20131004-大和证券-Asia_Pacific_Daily_32页_2mb
报告摘要
Asia Pacific Daily Summary - 4 October 2013
Core Content
The Asia Pacific Daily report from Daiwa on 4 October 2013 outlines key market outlooks and investment recommendations for the region, with a particular focus on Taiwan, the US, and the Euro area. It includes economic forecasts, technical analysis, and insights on specific companies and sectors.
Taiwan Strategy
Key Points
- Taiex Index Target Raised: The six-month target for the Taiex index is raised to 8,800 from 8,200.
- GDP Growth Forecasted: Daiwa has lifted its GDP growth forecasts for Taiwan to 2.3% YoY for 2013 and 3.0% YoY for 2014.
- Recommended Sectors: The report highlights focus on China smartphone plays, iPhone supply chain beneficiaries, healthcare, and financials.
Top Fundamental Picks
| BBG Code | Company | Rating | Target Price (TWD) | Share Price (TWD) | Upside/Downside (%) | Market Cap (USD bn) | 2013E PER | 2014E PER | 2013E EPS | 2014E EPS | Dividend Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2308 TT | Delta Electronics | 2 | 155.0 | 143.5 | 8.0 | 11.6 | 28.9 | 18.2 | 10.6 | 12.3 | 3.0 |
| 2317 TT | Hon Hai Precision | 1 | 89.0 | 75.0 | 18.7 | 32.8 | 10.1 | 9.0 | 7.4 | 8.3 | 2.2 |
| 2454 TT | Mediatek | 1 | 430.0 | 368.0 | 16.8 | 16.6 | 20.7 | 16.1 | 17.7 | 22.9 | 2.0 |
| 2882 TT | Cathay Financial | 1 | 58.0 | 42.3 | 37.1 | 15.8 | 13.7 | 13.2 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 2.4 |
| 2886 TT | Mega Financial | 1 | 28.0 | 23.95 | 16.9 | 9.1 | 11.3 | 10.4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 6.1 |
| 4105 TT | TTY Biopharm | 1 | 120.0 | 107.5 | 11.6 | 0.8 | 28.9 | 18.2 | 3.7 | 5.9 | 0.0 |
| 4938 TT | Pegatron | 1 | 62.0 | 40.9 | 51.8 | 3.1 | 9.1 | 6.9 | 4.5 | 6.0 | 3.9 |
| 6121 TT | Simplo Technology | 2 | 164.0 | 144.0 | 13.9 | 1.5 | 13.5 | 11.7 | 10.6 | 12.3 | 3.0 |
Daiwa Investment Conference
- Date: 19–22 November 2013
- Location: Island Shangri-La, Hong Kong
- Key Topics: Macro research, Pan-Asia Auto, Hang Lung Properties, Jasmine International, Jasmine International Pcl, etc.
Company Roadshows
| Date | Company | Event | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7–8 Oct | Mc Group (MC TB) | NDR | SG |
| 7–10 Oct | Hang Lung Properties (101 HK) | NDR | US |
| 8 Oct | Macau Legend (1680 HK) | Lunceon | HK |
| 8 Oct | Macau Legend (1680 HK) | Video Con. | SG |
| 8 Oct | Macau Legend (1680 HK) | Video Con. | Tokyo |
| 9 Oct | CR Cement (1313 HK) | NDR | HK |
| 9 Oct | Luk Fook Holdings (590 HK) | Lunceon | HK |
| 9 Oct | Luk Fook Holdings (590 HK) | Video Con. | SG |
| 14–17 Oct | Far Eastone (4904 TT) | NDR | US |
| 14–18 Oct | Texhong Textile Group (2678 HK) | NDR | EU |
| 17 Oct | Ju Teng (3336 HK) | Lunceon | HK |
| 17 Oct | Ju Teng (3336 HK) | Video Con. | SG |
Daiwa Asian Events
| Date | Event | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 10-Oct | Daiwa ASEAN Conference - Philippines Corporate Day 2013 | SG |
| 16-Oct | KOSDAQ Global Investors Conference 2013 | HK |
| 18-Oct | KOSDAQ Global Investors Conference 2013 | SG |
| 21–22 Oct | Daiwa ASEAN Conference - Best of Indonesia 2013 | Tokyo |
| 23-Oct | Daiwa ASEAN Conference - Best of Indonesia 2013 | Toronto |
| 19–22 Nov | Daiwa Investment Conference Hong Kong 2013 | HK |
Market Dynamics and Indices
