2015全球恐怖主义指数报告（英文版）_111页-7mb

Global Terrorism Index 2015 Summary

Core Content

The 2015 Global Terrorism Index (GTI) is a comprehensive report by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) that measures the impact of terrorism across 162 countries. It uses data from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD), maintained by the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START), to provide an ordinal ranking of nations based on the negative effects of terrorism, including lives lost, injuries, property damage, and psychological trauma.

Main Findings

Global Trends in Terrorism

• The total number of terrorism-related deaths in 2014 increased by 80% compared to 2013, reaching 32,685, the highest level since 2000.
• Since 2000, the number of terrorism-related deaths has increased nine-fold, from 3,329 to 32,685.
• Nigeria recorded the largest increase in terrorism-related deaths, with a 300% rise to 7,512 fatalities.
• Boko Haram overtook ISIL as the most deadly terrorist group in the world, with 6,644 deaths in 2014.
• Five countries (Iraq, Nigeria, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Syria) accounted for 78% of all terrorism-related deaths in 2014.
• The number of countries with over 500 terrorism-related deaths increased by 120%, from 5 in 2013 to 11 in 2014.

Targeting Trends

• There was an 11% decrease in deaths of religious figures and worshipers.
• Private citizens became a more frequent target, with a 172% increase in their deaths compared to the total.
• Lone wolf attacks accounted for 70% of all terrorism-related deaths in the West since 2006, indicating a shift from group-based attacks.

Economic Costs

• The economic cost of terrorism reached US$52.9 billion in 2014, a 61% increase from 2013 and a ten-fold increase since 2000.
• The economic cost of terrorism is lower than other forms of violence, such as homicide and violent crime, which caused 32 times more losses and 13 times more deaths.

Drivers and Correlates

• Political violence and ongoing conflict are strongly correlated with terrorism. 92% of all terrorist attacks between 1989 and 2014 occurred in countries with widespread state-sponsored political violence.
• 88% of attacks occurred in countries involved in violent conflicts.
• Right-wing extremism, nationalism, anti-government sentiment, and supremacy ideologies were more prevalent as drivers of lone wolf attacks in the West than Islamic fundamentalism.
• Refugee crises are closely linked to terrorism, with 10 of 11 countries experiencing over 500 deaths also having the highest levels of refugees and internally displaced people.

Foreign Fighters

• Between 2011 and 2015, an estimated 25,000 to 30,000 foreign fighters from 100 countries arrived in Iraq and Syria.
• Over 7,000 new recruits arrived in the first half of 2015.
• Europe contributed 21% of all foreign fighters, while MENA countries made up 50%, and Turkey contributed 4%.

Key Sections and Contributions

1. Results

• Highlights the increase in terrorism-related deaths and the geographic concentration of terrorist activity.
• Provides country rankings based on the GTI score, with Iraq ranked first at 10, followed by Afghanistan and Nigeria.

2. Trends

• Analyzes changes in terrorist activity patterns, including the increasing targeting of private citizens.
• Examines the evolution of tactics and the flow of foreign fighters into Iraq and Syria.

3. Terrorism in Western Countries

• Notes that most terrorism-related deaths occur outside the West.
• Focuses on lone wolf attacks, the refugee crisis, and the impact of terrorism on Western societies.

4. Economic Costs of Terrorism

• Details the economic losses from terrorism and compares them to other forms of violence.
• Emphasizes the importance of counterterrorism spending, which totaled US$117 billion globally in 2014.

5. Correlates & Drivers of Terrorism

• Explores the link between political terror and terrorism.
• Identifies common drivers such as corruption, political instability, lack of respect for human rights, and group grievances.
• Highlights the differences in drivers between OECD and non-OECD countries.

6. Expert Contributions

• Includes insights from leading academics on topics such as defining terrorism, measuring its impact, migration and extremism, and returning foreign fighters.
• Offers contextual analysis and policy recommendations for addressing terrorism.

Conclusion

• The report underscores the increasing intensity and spread of global terrorism.
• It stresses the importance of addressing underlying causes such as political instability, corruption, and group grievances to effectively counter terrorism.
• The GTI serves as a tool for policy-making, providing data-driven insights into the economic and social costs of terrorism and its correlates.

Key Figures

• Total terrorism-related deaths in 2014: 32,685
• Increase in deaths from 2013: 80%
• Top 5 countries by deaths: Iraq, Nigeria, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Syria
• Economic cost of terrorism in 2014: US$52.9 billion
• Global national security expenditure: US$117 billion
• Number of countries with at least one death: 67
• Number of countries with over 500 deaths: 11
• Number of countries with no deaths: 95

Methodology and Data Sources

• The GTI uses the GTD, which contains over 140,000 terrorist incidents.
• It aggregates data on geographic activity, attack methods, organisations involved, and national context.
• The report includes annexes detailing methodology, foreign fighter data, economic cost analysis, and correlations.

Contextual Note

• While terrorism is a significant issue, it is much less deadly than other forms of violence, such as homicide, which accounts for 437,000 deaths annually.
• The GTI aims to inform policy and foster a constructive debate on the future of terrorism and its prevention.