Bang
  • Rating: Underperform → Hold
  • Target Price: KRW270,000 (up 125% from previous target)
  • Impact: Despite solid 1H15 forecasts, concerns remain about future performance.

• Samsung Heavy Industries (010140 KS)

  • Analyst: Sung Yop Chung
  • Rating: Underperform → Sell
  • Target Price: KRW16,000 (down 5.9% from previous target)
  • Impact: Drilling in choppy waters, indicating potential challenges in the sector.

• Haitong Securities (6837 HK)

  • Analyst: Leon Qi
  • Rating: Outperform
  • Target Price: HKD29.00 (up 26.1% from previous target)
  • Impact: Net capital is not an issue now, suggesting a positive outlook.

• China Galaxy Securities (6881 HK)

  • Analyst: Leon Qi
  • Rating: Hold
  • Target Price: HKD12.50 (up 35.9% from previous target)
  • Impact: Green light on placement, indicating potential for growth.

• COSCO Pacific (1199 HK)

  • Analyst: Kelvin Lau
  • Rating: Outperform
  • Target Price: HKD14.30 (up 27.0% from previous target)
  • Impact: On track for expanding overseas, with positive performance expected.

Other Research Highlights

• China Life Insurance (2628 HK)

  • Analyst: Leon Qi
  • Rating: Buy
  • Impact: Life turnaround story continues, with strong earnings expectations.

• LG Uplus (032640 KS)

  • Analyst: Thomas Y. Kwon
  • Rating: Hold
  • Impact: Affected by a tough environment, with stable performance expected.

• HTC Corp (2498 TT)

  • Analyst: Kylie Huang
  • Rating: Hold
  • Impact: Still a long way to recovery, with continued challenges.

• Realtek Semiconductor (2379 TT)

  • Analyst: Rick Hsu
  • Rating: Underperform
  • Impact: Low trajectory, with limited growth prospects.

• ICICI Bank (ICICIBC IN)

  • Analyst: Punit Srivastava
  • Rating: Buy
  • Impact: Fresh NPLs rise in 4Q, but asset quality stress is expected to ease in FY16.

• Tenaga (TNB MK)

  • Analyst: Lim Tee Yang
  • Rating: Buy
  • Impact: Steady quarter, with positive performance expected.

• MMHE (MMHE MK)

  • Analyst: Isaac Chow
  • Rating: Sell
  • Impact: Weaker earnings YoY, maintaining SELL rating.

• Globetronics (GTB MK)

  • Analyst: Kevin Low
  • Rating: Buy
  • Impact: Consistent earnings delivery, indicating stability.

Company Roadshows

• 27-29 Apr: REXLot Holdings (555 HK) - NDR in EU
• 27-30 Apr: CT Environment (1363 HK) - NDR in US
• 30 Apr: Paradise Entertainment (1180 HK) - NDR in EU
• 4-5 May: Hyundai Mobis (012330 KS) - NDR in SG
• 5-11 May: Paradise Entertainment (1180 HK) - NDR in US
• 6-8 May: Hyundai Mobis (012330 KS) - NDR in HK
• 7 May: Canvest Environmental (1381 HK) - NDR and Group Luncheon in HK and SG
• 8 May: Brambles Ltd (BXB AU) - NDR in Tokyo
• 11-12 May: Lippo Karawach (LPKR IJ) and Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN IJ) - NDR in US and SG
• 11-15 May: Hyundai Motor Company (005380 KS) - NDR in US
• 12 May: Hang Lung Properties (101 HK) - NDR in US
• 13 May: Vard Hondings Ltd (VARD SP) - Group Luncheon in SG

Daiwa Asian Events

• 11-12 May: Daiwa Australia REIT Day 2015 in Tokyo
• 21-22 May: Daiwa ASEAN Conference: Thailand Corporate Day 2015 in Tokyo
• 26-27 May: Daiwa Investment Conference New York 2015 in New York
• 28 May: Pan-Asia Corporate Day in Chicago
• 29 May: Daiwa Investment Conference San Francisco 2015 in San Francisco
• 1-2 Jun: Daiwa Investment Conference London 2015 in London

Regional Indices Performance

*Valuation based on MSCI Universe
**MSCI index priced as of 27 Apr

Financial Summary (China International Marine Containers)

