20240724-大越期货-国债期货早报_8页_936kb

Market Update and Analysis

Fundamental Factors:
China reported a strong employment performance with 6.98 million new urban jobs added in the first six months of 2024. Insurance coverage reached new highs for basic old-age, unemployment, and work-related injury insurance by the end of June, indicating robust social security participation. Social insurance funds had total revenues of 41 trillion RMB and expenditures of 36 trillion RMB in the first six months, with a cumulative balance of 88 trillion RMB. The manufacturing PMI index remained in the contraction zone for two consecutive months, and inflation indicators showed a cooling trend.

Monetary Policy:
On July 23, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation for a fixed rate and quantity of 26.73 billion RMB at an interest rate of 1.70%. According to Wind data, 67.6 billion RMB worth of reverse repos matured that day. These moves reflect ongoing liquidity management efforts by the central bank.

Basis Spread Analysis:
All major futures contracts (TS, TF, T, TL) are in a state of "cash premium" against futures, indicating relatively favorable conditions for physical delivery. For example, TS and TF contracts showed cash flowing into the market despite minor changes in market participants' positioning trends.

Inventory:
The available deliverable bond inventories for TS and TF futures are at medium levels. Specific figures show common investor preferences toward certain bonds in influencing price movements.

Price Trends:
All major index futures (TS, TF, T) are trading above short-term moving averages, mostly with upward sloping trends, adding momentum to their price climbs.

Positioning:
Investors hold net long positions across the majority of key futures contracts, although there are varying degrees of buying momentum fatigue appearing on some technical indicators.

Outlook:
The expectation is for a supportive environment heading into the second half of the year, where fiscal and monetary policy activities are anticipated to be more aggressively deployed to stabilize growth. Current financial indicators, including M1 growth and total social financing, may face temporary delays, but core drivers of economic expansion remain intact. Monitoring changes in economic data and potential market fluctuations is key.

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