20180129-法国巴黎银行-BRAZIL_ELECTION_TRACKER_65页_4mb

报告摘要

Lula's Legal Status: On 24 January 2018, Lula da Silva, former President of Brazil, lost his appeal against corruption charges related to the Operation Car Wash scandal. This decision rendered him ineligible for the October 2018 presidential election.
Legal Consequences: The unanimous ruling by the Appeals Court (TRF4) means Lula can still appeal to the Superior Court (STJ) and Supreme Court (STF), but the likelihood of overturning the decision is low.
Sentencing: Lula was sentenced to 12 years and 1 month in prison and a fine of BRL1.01 million.

Lula (PT): Despite his conviction, he remains the most popular candidate, especially among his base. However, his candidacy is in doubt due to legal restrictions.
Bolsonaro (PSL): Emerged as a prominent candidate, especially after the rise in his support due to his anti-corruption stance.
Marina Silva (REDE): A potential candidate for the second round, especially if Lula's candidacy is invalidated.
Alckmin (PSDB): Likely candidate for the PSDB, with João Doria as an alternative.
Other Candidates: Includes figures like Geraldo Silveira (PDT), Luciano Huck (PPS), and others.

PT (Workers' Party): Left-wing, with Lula as the most likely candidate. Holds significant representation in Congress and local government.
PDT (Democratic Labour Party): Centre-left, with Ciro Gomes as a potential candidate.
REDE (Sustainability Network): Centre-left, with Marina Silva as the likely candidate.
PSDB (Brazilian Social Democracy Party): Centre-right, with Geraldo Alckmin and João Doria as candidates.
PSL (Social Liberal Party): Right-wing, with Bolsonaro as the likely candidate.
PPS (Socialist People's Party): Centre-left, with efforts to invite Luciano Huck.
DEM (Democrats): Right-wing, with potential to invite Luciano Huck.
NOVO (New Party): Right-wing, with João Amoêdo as the likely candidate.

TV and Radio Programs: Begin on 31 August 2018 and continue until the respective advertisement deadlines.
Ad Time Allocation:
- First Round: 10% equally divided among candidates, 90% based on coalition size.
- Second Round: 50% of daily time for each candidate.

Education, Income, and Age: Lula has a high floor of assured votes but also a high rejection level. His support is concentrated in certain demographics.
Internet Access: 42.2% of Brazilians had no internet access in 2015, making TV and radio crucial for reaching them. 57.8% had internet access, increasing the role of social media in political outreach.
Social Media Popularity:
- Lula: Over 3 million likes
- Marina Silva: Over 2.3 million likes
- Bolsonaro: Over 2.7 million likes
- Alckmin: Over 0.8 million likes

Senate Seats Up for Renewal in 2018: 2/3 of the seats are up for election.
Party Representation:
- PT: 9/81 (11.1%)
- PDT: 2/81 (2.5%)
- REDE: 1/81 (1.2%)
- PPS: 1/81 (1.2%)
- MDB: 22/81 (27.2%)
- Centrão: 19/81 (23.5%)

Electoral Advertising Rules:
- 2018: 1.5% of total valid votes; 1.0% in at least nine states; or elected at least nine congressmen in nine states.
- 2020: 1.5% of total valid votes; 1.5% in nine states; or elected nine congressmen in nine states.
Coalitions: Seat distribution is based on party coalition votes.
Campaign Funds:
- Allow private donations from individuals.
- Public funds are available with a budget of BRL1.4bn in 2018.
- Spending ceilings apply to campaigns.

The 2018 election is marked by legal challenges and the potential impact of corruption scandals on traditional politicians.
Voter behavior is influenced by media access and social media popularity.
The legal status of Lula significantly affects the Worker's Party (PT) and the overall election dynamics.
The legal and political landscape is complex, with multiple parties and potential candidates vying for influence and support.

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