20180806-法国巴黎银行-BRAZIL__ELECTION_TRACKER_78页_4mb

报告摘要

MDB has the largest electoral fund among parties, but it is unlikely to be available for campaigning, forcing Henrique Meirelles to self-finance.
Marina Silva (REDE) and Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) have limited electoral funds for campaigning.
Electoral funds are shared among multiple candidates (deputies, senators, governors), and the figures do not represent individual availability.

Bolsonaro (PSL) and Alckmin (PSDB) have the highest spontaneous voting intentions.
Meirelles (MDB) has the highest overall voting intention with 16%.
Marina (REDE) has 2.4%, and Ciro (PDT) has 5.0%.
The presence of Lula (PT) significantly affects voting intentions, as his supporters are mostly undecided when he is not in the race.

If Lula (PT) does not run, Marina Silva (REDE), Bolsonaro (PSL), Alckmin (PSDB), and Ciro Gomes (PDT) could be in the second round.
Fernando Haddad (PT) is considered as a potential substitute for Lula.
Lula remains the favorite in all scenarios despite high rejection levels.

There is a high level of rejection among all candidates.
Lula (PT) has the highest rejection level among the main potential candidates.

30.6% of Brazilians had no internet access in 2016, which is still a significant portion of the electorate.
69.4% had internet access, and this group tends to rely more on social media for information about candidates.
TV and Radio are the main sources of information for those without internet access, often lower-income individuals.

Unemployment, corruption, and lack of health services are the main problems perceived by voters.
These issues are likely to influence voting behavior significantly.

44% of voters are pessimistic about the 2018 elections.
23% are neutral, 20% optimistic, and 13% don't know or didn't answer.

Electoral TV and Radio programs begin on 31 August and end on 4 October for the first round, and 25 October for the second round.
TV time is divided between candidates based on coalition size in the first round (90% of time), while the second round sees equal distribution (10% each).
PSDB has the most TV time with 5 min 32 sec (44%), followed by PT with 2 min 29 sec (20%) and PDT with 37 sec (5.0%).

In 2018, private donations by individuals are allowed, while corporate donations are prohibited.
Public funds are allocated based on the budget and include BRL1.4bn.
Spending ceilings are in place for campaigns.
In 2020, the rules will increase the threshold for campaign funding and shift the seat distribution from coalitions to individual parties.

PDT (Ciro Gomes): Left-wing, coalition includes AVANTE.
PT (Lula): Left-wing, coalition includes PROS and PCdoB.
REDE (Marina Silva): Centre-left.
PSDB (Alckmin): Centre-right, coalition includes PSD, PR, DEM, PRB, PPS, and PP.
MDB (Meirelles): Centre, coalition includes PSDB.
PSL (Bolsonaro): Right-wing, coalition includes PRTB.

Ciro Gomes (PDT):
- Political background: Former state deputy, known for progressive policies.
- Economic advisors: Roberto M. Unger, Nelson Marconi, Mauro Benevides Filho.
- Academic background: Degrees in Economics and Law from prestigious institutions.
- Social media popularity: Over 0.3 million likes.
- Key statements: Emphasizes the importance of associating workers' interests with the productive sector and opposing speculation.
Lula (PT):
- Political background: Former president, involved in the "Car-Wash" scandal.
- Academic background: Basic level.
- Social media popularity: Over 3.5 million likes.
- Lula's appeal: His potential candidacy is under scrutiny due to legal issues.
- Economic team: Likely to include Fernando Haddad.

Economic policies are a major concern, with increasing purchasing power as a top priority.
Government intervention is a key topic, with a focus on public services, economic stability, and social equity.

Electoral TV and Radio programs start on 31 August.
First round ends on 4 October, and second round ends on 25 October.
TV and Radio time is allocated based on coalition size in the first round, and equally among candidates in the second round.

Different polling institutes (e.g., Datafolha, Ibope) use varying methodologies, leading to different results.
Datafolha conducts interviews in public places, while Ibope does so at home.
Institute bias is evident in the 2014 election, with deviations from average poll outcomes.

Coalitions influence seat distribution in the Lower House.
Campaign funding rules evolve over time, with increased thresholds and changes in funding sources.

Voter distribution varies by region and municipality size.
Municipality size influences the type of electoral advertisement (TV vs. radio) and access to information.

TV and Radio remain crucial for voters without internet access.
Social media is increasingly influential for those with internet access, who seek more detailed candidate profiles.
Google Trends shows a surge in interest for election-related content as the campaign progresses.

Coalitions play a significant role in determining the allocation of electoral advertisement time and campaign funding.
Lula is a central figure in the election, with his potential candidacy affecting the voting intentions of his supporters.
Bolsonaro, Alckmin, and Ciro Gomes are the leading candidates in the first round.
Meirelles (MDB) and Marina (REDE) have lower but still significant support.
Voter sentiment is largely pessimistic, with concerns over economic issues, corruption, and social inequality.
Internet access and social media are becoming more important for voter engagement and information gathering.
Electoral advertisement is a key tool for reaching voters, especially in the absence of internet access.
Political reform and campaign funding rules are evolving, with more emphasis on public funds and spending ceilings in the future.