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MEXICO: ELECTION TRACKER SUMMARY

Core Content

The 2018 Mexican presidential election is expected to be a competitive race with Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) leading in polls. The report outlines key trends in voter preferences, party dynamics, and the political landscape in Mexico.

Main Polling Trends

• AMLO (MORENA) leads in most polls with a significant lead over other candidates.
• FRENTE (PAN-PRD coalition) is the second most preferred, while PRI is third.
• Margarita Zavala, running as an independent, is the fourth in most polls.
• The results vary across different polls, but the general consensus is that AMLO has a strong lead.

Voter Preferences

• AMLO faces resistance from a large section of the electorate, but this has decreased compared to early 2017.
• PRI may choose a lesser-known candidate to avoid high rejection rates.
• FRENTE appeals to middle-class voters, and its candidates are seen as having a broad base of support.
• Zavala has a strong base of support among PAN voters but is not as appealing to others.

Party Preferences

• FRENTE has potential for broader support due to its coalition of PAN and PRD.
• Zavala's exit from PAN to run as an independent has not led to significant shifts in party dynamics.
• PRI has strong local support but faces high rejection rates due to its long rule and perceived corruption.

Congress and Senate

• All seats in Congress and Senate are up for election in 2018.
• MORENA is projected to gain around 20% of the Lower House votes but lacks the structure and territorial reach to win more than 25% of seats.
• The formation of alliances is crucial for legislative support.

Polling Methodology

• Parametria, Buendía y Laredo, ISE/GEA, Mitofsky, and El Financiero are the main pollsters.
• Polls vary in methodology and sample size, but they all reflect similar trends.

Voter Profiles

• Education, Income, and Age: The report highlights that 5 in 10 Mexicans are frequent internet users, indicating the importance of digital outreach.
• Geographical Location: Mexico City is a key electoral region, home to 1 in 4 voters.
• Public Concerns: Insecurity, corruption, and economic issues are the main concerns of Mexican voters.

Party Platforms

• MORENA (AMLO): Focuses on expanding the role of PEMEX and SOEs, continuing NAFTA, boosting public investment, and increasing minimum wage.
• PAN (Frente): Supports energy reform, promotes trade with ex-NAFTA countries, and aims to reduce bureaucracy.
• PRI: Seeks to deepen reforms, maintain fiscal conservatism, and expand conditional transference schemes.

Candidate Selection Mechanisms

• MORENA is choosing its candidate through a council of party elites and core constituency.
• Frente is considering open primaries for PAN and elite selection for PRD.
• Independents have until February 13 to gather signatures for ballot access.

Key Candidates

• AMLO: Leads in polls with a strong base of support.
• Margarita Zavala: Runs as an independent with strong PAN support but is not as appealing to others.
• Ricardo Anaya: PAN leader with strong support from PRD.
• Miguel Mancera: Former Mexico City mayor with left-leaning appeal.
• Rafael Moreno Valle: PAN governor with strong support in Puebla.
• Jaime "El Bronco": Independent candidate with high approval ratings in Nuevo León.
• Marichuy: Far-left candidate with support from indigenous groups and human rights advocates.

Historical Context

• 2006: Felipe Calderón (PAN) won with 35.9%, AMLO (PRD) with 35.3%, and Roberto Madrazo (PRI) with 22.0%.
• 2012: Enrique Peña Nieto (PRI) won with 38.2%, AMLO (PRD) with 31.6%, and Josefina Mota (PAN) with 25.7%.
• The PRI has historically held the most state governments, but faces significant rejection from voters.

Public Perceptions

• Insecurity has increased after an initial drop.
• Corruption remains a major concern, affecting all parties.
• Economy is a key issue, with inflation rising to 6% and unemployment near lows.
• Trust in institutions is low, with many voters expressing dissatisfaction.

Press Coverage

• AMLO and Anaya have the highest media exposure.
• Meade and Zavala receive mostly positive press.
• Mancera and Moreno Valle face mixed media reactions.

Conclusion

The 2018 election is expected to be a three-way race between AMLO, FRENTE, and PRI. While AMLO leads in polls, the outcome is still uncertain due to the ongoing candidate selection processes and varying voter preferences. The election will be influenced by economic concerns, public perception of corruption, and the potential for coalition formation.