20180423-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_29页_1mb

文档内容总结

核心内容概述

本文档主要涵盖了中国、香港、印尼、马来西亚、新加坡和泰国的市场分析，包括股票评级、公司更新、关键指标、财务数据和未来展望等内容。此外，文档还涉及了ZTE和Cathay Pacific Airways两家公司的详细分析，包括其面临的挑战、市场表现和财务状况。

主要观点与关键信息

ZTE Corporation (763 HK)

• US Trade Ban Impact: ZTE faces a seven-year US trade ban due to compliance issues, which could severely impact its telecom equipment business. Key components like high-end chips and software are sourced from US firms, and substitutes are not readily available.
• Handset Business: The handset business is particularly vulnerable as it relies on Google's Android OS. Without GMS certification, ZTE may lose overseas markets, and its gross margin is low at 14.6%.
• Financial Impact: The Denial Order could result in a 40% revenue drop, 30% gross profit decline, and 55% net profit reduction in 2018. ZTE's revenue from telecom equipment is 59% of total revenue, with a higher gross margin of 38.8%.
• Rating and Target Price: The BUY rating and target price are under review due to uncertainty around the trade ban's resolution and potential recovery in 5G roll-out.
• Stock Catalysts: Potential upside includes less severe sanctions and faster 5G deployment. Downside risks include strict enforcement of the denial order and delayed 5G progress.
• Financial Metrics:
  • EPS: Expected to increase from 80.4 (2017) to 134.7 (2020F).
  • PE Ratio: Expected to decrease from 25.5 (2017) to 15.2 (2020F).
  • Net Debt to Equity: Expected to increase from -20.9% (2018F) to -23.1% (2020F).
  • Cash Flow: Net cash inflow is projected to increase from 525.8 (2017) to 5,809.0 (2020F).

Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)

• March Performance: Strong pax and cargo traffic in March, partly due to an earlier Easter holiday. However, cargo demand post CNY was weaker than expected.
• Yield Improvement: Pax yields are expected to improve by 1.5% yoy in 2018.
• Stock Rating: HOLD rating is maintained with a lower target price of HK$12.40.
• Risks: Potential slowdown in semiconductor shipments and US-China trade war could impact cargo growth. The stock price has declined by 15.9% from recent highs.
• Financial Metrics:
  • Net Profit: Expected to increase from -1,259 (2017) to 3,025 (2020F).
  • EPS: Expected to increase from -32.0 (2017) to 76.9 (2020F).
  • EV/EBITDA: Expected to decrease from 16.5 (2017) to 8.6 (2020F).
  • Net Debt to Equity: Expected to rise from 97.1% (2017) to 103.5% (2018F).

其他市场动态

Indonesia

• Cement Sector: Expected weak 1Q18 results despite in-line volume growth.

Malaysia

• Hartalega Holdings (HART MK): Sell rating with a target price of RM4.02. The 20% share price gain has already priced in potential inclusion into FBMKLCl.

Singapore

• CapitaLand Mall Trust (CT SP): Hold rating with a target price of S$2.13. 1Q18 shows signs of retail stabilization.
• Venture Corporation (VMS SP): Buy rating with a target price of S$30.60. The outlook remains largely unchanged.

Thailand

• Bangkok Bank (BBL TB): Buy rating with a target price of Bt246.00. 1Q18 shows healthy revenue growth.
• Kasikorn Bank (KBANK TB): Buy rating with a target price of Bt227.00. Earnings rose 6% yoy due to lower provisions, but top-line growth is weak.
• Diamond Building Products (DRT TB): Buy rating with a target price of Bt8.00. Earnings growth is expected to resume after a moderate 1Q18.

关键指数表现

主要财务假设

重要企业活动

• Analyst Marketing Events:
  • Greater China Strategy and Outlook (Bangkok, 23–24 Apr)
  • Thai Property and Strategy (Singapore & Kuala Lumpur, 23–25 Apr)
  • Roadshow with China Education Group (Taipei, 23–24 Apr)
  • Roadshow with BBI Life Sciences (Hong Kong, 25–26 Apr)
  • Group Luncheon with TTW & Eastern Water Resources (Bangkok, 25 Apr)
  • Group Meeting with Tuan Sing Holdings (Singapore, 27 Apr)
  • Group Luncheon with Reach Energy (Kuala Lumpur, 3 May)
  • Group Luncheon with C-Mer Eye Care (Hong Kong, 3 May)
  • Roadshow with PC Partner Group (Hong Kong, 7 May)
  • Roadshow with Singtel (Toronto, 24 May)
  • Roadshow with Top Glove (Toronto & Montreal, 24–25 May)
  • Roadshow with Singapore Post (Toronto, 25 May)

重点公司推荐（TOP PICKS）

总结

• ZTE faces a severe impact from the US trade ban, especially in its telecom equipment and handset businesses.
• Cathay Pacific Airways reported strong March performance but faces risks from trade tensions and semiconductor demand slowdown.
• Key markets show mixed performance with some expected recovery and others facing challenges.
• Financial metrics indicate improvements in the long term for ZTE and Cathay Pacific, but short-term risks are significant.
• Corporate events are planned in the coming weeks, focusing on strategy updates and investment roadshows.