2015全球恐怖主义指数报告（英文版）_109页_7mb

Global Terrorism Index 2015 Summary

Core Content Overview

The Global Terrorism Index (GTI) 2015 provides a comprehensive analysis of the global trends and patterns in terrorism over the last 15 years, with a special emphasis on 2014. It highlights the increasing intensity and spread of terrorist activity, the economic and social costs, and the key drivers and correlates of terrorism across 162 countries.

Key Findings and Trends

Global Impact of Terrorism

• Terrorist deaths rose by 80% in 2014, reaching a record high of 32,685, marking the largest yearly increase in the last 15 years.
• Since 2000, the number of terrorism-related deaths has increased nine-fold, from 3,329 in 2000 to 32,685 in 2014.
• Terrorism is highly concentrated, with five countries (Iraq, Nigeria, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Syria) accounting for 78% of all deaths in 2014.
• 11 countries experienced more than 500 terrorism-related deaths in 2014, a 120% increase from 2013.
• Nigeria had the largest increase in deaths from terrorism, rising by over 300% to 7,512 fatalities.
• Boko Haram became the most deadly terrorist group in the world in 2014, surpassing ISIL.

Targeting Trends

• Private citizens became the main targets of terrorist attacks, with a 172% increase in deaths compared to a 80% increase in total deaths.
• Religious figures and institutions saw a 11% decrease in deaths, while attacks on private citizens rose sharply.

Foreign Fighters

• Between 2011 and 2015, an estimated 25,000 to 30,000 foreign fighters from 100 different countries arrived in Iraq and Syria.
• In the first half of 2015, over 7,000 new recruits joined the conflict.
• Europe contributed 21% of foreign fighters, while MENA countries accounted for 50%, and Turkey for 4%.

Western Countries

• Terrorism is rare in the West, with only 0.5% of all deaths from terrorism occurring there since 2000 (excluding 9/11).
• Lone wolf attacks account for 70% of all terrorist deaths in the West since 2006.
• Islamic fundamentalism is not the main driver of lone wolf attacks; instead, right-wing extremists, nationalists, anti-government elements, and other political extremists are more prevalent.

Economic Costs of Terrorism

• The economic cost of terrorism reached US$52.9 billion in 2014, a 61% increase from the previous year and a ten-fold increase since 2000.
• Homicide and violent crime caused 32 times more economic loss and 13 times more deaths than terrorism.
• The costs of government counterterrorism efforts are significant, with global national security expenditure estimated at US$117 billion.

Correlates and Drivers of Terrorism

• Political violence and ongoing conflict are strongly correlated with terrorism:
  • 92% of all terrorist attacks occurred in countries where state-sponsored political violence was widespread.
  • 88% of all attacks occurred in countries experiencing violent conflicts.
• Lack of respect for human rights, corruption, weak business environments, and group grievances are also linked to terrorism.
• In OECD countries, socio-economic factors such as youth unemployment, confidence in the press, faith in democracy, drug crime, and attitudes toward immigration are key drivers.
• In non-OECD countries, history of armed conflict, ongoing conflict, corruption, and weak business environments are more strongly correlated with terrorism.

Expert Contributions

• Dr. Christina Schori Liang (Geneva Centre for Security Policy) discusses ISIL's financial structure, including taxation systems and oil sales, estimating $11 million monthly and $500 million annually.
• Dr. Andrew Glazzard and Raffaello Pantucci (Royal United Services Institute) and Dr. Anne Aly (Edith Cowan University) explore defining and measuring terrorism.
• Dr. Khalid Koser and Amy E. Cunningham (Global Community Engagement and Resilience Fund) examine the link between migration, violent extremism, and terrorism.
• Georgia Holmer (United States Institute of Peace) discusses government approaches to managing returning foreign fighters.

Methodology and Context

• The GTI is based on the Global Terrorism Database (GTD), which includes over 140,000 terrorist incidents.
• The index uses a composite score to rank countries based on the negative impact of terrorism.
• Terrorist incidents are defined as intentional acts of violence or threat of violence by non-state actors.
• "Doubt terrorism proper" is excluded from the analysis due to insufficient information to confirm the incident's nature.

Conclusion

The 2015 GTI report underscores the growing intensity and spread of global terrorism, highlighting the need for contextual understanding of its drivers and correlates. While terrorism is highly concentrated, it is spreading to new regions, and lone wolf attacks are becoming more prevalent in the West. The report also stresses the importance of addressing underlying socio-economic and political grievances to effectively combat terrorism.