20170324-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_29页_1mb
报告摘要
Regional Morning Notes Summary - 24 March 2017
Core Content Overview
This document provides a summary of company results, key indices, top picks, and corporate events for the Asia-Pacific region, focusing on China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. It includes financial performance highlights, earnings forecasts, and analyst recommendations for selected companies, particularly Li Ning Company and TUL.
Main Points by Region
China
- Li Ning Company (2331 HK):
- 2016 results were below market expectations due to slower margin expansion.
- However, the company is expected to recover in the long term, driven by strong e-commerce growth, store additions, and margin improvement.
- The target price was revised down from HK$6.10 to HK$5.70, with an upside of +21.3%.
- Key financial highlights:
- Sales increased by 13.1% yoy to Rmb8,015m.
- Gross margin expanded by 1.2ppt to 46.2%.
- Net profit surged by 4,395.5% yoy to Rmb643m, primarily due to a one-off gain.
- Core net profit rebounded to Rmb256m, beating the analyst's estimate by 9% but below consensus.
- Management expects net margin to improve to ~5.5% in 2017 and ~9% by 2019.
- EBITDA margin is expected to rise from 7.2% in 2016 to 9.5% in 2017F.
- The company is maintaining a BUY recommendation.
Hong Kong
- Sector Highlights:
- Gaming is a key focus area.
- Sustainability is emphasized as a critical factor for the sector.
Indonesia
- Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE IJ):
- 4Q16 net income increased by 61.6% yoy, driven by land sales to a joint venture with Mitsubishi.
- BUY recommendation with a target price of Rp2,290.
Malaysia
- BNM 2016 Annual Report:
- Central bank expects slightly stronger growth in 2017 due to commodity-related price increases.
- 1H17 is viewed as robust, with the FBMKLCI expected to peak at 1,750-1,800.
- Gamuda (GAM MK):
- 2QFY17 earnings showed positive growth momentum.
- BUY recommendation with a target price of RM5.55.
Singapore
- Sembcorp Industries (SCI SP):
- Modi's election victory could accelerate PPA awards, which may impact the company's performance.
- BUY recommendation with a target price of S$3.78.
Thailand
- Amata Corporation (AMATA TB):
- Clear signs of recovery are emerging.
- Earnings forecasts have been upgraded.
- BUY recommendation with a target price of Bt21.00.
Key Indices
| Index | Prev Close | 1D % | 1W % | 1M % | YTD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJIA | 20656.6 | 0.0 | -1.3 | -0.8 | 4.5 |
| S&P 500 | 2346.0 | 0.1 | -1.5 | -0.9 | 4.8 |
| FTSE 100 | 7340.7 | 0.2 | -1.0 | 1.3 | 2.8 |
| AS30 | 5754.0 | 0.4 | -1.3 | -0.6 | 0.6 |
| CSI 300 | 3462.0 | 0.3 | -0.6 | -0.3 | 4.6 |
| FSSTI | 3126.9 | 0.3 | -1.2 | 0.3 | 8.5 |
| HSCEI | 10487.5 | 0.3 | -0.4 | 0.7 | 11.6 |
| HSI | 24327.7 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 10.6 |
| JCI | 5563.8 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 3.3 | 5.0 |
| KLCI | 1747.0 | -0.1 | 0.6 | 2.9 | 6.4 |
| KOSPI | 2172.7 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 3.8 | 7.2 |
| Nikkei 225 | 19085.3 | 0.2 | -2.5 | -1.0 | -0.2 |
| SET | 1568.7 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.7 |
| TWSE | 9930.7 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 7.3 |
| BDI | 1190 | -0.8 | 1.5 | 39.0 | 23.8 |
| CPO (RM/ml) | 2987 | 0.4 | 0.3 | -2.6 | -6.6 |
| Brent Crude | 51 | -0.2 | -2.3 | -10.6 | -11.0 |
Top Picks (BUY)
| Company | Ticker | Current Price (lcy) | Target Price (lcy) | Pot. +/- (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ping An Insurance | 2318 HK | 43.65 | 47.00 | 7.7 |
| Bank Negara Indonesia | BBNI IJ | 6,900.00 | 7,100.00 | 2.9 |
| Indosat | ISAT IJ | 6,975.00 | 7,900.00 | 13.3 |
| Tiga Pilar | AISA IJ | 2,170.00 | 2,550.00 | 17.5 |
| Inari Amertron | INRI MK | 2.04 | 2.15 | 5.4 |
| V.S. Industries | VSI MK | 1.73 | 2.20 | 27.2 |
| OCBC | OCBC SP | 9.50 | 10.75 | 13.2 |
| Venture Corp | VMS SP | 11.16 | 12.40 | 11.1 |
| Bangkok Dusit | BDMS TB | 20.80 | 27.00 | 29.8 |
| Siam Cement | SCC TB | 532.00 | 600.00 | 12.8 |
Sell Recommendations
- Hartalega (HART MK):
- Current Price: HK$4.97
- Target Price: HK$3.67
- Pot. +/-: -26.2%
Key Assumptions
| Country/Region | 2015 | 2016F | 2017F |
|---|---|---|---|
| US | 2.6 | 1.7 | 2.7 |
| Euro Zone | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| Japan | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Singapore | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| Malaysia | 5.0 | 4.2 | 4.5 |
| Thailand | 2.8 | 3.2 | 3.3 |
| Indonesia | 4.8 | 5.0 | 5.2 |
| Hong Kong | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.8 |
| China | 6.9 | 6.7* | 6.3 |
| Actual | 2016 | 2017F | 2018F |
| Brent (Average) | 45 | 56 | 61 |
| CPO | 2,653 | 2,600 | 2,500 |
Company Results Highlights - Li Ning Company
- 2016 core net profit increased to Rmb256m, up from a net loss of Rmb43m in 2015.
