CSIS-美国不断升级的恐怖主义问题（英文）-2020.6-10页_501kb

Summary of "The Escalating Terrorism Problem in the United States"

Core Content

This document, authored by Seth G. Jones, Catrina Doxsee, and Nicholas Harrington, presents an analysis of the evolving terrorism landscape in the United States from 1994 to May 2020. It highlights the increasing threat posed by right-wing extremists and discusses the implications of this trend for the coming year, particularly in the context of the 2020 presidential election and the ongoing effects of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Main Types of Terrorism

The report categorizes terrorism into three main types:

• Right-wing terrorism
• Left-wing terrorism
• Religious terrorism

Right-wing Terrorism

• Right-wing extremists have been the most significant source of terrorism in the U.S., accounting for the majority of attacks and plots since 1994.
• Between January 1 and May 8, 2020, right-wing attacks and plots made up over 90% of all fatalities from terrorism.
• The three main subgroups of right-wing extremists are:
  • White supremacists: They believe in racial superiority and often promote the "Great Replacement" conspiracy, which claims that white populations are being replaced by minorities. Groups like the Atomwaffen Division (AWD) and the Rise Above Movement (RAM) are highlighted.
  • Anti-government extremists: These groups, such as the Three Percenters and the Sovereign Citizen movement, view the government as corrupt and seek to overthrow it. They often blend with white supremacist ideologies.
  • Incels (Involuntary Celibates): This loosely organized group of young males believes in a hierarchical society based on physical characteristics and has committed acts of violence against women.

Right-wing extremists often operate in a decentralized manner, using online platforms for recruitment, communication, and planning. They are also influenced by foreign extremist groups, such as the Islamic State and al-Qaeda, and have adopted some of their tactics.

Left-wing Terrorism

• Left-wing terrorism includes anarchists and groups like Antifa, which are decentralized and oppose government, capitalism, and globalization.
• Anarchists often target businesses and institutions they view as exploiting the environment or society.
• Antifa is a decentralized network that opposes far-right extremism and has been involved in violent counter-protests, often using improvised weapons and disguises.
• Examples include attacks on far-right demonstrations in Berkeley, CA, and Charlottesville, VA.

Religious Terrorism

• Religious terrorism in the U.S. is primarily linked to Salafi-jihadist groups such as the Islamic State and al-Qaeda.
• While the threat is not as severe as in some European countries, it remains a concern.
• Recent incidents include the 2019 attack by Mohammed Saeed Alshamrani, a Saudi air force cadet inspired by al-Qaeda, who killed three people in Pensacola, Florida.

Key Implications for the Next Year

The report suggests that the terrorism threat in the U.S. will likely increase in the coming year due to several factors:

• 2020 Presidential Election: The election is expected to heighten polarization and anger, which may be exploited by extremists. Both far-right and far-left groups could resort to violence, depending on the outcome.
• Covid-19 Pandemic: The economic and social disruptions caused by the pandemic may fuel extremist sentiments. Far-right groups have opposed public health measures, while some anti-vaxxers on both sides have threatened violence.
• Social and Political Tensions: The rise in violence at protests, such as those following the death of George Floyd, indicates that extremists from all sides are using such events as a pretext for terrorism.

Conclusion

The U.S. faces a growing terrorism threat, primarily from right-wing extremists. While religious and left-wing terrorism exist, they are less prevalent and less lethal compared to right-wing attacks. The report underscores the need for greater societal vigilance, improved social media regulation, and political restraint to counter the spread of disinformation and extremist ideologies. The combination of political polarization, economic hardship, and public health measures is likely to further exacerbate the situation in the coming year.

Key Statistics

• Total terrorist plots and attacks (1994–2020): 893
• Right-wing attacks and plots (2019): 44 incidents
• Right-wing attacks and plots (Jan–May 2020): 53 incidents
• Total fatalities from religious terrorism: 3,086 (primarily due to 9/11)
• Total fatalities from right-wing terrorism: 335
• Total fatalities from left-wing terrorism: 22
• Total fatalities from ethnonationalist terrorism: 5

References

• The data set was compiled by the CSIS Transnational Threats Project.
• The report references several real-world examples, including the Oklahoma City bombing and the Christchurch and El Paso shootings.
• It also highlights the use of online platforms by extremists for recruitment and planning.