2022年全球恐怖主义指数报告（英）-IEP-2022-100页_6mb

Global Terrorism Index 2022 Summary

Core Content

The Global Terrorism Index (GTI) is an annual report published by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP) that measures the impact of terrorism globally. It uses data from Dragonfly's TerrorismTracker, which records terrorist incidents since January 2007. The GTI score is calculated using a five-year weighted average of deaths, injuries, and hostage-taking incidents.

Key Findings

Global Trends in Terrorism

• Terrorism deaths in 2021 fell by 1.2% to 7,142, the lowest since 2015.
• Terrorist attacks increased by 17% to 5,226, with the Sahel and South Asia being the most affected regions.
• 86 countries saw an improvement in terrorism impact, while 19 deteriorated.
• Russia and Eurasia had the largest regional improvement.
• Political terrorism has overtaken religious terrorism in the West, with the latter declining by 82% in 2021.

Regional Breakdown

• Afghanistan, Iraq, and Somalia remained the top three countries most impacted by terrorism.
• Myanmar had the largest increase in terrorism deaths, rising 20-fold from 24 to 521.
• Niger had the second-largest increase, rising by 129% to 588.
• Mozambique recorded the largest drop in terrorism deaths, with an 82% decrease.
• Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) had 48% of global terrorism deaths, with Boko Haram and other groups seeing significant declines due to counterinsurgency efforts.
• The Sahel region saw a 1,000% increase in terrorism deaths between 2007 and 2021.
• The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) had the lowest lethality rate in the last decade, with less than one person killed per attack.

Factors Influencing Terrorism

• Political instability and conflict are the primary drivers of terrorism.
• Terrorist attacks in conflict zones are six times deadlier than those in peaceful countries.
• Weapon use and militarization are strong indicators for terrorism in OECD countries, while weak institutions and societal fractionalization are key for less developed countries.
• Criminal activity and Islamic extremist groups are increasingly intertwined in the Sahel.

Main Points

• The GTI provides a comprehensive view of the global impact of terrorism, using open-source data and a systematic methodology.
• Technology is increasingly used by terrorist groups, including drones, GPS, and IEDs, which could lead to more sophisticated attacks in the future.
• Counter-terrorism efforts have shown some success in reducing attacks and deaths in certain regions, particularly in Nigeria and Mozambique.
• The Sahel is a growing concern due to the expansion of Islamic State affiliates, political instability, and weak governance.
• Terrorist groups tend to be more active in conflict zones, and once established, they are difficult to eliminate.

Key Countries and Groups

• Top 10 Most Impacted by Terrorism (2021):

  • Afghanistan
  • Iraq
  • Somalia
  • Burkina Faso
  • Syria
  • Nigeria
  • Mali
  • Niger
  • Myanmar
  • Pakistan

• Notable Terrorist Groups:

  • Islamic State (IS) remains the deadliest group globally.
  • JNIM is the fastest growing group, responsible for 351 deaths in 2021.
  • ISWA is the most lethal group in the Sahel, with an average of 15.2 deaths per attack in Niger.

Conclusion

The GTI 2022 highlights a global decline in terrorism-related deaths, but an increase in attacks, particularly in conflict zones and the Sahel. It underscores the importance of political stability, economic development, and counter-terrorism strategies in reducing the impact of terrorism. The report also emphasizes the evolving nature of terrorism, with technological advancements and ideological shifts playing a significant role.