2017全球恐怖主义指数（英文版）-5mb

Global Terrorism Index 2017 Summary

Core Content

The Global Terrorism Index (GTI) 2017 is a comprehensive report measuring the global impact of terrorism over the past 17 years (2000–2016). It is produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP) using data from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD), maintained by the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START). The GTI provides a composite score to rank countries based on the impact of terrorism, with a score from 0 to 10, where 0 indicates no impact and 10 represents the highest measurable impact.

Main Findings

• Global Decline in Terrorism: The number of terrorism-related deaths decreased by 22% from the 2014 peak, with 25,673 deaths recorded in 2016.
• Regional Trends:
  • The Middle East, North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, and South Asia accounted for 94% of all terrorism deaths.
  • Central America and the Caribbean were the least affected, with only 12 deaths recorded in 2016.
• Country-Level Impact:
  • The top five countries most impacted by terrorism in 2016 were Iraq, Afghanistan, Nigeria, Syria, and Pakistan.
  • Nigeria saw the largest reduction in deaths (80% decrease due to Boko Haram's decline).
  • Iraq recorded a 40% increase in terrorism deaths, largely due to intensified ISIL activity.
• OECD Member Countries:
  • Terrorism deaths in OECD countries accounted for 1% of global deaths in 2016.
  • ISIL was the main driver of terrorism in OECD countries, responsible for 75% of all deaths since 2014.
  • The number of deaths in OECD countries dropped significantly in the first half of 2017 compared to the whole of 2016.
• Terrorist Tactics:
  • Attacks have become simpler and more targeted at non-traditional, softer civilian targets.
  • Over 60% of attacks in OECD countries in 2016 were ISIL-directed or inspired.
  • The number of lone actor attacks increased, with the U.S. experiencing the most.

Key Trends

• Terrorism and Conflict: 99% of all terrorism-related deaths occurred in countries with high levels of conflict or political terror.
• ISIL's Decline: Despite battlefield losses, ISIL increased its use of suicide attacks and civilian targeting in 2016.
• Political Crackdowns: Countries like Egypt and Turkey saw sharp increases in terrorism following government actions.
• Economic Impact: The global economic cost of terrorism in 2016 was US$84 billion, representing a 7% decrease from 2015 and a 19% decrease from 2014. This cost is relatively small compared to the total economic impact of violence, which reached $14.3 trillion in 2016.
• Terrorist Groups:
  • The four deadliest groups (ISIL, Boko Haram, al-Qaeda, and the Taliban) were responsible for 59% of all deaths.
  • ISIL's revenue declined threefold between 2015 and 2016 due to territorial losses.
  • Many terrorist groups end due to internal splintering, defeat, or achieving political goals.

Characteristics of Terrorists

• Terrorists come from diverse backgrounds and may have varying levels of education, income, and political or religious awareness.
• Foreign fighters and lone actors are significant contributors to terrorism, especially in OECD countries.
• The GTI includes only non-state actors and excludes state-sponsored terrorism.

Expert Contributions

• Insights from experts highlight the evolving nature of terrorism, including:
  • Leaderless jihad as a growing threat.
  • The importance of rehabilitation and reintegration of terrorism offenders.
  • Preventing violent extremism through community engagement.
  • The role of cultural and political factors in shaping terrorist activity.

Methodology

• The GTI defines terrorism as the threatened or actual use of illegal force and violence by non-state actors to achieve political, economic, religious, or social goals.
• An incident is classified as terrorist if it meets three criteria: intentionality, use of violence or threat of violence, and involvement of sub-national actors.
• The GTI score includes the impact of terrorist attacks from the prior five years.

Conclusion

• While there has been a global decline in terrorism-related deaths, the spread of terrorism has increased, with more countries experiencing at least one death.
• The GTI underscores the importance of understanding the economic and social costs of terrorism and the need for inclusive policies and effective counterterrorism strategies.
• The report aims to inform positive debates on the future of terrorism and guide policy responses based on comprehensive data analysis.