- Net profit surged by over 40x to Rmb643m, mainly due to a one-off gain.
- Core net profit beat the analyst's estimate but fell short of the consensus.
- Gross margin expanded to 46.2%.
- EBITDA margin improved to 7.2%.
- Net margin increased to 8.0%.
- Management expects net margin to improve to ~5.5% in 2017 and ~9% by 2019.
- The company is targeting to add 300-450 new stores annually, with ~100 direct-operated.
Company Results Highlights - TUL (3933 HK)
- 2016 sales declined by 8.2% yoy to HK$7,063m.
- 2H16 core net profit was HK$37m, a significant improvement from a net loss of HK$51m in 1H16.
- The company expects 3rd-generation insulin to contribute 1.8% of 2017 net profit and 4.8% of 2018 net profit.
- Management guided that 6-APA ex-factory prices fell by ~8% due to production resumption.
- The target price was revised down to HK$5.90, with an upside of +14.8%.
- EBITDA margin is expected to improve from 7.2% in 2016 to 9.5% in 2017F.
Key Financial Metrics
| Metric | 2016 | 2017F | 2018F | 2019F |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net turnover (Rmbm) | 8,015 | 9,103 | 10,129 | 11,227 |
| EBITDA (Rmbm) | 579 | 862 | 1,189 | 1,512 |
| Operating profit (Rmbm) | 386 | 669 | 996 | 1,319 |
| Net profit (Rmbm) | 643 | 511 | 763 | 1,013 |
| Net profit (adj.) (Rmbm) | 256 | 511 | 763 | 1,013 |
| EPS (fen) | 11.5 | 23.1 | 34.4 | 45.7 |
| PE (x) | 37.9 | 18.9 | 12.7 | 9.6 |
| P/B (x) | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| EV/EBITDA (x) | 12.4 | 8.3 | 6.1 | 4.8 |
| Net margin (%) | 8.0 | 5.6 | 7.5 | 9.0 |
| Net debt/(cash) to equity (%) | -43.9 | -34.8 | -38.0 | -31.3 |
| Interest cover (x) | 5.4 | 53.9 | 74.3 | 94.5 |
| ROE (%) | 17.9 | 12.0 | 15.9 | 18.4 |
Corporate Events
- Analyst Marketing on Malaysia Technology Sector (24 Mar)
- Roadshow with China Traditional Chinese Medicine (24 Mar - 5 Apr)
- Roadshow with Meidong Auto Holdings (27 Mar)
- Group Luncheon with Yilai Coal Co (28 Mar)
- Luncheon with China Resources Gas (29 Mar)
- Roadshow with China Meidong (29 Mar - 30 Mar)
- Group Meeting with IGG Inc (30 Mar)
- Lunchon with O-Net Technologies (30 Mar)
- Group Meeting with Yihai Int'l Holdings (5 Apr)
- Roadshow with Ann Joo Resources (5 Apr)
- Roadshow with Sihuan Pharmaceutical Holdings (7 Apr - 13 Apr)
- Roadshow with BBI Life Science Corp (10 Apr)
- Lunchon with Dynagreen Environmental Protection Group (11 Apr)
- Roadshow with Universal Medical Financial and Technology (12 Apr)
- Roadshow with Singtel (26 May)
- Roadshow with PT Siloam Int'l Hospital (5 Jun)
Conclusion
The document outlines the performance and outlook of several key companies in the Asia-Pacific region, highlighting both challenges and opportunities. Li Ning Company and TUL are noted for their potential for recovery, with BUY recommendations maintained despite revised earnings forecasts. The overall sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with a focus on long-term growth through improved margins, e-commerce, and new business segments.
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