| Market | Performance Chg (1D) | Performance Chg (1M) | YTD Chg | EPS Growth (13E) | EPS Growth (14E) | PER (13E) | PER (14E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TPX | -0.1% | 2.2% | 36.5% | 64.3% | 9.4% | 15.0 | 13.7 |
| HSCEI | 1.8% | 2.6% | -8.1% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 6.9 | 6.4 |
| HSI | 1.0% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 10.3% | 6.9% | 10.9 | 10.2 |
| KOSPI | 0.0% | 3.4% | 0.1% | 16.6% | 23.1% | 11.0 | 9.0 |
| TWSE | 1.7% | 3.3% | 8.6% | 35.5% | 11.5% | 15.7 | 14.0 |
| SENSEX* | 2.0% | 5.4% | 2.4% | 8.3% | 17.0% | 15.4** | 13.2** |
| FSSTI | -0.2% | 2.9% | -0.7% | -2.1% | 9.4% | 14.9 | 13.7 |
*Valuation based on MSCI Universe
**MSCI index priced as of 2 Oct
US Market Outlook
- Technical Tips: Eiji Kinouchi suggests a focus on individual sectors and exit opportunities for US shares in late October.
- Political Deadlock: The US government shutdown is expected to impact September's labor market data, but the Congress is likely to reach a debt ceiling agreement by mid-October, leading to a rebound in late October.
- Economic Data: November will bring US economic data, with caution advised due to potential negative sentiment indicators.
Euro Area Outlook
- Composite PMI: The euro area composite PMI was revised to a 27-month high of 52.2, indicating continued growth in Q3.
- UK Services Sector: The UK services PMI remained strong at 60.5, suggesting robust GDP growth.
- German Growth: German services PMI was revised down slightly, but the composite PMI showed a 27-month high, with growth expected to moderate from Q2's 0.7% to about 0.3% in Q3.
Hang Lung Properties (101 HK)
- Target Price: HKD34.40 (unchanged)
- Upside: 31.8%
- Recent Performance: Share price was HKD26.10 on 3 Oct.
- Rental Income Growth: Sustained growth is expected, with Centre 66 and Parc 66 showing strong performance.
- Property Sales: Property sales profits are now expected to be spread over 2013–2017 instead of 2013–2015, leading to a reduction in net profit forecasts.
- Valuation: The company is valued mainly on its recurrent earnings and outlook, with a low all-in cost for remaining units in Long Beach and HarbourSide.
Financial Summary (HKD)
| Year to 31 Dec | 13E | 14E | 15E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (m) | 9,584 | 11,065 | 12,685 |
| Operating Profit (m) | 6,807 | 8,245 | 9,414 |
| Net Profit (m) | 4,780 | 5,840 | 6,700 |
| Core EPS (FD) | 1.068 | 1.304 | 1.497 |
| EPS Change (%) | -22.6 | +22.2 | +14.7 |
| Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) | +16.9 | +1.4 | -3.1 |
| PER (x) | 24.4 | 20.0 | 17.4 |
| Dividend Yield (%) | 3.1 | 3.3 | 3.4 |
| DPS | 0.800 | 0.850 | 0.900 |
| PBR (x) | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| EV/EBITDA (x) | 18.2 | 15.4 | 13.8 |
| ROE (%) | 4.0 | 4.8 | 5.4 |
Conclusion
The report emphasizes the potential for the Taiwan market to outperform other Asian markets, with a focus on the smartphone, healthcare, and financials sectors. It also highlights the potential for US shares to rebound in late October and the continued growth in the Euro area and UK services sectors. Hang Lung Properties is recommended as a Buy, with a focus on its rental income growth and the restructuring of its property sales forecast.
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