Financial Highlights

• Revenue (USDm): 77,535 (2015E), 87,729 (2016E), 99,466 (2017E)
• Operating Profit (USDm): 4,907 (2015E), 5,422 (2016E), 6,049 (2017E)
• Net Profit (USDm): 2,846 (2015E), 3,186 (2016E), 3,674 (2017E)
• Core EPS (fully-diluted): 1.067 (2015E), 1.195 (2016E), 1.378 (2017E)
• EPS Change (%): 18.2 (2015E), 11.9 (2016E), 15.3 (2017E)
• Daiwa vs Consensus EPS (%): 6.2 (2015E), 2.3 (2016E), 2.6 (2017E)
• PER: 16.6 (2015E), 14.8 (2016E)
• Dividend Yield (%): 2.0 (2015E), 2.2 (2016E)
• DPS: 0.352 (2015E), 0.394 (2016E), 0.455 (2017E)
• PBR: 1.8 (2015E), 1.6 (2016E)
• EV/EBITDA: 12.2 (2015E), 10.9 (2016E), 9.9 (2017E)
• ROE (%): 11.8 (2015E), 11.5 (2016E)

Key Assumptions

• Container Sales Volume Growth: 10.3 (2015E), 10.0 (2016E), 9.7 (2017E)
• Container ASP Growth: 1.7 (2015E), 1.0 (2016E), -0.2 (2017E)
• Transportation Equipment Volume Growth: 0.0 (2015E), 3.0 (2016E), 5.0 (2017E)
• Transportation Equipment ASP Growth: -1.0 (2015E), 2.0 (2016E), 2.0 (2017E)

Profit and Loss (CNYm)

• Container Manufacturing Revenue: 25,903 (2015E), 28,507 (2016E), 31,173 (2017E)
• Transportation Equipment Revenue: 13,256 (2015E), 13,927 (2016E), 14,916 (2017E)
• Other Revenue: 38,376 (2015E), 45,295 (2016E), 53,378 (2017E)
• Total Revenue: 77,535 (2015E), 87,729 (2016E), 99,466 (2017E)
• Net Profit (Adjusted): 2,846 (2015E), 3,186 (2016E), 3,674 (2017E)

Cash Flow (CNYm)

• Cash Flow from Operations: 3,537 (2015E), 3,591 (2016E), 3,847 (2017E)
• Capex: -8,000 (2015E), -5,000 (2016E), -5,000 (2017E)
• Net Debt/(Cash): 29,816 (2015E), 27,822 (2016E), 25,612 (2017E)
• EV: 82,641 (2015E), 81,362 (2016E), 79,976 (2017E)
• BVPS (CNY): 9.666 (2015E), 11.128 (2016E), 12.815 (2017E)

Key Ratios (%)

• Sales (YoY): 10.7 (2015E), 13.1 (2016E), 13.4 (2017E)
• EBITDA (YoY): 22.0 (2015E), 9.8 (2016E), 8.9 (2017E)
• Operating Profit (YoY): 30.6 (2015E), 10.5 (2016E), 11.6 (2017E)
• Net Profit (YoY): 18.2 (2015E), 11.9 (2016E), 15.3 (2017E)
• Gross-Profit Margin: 16.9 (2015E), 16.8 (2016E), 16.7 (2017E)
• EBITDA Margin: 8.8 (2015E), 8.5 (2016E), 8.2 (2017E)
• Operating-Profit Margin: 6.3 (2015E), 6.2 (2016E), 6.1 (2017E)
• Net Profit Margin: 3.7 (2015E), 3.6 (2016E), 3.7 (2017E)
• ROAE: 11.8 (2015E), 11.5 (2016E), 11.5 (2017E)
• ROAA: 3.1 (2015E), 3.3 (2016E), 3.4 (2017E)
• ROCE: 8.1 (2015E), 8.6 (2016E), 8.9 (2017E)
• ROIC: 7.1 (2015E), 7.4 (2016E), 7.9 (2017E)

Summary of Peer Comparison

Summary of Key Points

• China International Marine Containers (CIMC) showed strong performance in 1Q15 with a 319% YoY increase in recurring net profit.
• The container manufacturing and Qianhai development are expected to be key drivers for CIMC in 2015.
• The target price for CIMC was raised to HKD25.00, but the stock was downgraded to Outperform due to recent market sentiment.
• Hyundai Heavy Industries and Samsung Heavy Industries had their ratings downgraded to Underperform and Sell, respectively, indicating potential market challenges.
• Lotte Chemical was upgraded from Underperform to Hold with a significant increase in target price.
• Haitong Securities and China Galaxy Securities received Outperform and Hold ratings, respectively, with target price increases.
• COSCO Pacific was rated Outperform with a target price increase, showing potential for overseas expansion.
• The report includes details on upcoming roadshows and conferences in various regions, providing insights into company presentations and market engagement.
• Regional indices showed mixed performance with varying EPS growth and PER levels.
• Financial summaries and key ratios provide a detailed outlook on the company's performance and valuation.