20160121-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_29页_1mb
报告摘要
Regional Morning Notes Summary
Core Content Overview
This document provides a comprehensive analysis of the stock market performance and corporate updates across several Asian regions, including China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. It includes insights on contracted sales, earnings forecasts, market indices, and investment recommendations.
Main Points by Region
China
- Property Sector:
- Listed developers reported a 16.9% yoy growth in contracted sales in 2015, with 103.2% of full-year targets locked in.
- 2016 contracted sales are expected to grow 10% yoy, supported by continued policy easing in low-tier cities.
- Market consolidation is expected to accelerate, driven by SOEs and large developers, with increased M&A activity.
- Top picks include large SOE names such as COLI, China Resources Land, and Poly Real Estate due to their strong financials and execution capabilities.
Indonesia
- Charoen Pokphand Indonesia (CPIN):
- Net profit is expected to grow 57% yoy in 2016, driven by DOC price recovery, stable margins in feed and processed chicken, and lower forex losses.
- The target price is raised to Rp3,600 from Rp3,300, with an upside of +23.9%.
- The company is the main beneficiary of the DOC price recovery, with a strong market position (34% market share).
- Key risks include rupiah volatility, higher production costs, and new entrants in the market.
Malaysia
- CapitaMalls Malaysia Trust (CMMT):
- Maintained as HOLD, with a target price of RM1.48.
- Expected to face a tougher environment in 4Q15.
- CIMB Group:
- Maintained as HOLD, with a target price of RM4.10.
- Overall growth outlook remains challenging due to oil price turmoil and potential further weakness in commodity prices.
Singapore
- CapitaLand Commercial Trust (CCT):
- Maintained as BUY, with a target price of S$1.79.
- Expected to have a comfortable expiry profile to cushion supply shocks.
Thailand
- Bank of Ayudhya (BAY):
- Maintained as HOLD, with a target price of Bt32.50.
- Net profit grew 32% yoy in 2015 due to strong top-line growth and consolidation.
- Bangkok Bank (BBL):
- Maintained as HOLD, with a target price of Bt165.00.
- Net profit fell 6% yoy due to higher provisions, but top-line growth was supported by strong non-interest income.
- IRPC:
- Maintained as BUY, with a target price of Bt5.70.
- Expected to have weak 4Q15 results.
- MCOT:
- Maintained as HOLD, with a target price of Bt11.00.
- Waiting for new funds to rejuvenate business operations.
Key Indices Performance
| Index | Previous Close | 1D % | 1W % | 1M % | YTD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJIA | 15766.7 | -1.6 | -4.5 | -8.0 | -9.5 |
| S&P 500 | 1859.3 | -1.2 | -4.1 | -7.3 | -9.0 |
| FTSE 100 | 5673.6 | -3.5 | -4.8 | -6.3 | -9.1 |
| AS30 | 4896.9 | -1.2 | -2.9 | -5.1 | -8.4 |
| CSI 300 | 3174.4 | -1.5 | 0.6 | -17.9 | -14.9 |
| FSSTI | 2559.8 | -3.0 | -5.1 | -10.0 | -11.2 |
| HSCEI | 8015.4 | -4.3 | -5.6 | -17.8 | -17.0 |
| HSI | 18886.3 | -3.8 | -5.3 | -13.3 | -13.8 |
| JCI | 4428.0 | -1.4 | -2.4 | -1.4 | -3.6 |
| KLCI | 1618.8 | -0.6 | -1.4 | -0.6 | -4.4 |
| KOSPI | 1845.5 | -2.3 | -3.7 | -6.9 | -5.9 |
| Nikkei 225 | 16416.2 | -3.7 | -7.3 | -13.2 | -13.8 |
| SET | 1249.0 | -1.3 | -2.3 | -1.2 | -3.0 |
| TWSE | 7699.1 | -2.0 | -1.6 | -7.0 | -7.7 |
| BDI | 358 | -1.4 | -9.1 | -24.9 | -25.1 |
| CPO (RM/mt) | 2280 | -0.1 | 2.4 | 5.9 | 3.6 |
| Brent Crude | 28 | -3.4 | -8.4 | -24.7 | -25.5 |
Top Picks
| Company | Ticker | Current Price | Target Price | Upside/Downside (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beijing Capital | 694 HK | 7.39 | 11.40 | +54.3 |
| ICBC | 1398 HK | 3.92 | 7.60 | +93.9 |
| Bank BJB | BJR IJ | 850.00 | 1,140.00 | +34.1 |
| City Developments | CIT SP | 6.93 | 10.86 | +56.7 |
| DBS | DBS SP | 14.09 | 22.34 | +58.6 |
| Kasikornbank | KBANK TB | 160.00 | 192.00 | +20.0 |
| PTT | PTT TB | 200.00 | 340.00 | +70.0 |
| SIA Engineering | SIE SP | 3.50 | 3.30 | -5.7 |
| UMWH Holdings | UMWH MK | 6.70 | 7.00 | +4.5 |
| Sembcorp Marine | SMM SP | 1.49 | 1.05 | -29.3 |
Key Assumptions
| Region | 2014 | 2015F | 2016F |
|---|---|---|---|
| US GDP (yoy) | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Euro Zone GDP | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Japan GDP | -0.1 | 0.5 | 1.0 |
| Singapore GDP | 2.9 | 2.0 | 2.7 |
| Malaysia GDP | 6.0 | 4.9 | 4.8 |
| Thailand GDP | 0.9 | 2.7 | 3.2 |
| Indonesia GDP | 5.0 | 4.8 | 5.4 |
| Hong Kong GDP | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| China GDP | 7.3 | 6.5 | 6.7 |
Conclusion
The report highlights the expected recovery in the poultry sector in Indonesia, particularly for Charoen Pokphand Indonesia (CPIN), due to improved DOC prices and stable margins. In China, the property sector is expected to see continued policy support, with a focus on large developers and SOEs. The market indices across the regions show a mixed performance, with some facing challenges due to oil price volatility and others showing resilience. Investment recommendations are based on financial performance, sector outlook, and market conditions.
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