2011年-世界发展银行全球_Does_the_Internet_Reduce_Corruption__Evidence_from_US_States_and_across_Countries_31页_421kb

Summary: Does the Internet Reduce Corruption? Evidence from U.S. States and across Countries

Core Content

This paper investigates whether the Internet has a causal impact on reducing corruption by analyzing data from U.S. states and a cross-section of countries. The authors propose that the Internet, as a General Purpose Technology (GPT), can act as a tool to suppress corruption through multiple channels, including economic growth, human capital accumulation, information dissemination, and the implementation of E-government.

The main hypothesis is that the Internet reduces corruption by enabling more efficient and transparent governance, thereby limiting opportunities for corrupt practices. To test this hypothesis, the authors use an instrumental variables (IV) approach, where lightning density is used as an exogenous instrument for Internet diffusion. This is based on the idea that lightning activity causes power disruptions, which increase the costs and reduce the productivity of IT capital, thus slowing the adoption of the Internet.

Main Points

• Hypothesis: The Internet can reduce corruption by improving governance, economic growth, human capital, and transparency.
• Data Sources:
  • U.S. state-level data on corruption convictions and Internet penetration.
  • Cross-country data using the ICRG corruption index and global lightning density data.
• Methodology:
  • The authors use a reduced-form regression model to estimate the relationship between changes in Internet use and changes in corruption levels.
  • They employ a 2SLS IV approach with lightning density as an instrument for Internet diffusion.
• Key Equation:
  $$
  \Delta C_i = \alpha_0 + \alpha_1 \Delta INTERNET_i + \alpha_2 C_{initial,i} + \varepsilon_i
  $$
  where $\alpha_1$ is the coefficient of interest, testing whether Internet use reduces corruption.

Key Findings

• Lightning as an Instrument: Lightning density is a strong exogenous instrument for Internet diffusion. Areas with higher lightning activity experience slower Internet adoption due to increased costs and reduced productivity of IT capital.
• Falsification Test: The correlation between lightning density and corruption changes only after 1991, the year the World Wide Web was launched. This supports the validity of the instrument, as it implies no pre-existing correlation between lightning and corruption.
• Empirical Results:
  • Both OLS and 2SLS estimates show that increased Internet use from the 1990s to 2006 is associated with reduced corruption in the U.S. and globally.
  • The U.S. results are statistically more robust than the cross-country findings.
  • The results suggest that the Internet's impact on corruption is not limited to the U.S. and may generalize to other countries.

Key Information

• Lightning and Power Disruptions: Lightning activity causes power surges and sags, which damage IT equipment and increase user costs, thereby reducing the speed of Internet diffusion.
• Instrument Validity: The authors ensure that lightning density is not correlated with corruption levels before 1991, supporting its use as a valid instrument.
• Control Variables: The initial level of corruption is included as a control variable to account for mean reversion and omitted variable bias.
• E-government Example: The Bhoomi program in India is cited as an example of how E-government systems can reduce corruption by eliminating the need for bureaucratic intermediaries.
• Theoretical Foundations:
  • The Internet is a GPT that can influence economic growth and human capital.
  • Information dissemination via the Internet increases the risk of detection for corrupt actors.
  • E-government reduces bureaucratic discretion and enhances transparency.

Conclusion

The study concludes that the Internet has had a causal impact on reducing corruption, both within the U.S. and internationally. The use of lightning density as an instrument provides robust evidence of this effect, suggesting that the Internet's diffusion is exogenous to corruption levels. The findings contribute to the literature on the determinants of corruption and the role of information technology in governance.