20180205-法国巴黎银行-COLOMBIA__ELECTION_TRACKER_59页_5mb

报告摘要

Colombia: Election Tracker - February 2018 Summary

Core Content

The 2018 Colombian presidential elections are marked by a complex political landscape with shifting alliances and rising candidates.
Gustavo Petro, a left-wing candidate, has gained popularity, especially among the youth and lower income groups, and is seen as a threat to Sergio Fajardo's lead in polls.
Sergio Fajardo, a centre-left candidate, leads in the polls, with a strong opinion vote, but his economic policies are not yet concrete.
A right-wing coalition formed by former presidents Alvaro Uribe and Andrés Pastrana, including Marta Lucía Ramirez, Iván Duque, and Alejandro Ordoñez, is expected to strengthen once a candidate is selected.
Clara López (left-of-centre) and Humberto de la Calle (centrist) have joined forces, but López recently left Petro's campaign.

Main Candidates and Polls

Sergio Fajardo (Centre-left): Leads in polls, has high approval ratings from his time as Antioquia governor, but increased debt levels.
Gustavo Petro (Left): Rises in popularity, seen as a threat to Fajardo. His base is in Bogotá and the Caribbean, with support from lower-middle class voters.
German Vargas Lleras (Right): Strong support in rural areas, but faces high rejection rates.
Iván Duque (Centre-right): Part of the right-wing coalition, has lower national recognition.
Marta Lucía Ramirez (Centre-right): Part of the right-wing coalition, expected to be a key player in the primary.

Key Polling Data

Fajardo is the strongest in a potential second round, but the race is tightening.
Petro is gaining ground, especially in urban and younger demographics.
Vargas Lleras and Duque are expected to face challenges from the left and centre-left.
De la Calle and López are forming a "Pro-peace" alliance, which may influence the political direction.

Party Preferences and Political Spectrum

A significant portion of voters prefer right-wing parties.
Centro Democrático (Uribe's party) is a major right-wing force.
Cambio Radical and Green Party are also influential.
Independent left-wing candidates like Petro and Fajardo lack party backing, which may affect their ability to form coalitions.
National Unity (current ruling party) is leaning towards an alliance with the Liberals.

Policy Proposals

Candidate/Coalition	Macro	Pensions & Minimum Wage	Mining	Investments	Trade	Taxes	Growth
Gustavo Petro	More regressive taxation, cuts for poorer families	Social programs, new security system	Suspends nonconventional exploration	Focus on tourism and modern agriculture	Boost integration with Asia and Pacific Alliance	No tax cuts outside budget possibilities	Sustainable GDP growth
Sergio Fajardo (Coalición Colombia)	Prudent macroeconomic policies	New social security system, increase purchasing power	Suspends nonconventional exploration	Infrastructure in rural areas, 4G, public transport	Supports global value chains, evaluates trade deals	More progressive taxes, dismantle subsidies	Boost private activity, cut red tape
German Vargas Lleras (Cambio Radical)	Tax cuts, reduce evasion	Focus on private activity	No mention	No specific focus	Integration with global value chains	Reduce corporate and income taxes	Bring GDP growth to at least 5%
Iván Duque (Centro Democrático)	Tax cuts, independence of BanRep	No specific focus	No mention	No specific focus	Further integration in global value chains	Tax cuts balanced with less evasion	Bring GDP growth back to 5%
Humberto de la Calle (National Unity)	Current macroeconomic stance	No specific focus	No mention	Infrastructure projects	Review trade deals	Warranted caution on tax cuts	Lift growth via infrastructure

Voter Profiles

Youth and lower income households support Petro.
Higher income, urban groups prefer Fajardo and Duque.
Rural voters support Vargas Lleras.
Internet users are more likely to support Fajardo and Petro.
Religion plays a role, with the more centre-leaning candidates facing lower rejection rates.
90% of Colombians will not vote for former members of guerrilla or paramilitary groups.

Public Perceptions and Concerns

Insecurity is the top concern among Colombians.
Corruption and unemployment are also significant issues.
Trust in political institutions has plunged.
Many voters believe the country is heading in the wrong direction.

Election Calendar and Turnout

First Round: November 2017
Primaries: March 11, 2018
Election Day: May 2018
A higher or lower turnout could significantly impact the outcome, especially in the first round.

Coalition Dynamics

Coalición Colombia: Includes Green Party and Polo Democrático, backing Fajardo.
Pro-peace Alliance: De la Calle and López, with strong support from opinion voters.
Right-wing coalition: Includes Centro Democrático, Conservatives, and high-profile conservatives.
Vargas Lleras: May form an alliance with Centro Democrático if needed.

Conclusion

The 2018 Colombian elections are highly competitive, with Fajardo and Petro leading the polls. The right-wing coalition is expected to strengthen, while left-wing candidates face challenges in forming strong party alliances. Economic policy remains a central issue, with proposals ranging from progressive taxation to prudent fiscal management. Public concerns include insecurity, corruption, and unemployment, with many voters expressing pessimism about the country's direction. The role of internet and social media is also significant, with Fajardo and Petro having strong online followings.