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Colombia Election Tracker Summary

Core Content

This document provides an in-depth analysis of the 2018 Colombian presidential and congressional elections, focusing on voter preferences, political coalitions, candidate profiles, and public perceptions. It outlines the dynamics between different political groups and the influence of local factors on election outcomes.

Main Candidates and Their Positions

• Gustavo Petro (Left-wing):

  • Has gained significant support from the youth and lower-income households.
  • Known for his pro-interventionist economic views and concerns about Venezuela's situation.
  • Has a high level of recognition due to his background as a journalist and economist.
  • Attracts voters from the Green and Polo parties.

• Sergio Fajardo (Centre-left):

  • Has seen a decline in support, losing 4 percentage points since January 2018.
  • Competes with Petro for disaffected voters.
  • Has a strong base in Bogotá and Medellín.
  • Has a more progressive stance on economic policy, advocating for higher taxes on the wealthy.

• Iván Duque (Centre-right):

  • Has gained 8 percentage points in the polls since January 2018.
  • Benefits from the strong party machinery of the Centro Democrático.
  • Backed by former president Álvaro Uribe, who remains very popular.
  • Advocates for tax cuts and fiscal responsibility.

• Germán Vargas Lleras (Right-wing):

  • Has a high negative perception rate.
  • Popular in rural areas.
  • Competes with Fajardo and Petro for disaffected voters.

Key Polling Trends

• Petro has gained 5 percentage points in the polls.
• Fajardo has lost 4 percentage points.
• Duque has gained 8 percentage points.
• Vargas Lleras has lost 3 percentage points.

Political Coalitions

• Coalición Colombia (Petro and Fajardo):

  • Fajardo has joined forces with the Greens' Claudia López to consolidate support.
  • The coalition aims to attract disaffected voters.
  • Petro is seen as a potential threat due to his left-leaning policies.

• Centro Democrático (Duque):

  • Strong party machinery.
  • Duque faces a primary against Marta Ramírez and Alejandro Ordonez.
  • Likely to benefit from good results in the congressional elections.

• Cambio Radical (Vargas Lleras):

  • Sliding in the polls.
  • Vargas Lleras's performance is crucial for the party's future.

Congressional Election Insights

• The left is expected to retain a minority in Congress.
• Right-wing parties are projected to dominate.
• Congressional elections are more influenced by local leaders and party machinery.
• Left-wing candidates usually perform worse in congressional elections than in presidential ones.

Voter Preferences and Demographics

• Youth and lower-income households are more supportive of Petro.
• Higher-income, urban groups tend to support Fajardo and Duque.
• Rural voters favor Vargas Lleras.
• One in three Colombians does not identify with any political party.
• Right-of-centre parties are more preferred by those who identify with a party.

Public Perceptions and Issues

• Insecurity is the top concern for Colombians.
• Corruption and unemployment are also significant issues.
• Trust in political institutions has declined.
• Many Colombians fear the country could follow Venezuela's path.

Economic Policy Proposals

Political Spectrums

• Pro-market and Pro-peace deal are key ideological positions.
• Candidates are positioned along a spectrum, with some leaning more to the left or right.

Social Media and Internet Use

• 8 out of 10 Colombians are occasional internet users.
• Social media popularity varies among candidates:
  • Gustavo Petro: 2.8 million followers
  • Sergio Fajardo: 1.03 million followers
  • Iván Duque: 220,000 followers
  • Germán Vargas Lleras: 730,000 followers
• Interest in the election peaks in the actual month of the election, according to Google trends.

Party Preferences

• Right-of-centre parties are preferred by most voters.
• Centro Democrático and Cambio Radical are the most preferred parties.
• Green and Polo parties are also significant, especially in the context of coalition support.

Conclusion

The 2018 Colombian elections are marked by a complex interplay of political coalitions, candidate popularity, and regional voter preferences. While the right-wing seems to dominate in the congressional elections, the presidential race is tight, with Petro and Fajardo leading in their respective support bases. Duque's campaign is bolstered by his party's machinery and media support, while Vargas Lleras's performance is crucial for the Conservatives. Public perceptions highlight concerns over insecurity, corruption, and unemployment, with trust in institutions at a low. Economic policies vary significantly among candidates, reflecting their ideological stances.