20240416-西南证券-深南电路-002916.SZ-2024年一季报点评_关注数通领域PCB增长与ABF项目释放节奏_10页_1mb

Deep South Circuit (002916) 2024 Q1 Report Summary

Key Financial Performance

• Revenue: 39.6 billion yuan, up 422% YoY.
• Net Profit: 3.8 billion yuan, up 839% YoY.
• Gross Margin: 25.2%, improved by 21pp YoY; Net margin 9.6%, improved by 22pp YoY.

Growth Drivers

• PCB business: Communication sector order recovery, pricing pullbacks, and product mix optimization (e.g., EGS servers and optical modules).
• BT Build-up (BT) boards: Demand pull from consumer electronics and storage sectors, driving稼动率 (capacity utilization) increases.无锡二厂 (Wuxi No. 2 Plant) is ramping up production, expected to contribute significant revenue. ABF Build-up boards project focuses on domestic substitution, with high potential.

Forward Outlook

• ABF Board Project: Capacity of up to 60+ billion yuan产值, contingent on GPU/CPU client validation.
• Earnings Forecast: EPS projected at 389 yuan (2024), 447 yuan (2025), 494 yuan (2026), with PE ratios of 23x, 20x, 18x. Three-year compound growth expected at 22%.
• Valuation: Target price set at 10,892 yuan based on 28x PE in 2024.

Investment Recommendation

• Rating: Buy (first coverage), supported by strong PCB fundamentals and IC封装基板 (interposer) growth trajectory.
• Basis: High-quality growth likely from capacity improvements and operational efficiency.

Risks

• Global economic recovery slower than expected.
• IC封装基板 yield ramp-up may not meet targets.