20180220-法国巴黎银行-MEXICO__ELECTION_TRACKER_59页_4mb

Summary of MEXICO: ELECTION TRACKER (2018)

Core Content

The 2018 Mexican presidential election is a highly competitive race, with Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) leading in popularity. The election involves not only the presidential race but also the nationwide congressional and local elections, including the Mexico City mayoral race. The document provides a detailed analysis of voter preferences, candidate profiles, party platforms, and the political landscape in Mexico.

Main Candidates and Trends

• Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO):

  • Leads in the polls with a strong base of support, particularly among young, urban voters.
  • Has a high name recognition and is associated with left-wing policies.
  • His administration would likely focus on security, economic reforms, and welfare programs.
  • Has proposed a cabinet with key figures like Carlos Manuel Urzua Macias and Rocío Nahle.

• Ricardo Anaya (Frente/PAN):

  • Has been on an upward trend, gaining support from middle-aged voters and those who previously supported the PRD.
  • His campaign is more centrist, with a focus on economic policies and anti-corruption measures.
  • Has a lower name recognition compared to AMLO but is gaining momentum.

• José Antonio Meade (PRI):

  • Has seen a drop in rankings, despite a rise in name recognition.
  • Faces high rejection rates due to the party's long-standing rule.
  • Stronger in rural areas, which are traditional PRI strongholds.

Key Information

Voting Intentions

• AMLO has a strong lead in the polls, with 77% of voters preferring him over other candidates.
• Anaya is gaining support, especially from those who previously supported the PRD.
• Meade has dropped to third place, despite a strong base in rural areas.
• Independent candidates and undecided voters could play a pivotal role in the outcome, with 10% of the vote and 25% of the electorate respectively.

Undecided Voters

• Undecided voters make up a significant portion of the electorate and could shift their support.
• There is potential for transfers from PRD to Anaya, given their shared ideological roots.
• Independent voters may sway the election, particularly those who previously supported PAN or PRD.

Political Spectrum

• AMLO (MORENA): Left-wing, with a focus on expanding state involvement in key sectors and social programs.
• Anaya (Frente/PAN): Centrist, advocating for economic growth, regulatory agencies, and anti-corruption.
• Meade (PRI): Conservative, supporting existing reforms and fiscal consolidation.

Party Platforms

• MORENA (AMLO):
  • Promotes referendums on existing reforms.
  • Aims to expand PEMEX and SOEs.
  • Focuses on infrastructure, debt reduction, and social welfare.
• PAN (Anaya):
  • Opposes energy reform but supported it in the past.
  • Advocates for trade with NAFTA and ex-NAFTA countries.
  • Supports austerity, tax cuts, and public works.
• PRI (Meade):
  • Supports and deepens existing reforms.
  • Focuses on SMEs and conditional transfer programs.

Electoral Dynamics

• The inter-campaign period from 12 February to 29 March is a critical time for resolving internal party differences.
• The INE regulates media coverage and campaign spending, with 70% of airtime allocated based on previous election results.
• There are 59.7 million TV spots scheduled until the 2018 election day.

Voter Demographics

• Youth, men, and those who dislike the current president are more likely to support AMLO.
• Middle-aged men and women from urban centers favor Anaya.
• Rural areas support Meade, reflecting traditional PRI support.
• Mexico City, a PRD stronghold, is expected to have a fierce race between MORENA and FRENTE candidates.

Public Concerns

• Insecurity: A major concern, with AMLO's proposed amnesty policy facing strong opposition.
• Corruption: Ongoing investigations across all political parties.
• Economy: 80% of voters believe Mexico is facing an economic crisis; inflation has risen from 3% to 6% in 2017.
• NAFTA: 70% of voters want to continue with NAFTA.

Media and Social Media

• AMLO and Meade receive the most media coverage.
• Anaya's coverage has turned positive.
• Mexicans are avid internet users but consume less news online than the global average.
• Social media usage for news is relatively low, with most relying on traditional media.

Historical Context

• The document compares 2006 and 2018 election trends, highlighting changes in voter behavior and candidate popularity.
• Pollsters have a track record, with some showing more accurate predictions than others.

Conclusion

The 2018 Mexican election is a pivotal moment, with AMLO leading in popularity, Anaya gaining momentum, and Meade struggling despite a strong rural base. The role of undecided and independent voters is crucial, as they could shift the balance. The political landscape is shaped by historical trends, party ideologies, and public concerns over security, corruption, and economic issues. The election outcomes will significantly impact Mexico's future policies and governance.