2016全球恐怖主义指数报告（英文版）_108页-5mb

Global Terrorism Index 2016 Summary

Core Content

The Global Terrorism Index (GTI) 2016, produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), provides a comprehensive analysis of the impact of terrorism across 163 countries, representing 99.7% of the global population. It measures the effects of terrorism using a composite score from 0 to 10, where 0 indicates no impact and 10 indicates the highest measurable impact. The report is based on the Global Terrorism Database (GTD), a comprehensive dataset of over 150,000 terrorist incidents collected by the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START), a U.S. Department of Homeland Security Center of Excellence.

The GTI 2016 highlights a complex and evolving global terrorism landscape, where while some countries have seen improvements, others have experienced record levels of terrorism. The report also explores the economic, political, and social correlates of terrorism, and includes expert contributions on understanding and countering terrorism.

Main Findings

Global Impact of Terrorism (2015)

• Total terrorism deaths in 2015: 29,376
• First decline in deaths since 2010: A 10% decrease from 2014.
• Top five countries with the highest impact:
  • Iraq (9.96)
  • Afghanistan (9.444)
  • Nigeria (9.314)
  • Pakistan (8.613)
  • Syria (8.587)
• These five countries accounted for 72% of all terrorism deaths in 2015.

Improvement and Deterioration

• 76 countries improved their GTI scores in 2016.
• 53 countries deteriorated.
• Global GTI score declined by 6% due to record levels of terrorism in many countries.

Key Countries and Trends

• Iraq and Nigeria had the largest decreases in terrorism deaths (5,556 fewer deaths combined), representing a 32% reduction since 2014.
• OECD countries saw a 650% increase in terrorism deaths compared to 2014, with Turkey and France being the most affected.
• ISIL and its affiliates were active in 28 countries in 2015, up from 13 in 2014.
• 23 countries recorded their highest number of terrorism deaths in 2015, an increase of 6 from 2014.
• Boko Haram and ISIL expanded into neighboring countries, increasing their impact in Niger, Cameroon, and Chad.

Economic Impact of Terrorism

• Global economic cost of terrorism in 2015: US$89.6 billion, a 15% decrease from 2014.
• Iraq had the highest economic impact, with terrorism costs equivalent to 17% of its GDP.
• Tourism contributes twice as much to GDP in countries with no terrorist attacks compared to those with attacks.
• Peacebuilding and peacekeeping account for 2% of the economic impact of armed conflict and terrorism.

Terrorist Groups and Activity

• Four groups accounted for 74% of all terrorism deaths in 2015:
  • ISIL
  • Boko Haram
  • Taliban
  • Al-Qa'ida
• ISIL surpassed Boko Haram as the deadliest group in 2015, responsible for 6,141 deaths.
• Boko Haram saw an 18% reduction in deaths, but still caused 5,478 deaths.
• Taliban in Afghanistan saw a 29% increase in deaths, totaling 4,502.
• 274 known terrorist groups carried out attacks in 2015, with 103 not causing any deaths.

Correlates and Drivers of Terrorism

• 93% of all terrorist attacks (1989–2014) occurred in countries with high levels of state-sponsored terror, including extra-judicial killings, torture, and imprisonment without trial.
• Over 90% of all terrorist attacks occurred in countries engaged in violent conflict.
• Only 0.5% of attacks occurred in countries with no conflict or political terror.
• OECD countries are more affected by socio-economic factors such as youth unemployment, militarisation, criminality, access to weapons, and distrust in the electoral process.
• Developing countries are more influenced by conflict history, corruption, acceptance of others' rights, and group-based inequalities.

Key Trends (2000–2015)

• 2014 was the worst year for terrorism with 93 countries experiencing attacks and 32,765 deaths.
• ISIL foreign fighters generally have high education levels but low incomes, often joining due to feeling of exclusion in their home countries.
• Terrorist activity has become more transnational, with groups like ISIL expanding to Europe and other regions.

Expert Contributions

• Victoria Police Counter Terrorism Command highlights community-driven prevention as a key strategy.
• Dr Khalid Koser and Amy E. Cunningham discuss the private sector's role in preventing violent extremism.
• Dr Paolo Maggiolini and Dr Arturo Varvelli explore jihadist hotbeds and radicalization processes.
• Dr Christina Schori Liang examines the connection between criminal networks and terrorism.
• Sebastian von Einsiedel discusses the UN's efforts in conflict resolution to counter terrorism.

Conclusion

The GTI 2016 underscores that terrorism remains a highly concentrated form of violence, primarily affecting a small number of countries and groups. While there were declines in some regions, the report highlights new threats from transnational groups and local radicalization. The economic and social costs of terrorism are significant, especially in conflict zones, and the report emphasizes the need for policy responses that address both the root causes and tactical evolution of terrorism.