2018年Q1全球人才市场季刊（英文版）_7页_750kb

报告摘要

2018 Q1 Global Talent Market Summary

Core Content Overview

The first quarter of 2018 presents a mixed outlook for the global talent market, with varying economic conditions across different regions. The Americas, APAC, and Europe show differing trends in economic growth, labor market dynamics, and employment policies, while new regulations and technological advancements like blockchain are shaping the future of workforce management.

Americas Regional Growth

United States

Economic Outlook: The US economy is expected to benefit from the new tax and regulatory changes and strong business sentiment.
Labor Market: Ongoing robust job creation is expected to further bolster the labor market, with unemployment continuing to decline.
Unemployment Trends: Unemployment is projected to average nearly 12% in 2018 and peak above 14% by 2020.
Labor Force Participation: Participation rates have significantly declined over the past decade due to the emigration of young Puerto Ricans, a trend likely to continue.

Brazil

GDP Growth: Brazil's GDP growth is set to accelerate in 2018, but political issues will likely delay a full economic rebound.
Labor Market: The labor market is creating new jobs, but recovery from the 2015-2016 employment losses will take time.

Mexico

Economic Outlook: The outlook for Mexico remains subdued due to the need to control deficit and inflation, leading to tighter fiscal and monetary policies.
NAFTA Renegotiation: Additional constraints may arise from the renegotiation of NAFTA.

Canada

Economic Outlook: After a strong 2017, the Canadian economy is forecast to cool slightly in 2018 due to a contraction in mining output.
Labor Market: Despite the slowdown, the healthy economy will support steady job creation and a decrease in unemployment.

Puerto Rico

Economic Crisis: Puerto Rico's economic outlook has been downgraded, with GDP expected to contract by more than 4% in 2018 after a similar contraction in 2017.
Labor Market: The labor market remains weak, with a significant decline in labor force participation.

APAC Regional Growth

Australia

GDP Growth: Australian GDP growth is expected to rise to 2.6% in 2018, driven by increased natural gas production.
Labor Market: Job creation remains healthy, but sluggish wage growth is expected to persist.

China

Economic Growth: Economic growth remains robust, but a slight slowdown is expected in 2018 due to policy objectives like financial risk mitigation and pollution control.

India

Economic Growth: India's economic growth is expected to improve in FY2018 as domestic demand recovers from the 2016 currency ban and 2017 GST introduction.
Maternity Leave: The Maternity Benefit Amendment Act 2017 increases paid maternity leave to 26 weeks for women in factories, mines, and commercial establishments with 10 or more employees.

Japan

GDP Growth: Japan's GDP growth is forecast at 1.5% in 2018, with stronger external demand but weaker domestic spending.
Labor Market: The labor market remains tight, potentially leading to higher wage growth and consumer activity.
Retirement Age: Fixed-term employees can apply for permanent employment after five years of continuous service with the same employer.

Europe Regional Growth

France

GDP Growth: France's GDP growth reached a six-year high in 2017, driven by domestic demand.
Labor Market: The labor market is expected to continue improving, supported by labor market reforms.

Germany

Economic Outlook: The German economy continues to accelerate in 2018, with supportive domestic factors and improving global growth prospects.
Labor Market: Unemployment is on a downward trend, and the labor market remains strong.

UK

Economic Outlook: Brexit-related uncertainty is dampening consumer and business activity, holding back economic growth in 2018.
Labor Market: Job growth is expected to slow, and unemployment may rise as the year progresses.

Portugal

Economic Outlook: Portugal's economy continued to rebound in 2017, with GDP growth at 2.7%, the highest since 2000.
Labor Market: A slight cooldown is predicted for 2018, but growth is expected to remain healthy at 2.3%. Unemployment is on a downward trend.

Italy

Youth Employment: The Bonus Occupazione provides a tax advantage for companies hiring young people on a permanent basis, including conversion of fixed-term contracts to permanent ones.

Global Workforce Trends

Working Past Retirement Age

Global Trends: A majority of workers globally expect to continue working in retirement, with only a third planning to stop immediately.
Employment Rates: In developed countries, more than a quarter of people aged 65-69 are still working, up from 16% in 2000. 15% of people aged 70-74 are still working, up from 9% in 2000.
Country Variations: Employment rates vary widely. In Japan, 25% of people aged 70-74 are still working, while in France, only 3% are.

Key Employment Policies

Canada: Ontario Bill 148 (Fair Workplaces, Better Jobs Act, 2017) mandates equal pay for part-time, temporary, and seasonal employees performing the same job as full-time employees.
Puerto Rico: New regulations require employees with "catastrophic illness" to receive up to six days of paid leave, and prohibit using sick leave to measure efficiency in performance evaluations.
Iceland: Iceland became the first country to make it illegal to pay women less than men for equal work, effective January 1, 2018. Employers with 250 or more workers must obtain equal pay certification by the end of 2018.
South Africa: The Labour Laws Amendment Bill provides at least 10 days of unpaid paternity, adoption, and surrogacy leave for all employees not qualifying for maternity leave.
India: The Maternity Benefit Amendment Act 2017 increases paid maternity leave to 26 weeks for women in certain industries.

Blockchain in Workforce Solutions

What is Blockchain?

Blockchain is a decentralized, peer-to-peer ledger system that securely records and verifies digital transactions without intermediaries.

Advantages of Blockchain

Verification: Ensures the authenticity of data.
Transparency: Provides a clear and open record of transactions.
Traceability: Enables tracking of data across the supply chain.
Security: Reduces fraud due to its decentralized nature.
Collaboration: Facilitates trust and cooperation among parties.
Scaleability: Supports high volumes of transactions.
Neutrality: Operates without bias.
Trust: Enhances confidence in transactions.
Speed: Accelerates processes like background checks and contract issuance.
Cost: Reduces administrative and operational costs.
Privacy: Offers secure and confidential data handling.

Potential Applications in Recruiting

Background Checks: Automate and verify the accuracy of background checks.
Contract Management: Streamline the process of issuing and managing contracts for freelance workers.
Efficiency: Improve the efficiency and accuracy of talent acquisition and management processes.

Conclusion

The 2018 Q1 global talent market is characterized by regional disparities, with the APAC region leading economic growth and the Americas showing mixed performance. Labor markets in many countries are tightening, supporting wage growth and job creation, while political and economic uncertainties in some regions, such as the US and the UK, pose challenges. Additionally, new employment policies and the potential of blockchain technology are reshaping how work is structured and managed globally.

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