20180822-法国巴黎银行-BRAZIL__ELECTION_TRACKER_80页_4mb

报告摘要

Brazil Election Tracker Summary - August 22, 2018

Core Content Overview

This report provides an analysis of the 2018 Brazilian presidential election, focusing on the voting intentions of main candidates, political structure, media influence, and voter profiles.

Main Candidates and Voting Prospects (1st Round)

Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) has seen increased spontaneous voting intentions, putting him in the spotlight.
Marina Silva (REDE), Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB), and Ciro Gomes (PDT) are also key candidates.
Fernando Haddad (PT) has seen increased support when informed of Lula's endorsement.
Lula (PT), though not running, has the highest rejection level among potential candidates.

Political Structure and Coalitions

PSDB coalition has the largest share in the political structure and the most TV and radio airtime.
The coalition's support is mainly from local party organizations, but regional divergence is likely.
Alckmin (PSDB) is the most supported candidate within the coalition, with 54% direct support.
Meirelles (MDB), Marina (REDE), and Ciro (PDT) are running alone, with limited TV and radio time.

Voter Behavior and Media Influence

TV and radio advertising remains a key influence, with 38% of voters stating it will influence their decision the most.
Google Trends indicates that voter interest in the election typically increases only after August.
Social media is becoming increasingly important for voters with internet access, who tend to research candidates' profiles.

Key Voter Profiles

Education, income, and age play a role in voting intentions.
Unemployment, corruption, and lack of health services are the top concerns of voters.
44% of voters are pessimistic about the election, 23% neutral, 20% optimistic, and 13% don't know.
Internet access is a critical factor, with 69.4% of Brazilians having access in 2016, and 30.6% lacking it.

Electoral Fund and Campaigning

MDB has the largest electoral fund (BRL 61.4 million), but it's not available for campaigning.
PDT has BRL 61.4 million in electoral funds and 37 seconds of TV time (5.0%).
PT has BRL 212.2 million in electoral funds and 2 minutes 29 seconds of TV time (20%).
Campaign funds are shared among candidates, and private donations by individuals are allowed.

Political Reform and Campaign Rules

TV and radio time is allocated based on coalition size in the first round, and equally among candidates in the second round.
2018 rules for political reform include:
- 1.5% of total valid votes or 1.0% of votes in at least nine states or elected at least nine congressmen in nine states.
- Seat distribution still depends on coalition votes.
- Campaign funds include public resources (BRL 1.4 billion) and spending ceilings.

Key Figures and Parties

PDT (Democratic Labour Party):
- Candidate: Ciro Gomes
- Founded in 1979, center-left
- Current representation: 3 seats in the Senate, 19 in the Chamber of Deputies
- Coalition size in Lower House: 24 seats
- Ciro Gomes has a strong presence on social media with 0.3 million likes.
PT (Workers' Party):
- Candidate: Lula (likely not running), alternative is Fernando Haddad
- Founded in 1980, left-wing
- Current representation: 7 seats in the Senate, 2 in the Chamber of Deputies
- Coalition size in Lower House: 103 seats

Lower House and Senate Elections

All 513 seats in the Lower House are up for renewal in 2018.
2/3 of Senate seats are up for renewal in 2018, with 1/3 changing in 2022.
PDT, PT, and MDB are among the major parties in the Lower House and Senate.

Campaign Timeline

Electoral TV and Radio programs start on 31 August.
First round advertising ends on 4 October.
Second round advertising ends on 25 October.
Programs are aired three times a week, with 25-minute slots on Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday for presidential candidates and Monday, Wednesday, Friday for senators and state representatives.

Summary of Key Points

Lula's absence may lead to voter uncertainty, with some shifting to Marina Silva and Ciro Gomes.
TV and radio are still dominant in shaping voter opinions, especially for those without internet access.
Social media is becoming more influential among internet users.
Coalitions play a significant role in the distribution of campaign resources.
Voter sentiment is largely pessimistic, with concerns over economic and social issues.