IEP-2018年全球和平系数（英文）-2019.1-100页_6mb

2018 Global Peace Index Summary

Core Content

The Global Peace Index (GPI) 2018 is the twelfth edition of the GPI, produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP), and ranks 163 independent states and territories based on their level of peacefulness. The report measures peace through three domains: Societal Safety and Security, Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict, and Militarisation. It also explores the economic impact of violence and the concept of Positive Peace, which refers to the attitudes, institutions, and structures that enable and sustain peaceful societies.

Main Findings

• Global Peace Deterioration: The global level of peace declined by 0.27% in 2017, marking the fourth consecutive year of decline. 92 countries saw a deterioration in peace, while 71 improved.
• Regional Overview:
  • Middle East and North Africa (MENA): Remained the least peaceful region for the past five years, with four of the ten least peaceful countries in the region.
  • Europe: The most peaceful region for the first time in the index's history, but experienced its third consecutive year of decline, driven by political instability, terrorism, and perceptions of criminality.
  • South Asia: Recorded the largest regional improvement in peacefulness, with Bhutan, Sri Lanka, India, and Nepal all improving.
  • South America: The largest overall deterioration in peacefulness, mainly due to increases in incarceration rates and terrorism impact.
  • Qatar: Experienced the largest single-country deterioration, dropping 26 places to 56th due to political and economic boycotts.
  • The Gambia: The single largest country improvement, moving 35 places up to 76th, attributed to political stability and improved regional relations.
• Long-Term Trends:
  • Since 2008, global peacefulness has deteriorated by 2.38%, with 85 countries deteriorating and 75 improving.
  • Over the past 100 years, the overall trend has been a decline in peacefulness, though the last decade has seen a greater deterioration.
  • Terrorism and internal conflict have been the main drivers of the decline in peacefulness over the past decade.
  • Militarisation has shown a positive long-term trend, with military expenditure as a percentage of GDP decreasing in 102 countries since 2008.

Economic Impact of Violence

• The economic impact of violence in 2017 was $14.76 trillion (PPP), equivalent to 12.4% of global GDP or $1,988 per person.
• This figure has increased by 16% since 2012, coinciding with the Syrian war and post-Arab Spring violence.
• Syria, Afghanistan, and Iraq had the highest economic costs of violence as a percentage of GDP at 68%, 63%, and 51%, respectively.
• Peaceful countries have shown three times higher per capita GDP growth over the past 70 years compared to less peaceful ones.
• Countries improving in peace recorded seven times higher per capita GDP growth over the last decade than those that deteriorated.
• If the least peaceful countries achieved the same GDP growth as the most peaceful, the global economy would be $13.87 trillion larger.

Positive Peace

• Positive Peace is defined as the attitudes, institutions, and structures that support and sustain peace.
• It is a leading indicator of future peacefulness, with deteriorations in Positive Peace statistically linked to declines in the GPI score.
• Positive Peace is also associated with stronger macroeconomic performance, including higher GDP growth, currency appreciation, and improved credit ratings.
• From 2005 to 2016, non-OECD countries that improved in Positive Peace had 1.45 percentage points higher GDP growth than those that deteriorated.
• Acceptance of the Rights of Others and Low Levels of Corruption are the most critical indicators that, when deteriorated, trigger declines in peacefulness.
• Over the last three years, Positive Peace indicators have slightly deteriorated, particularly in Europe and North America.

Key Indicators and Changes

• Ongoing Conflict had the largest deterioration in the GPI domains, with 42 countries experiencing a decline in the Political Terror Scale.
• Safety and Security also saw a significant decline, especially in Europe and the Middle East, with Sweden and Denmark recording deteriorations in perceptions of criminality.
• Militarisation showed a long-term improvement, with military expenditure as a percentage of GDP falling in 102 countries since 2008.
• Armed services personnel per 100,000 people declined from 458 in 2008 to 396 in 2018, with 118 countries improving and 33 deteriorating.

Conclusion

The 2018 GPI highlights a world in which tensions and conflicts remain unresolved, especially in the Middle East, leading to a sustained decline in peacefulness. While militarisation has improved, the economic and social costs of violence continue to rise, emphasizing the need for systemic solutions to foster Positive Peace and sustainable development. The report underscores that Peace is not just the absence of war, but a complex, multidimensional concept that requires attitudes, institutions, and structures to be nurtured for long-term stability and prosperity.